Yainer Can’t Hit Offspeed This Year

We're all aware that Yainer isn't putting up his usual numbers so far in 2024 and it's the offspeed (Changeup and Splitter) Here's a quick table to show the difference from last year:

*It should be noted his SLG is lower across the board but this is on another level.

The biggest takeaway for me is that Yainer is striking out much less on offspeed but it's resulting in weakly-hit groundballs as evidenced by his negative launch angle and low exit velocity (MLB average EV is ~89). This is likely the biggest contributor to his 12% rise in ground-ball rate (44.3 to 56.4). You can see this clearly with his numbers vs the Splitter: 27 times he's seen this pitch and he has 0 Ks and 0 whiffs vs it but also 0 hits.

And of course, opponents are becoming/are aware of this. From April to May, Yainer has seen 7% less fastballs while offspeed has gone up 4% and breaking 3%.

Now I am not a hitting coach nor do I know the ins and outs of Yainer's swing so take this with a bucket of salt: while Yainer is striking out less and walking a bit more, it's coming at the expense of consistent good contact. His discipline is roughly the same as in 2023, a tad better, so combine that with this new approach and a 4% rise in chase contact rate and this is what we're getting. It might be better to sacrifice that K% for less but higher quality contact as I'd rather deal with a strikeout than a weak groundball that turns into a double play.