Widespread showers possible today, front likely to miss on Thursday

Good morning. We’re now into the second week of September. A few of us had a friendly debate on Twitter this weekend about whether August or September was the worst month of the year in Houston, weather-wise. I’m definitely on Team August, for the simple reason that at least in September there is hope for a front and a hint of fall. Matt and several others said September is the worst for the very reason that some semblance of fall should be here in September, but it often is not. So what do you think? In any case, this week will be difficult as we watch a dying front approach the area, but likely not make a significant impact on our weather.

Tuesday

For some, this will be quite a wet day. We should see on-and-off rain showers across much of the area with a moist air mass and small feature in the atmosphere that will promote rising air. Some areas may see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, while others see little to no precipitation from these hit-and-miss showers. Where it’s not raining, partly sunny skies should help to push high temperatures into the low-90s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 70s to around 80 right along the coast. Winds will be light out of the southeast.

Wednesday

This is another potentially wet day as the overall air mass remains fairly unsettled upstream, with a fairly strong front pushing into Texas. This may help generate some additional showers and thunderstorms over the Houston area, keeping highs again to around 90 degrees or perhaps a little bit higher.

Thursday

The aforementioned front will be dying as it moves toward the southeast, across Texas. How far it gets remains a big question that we just can’t answer for now.  But some of its drier air may make it into western and northwestern parts of the metro area at the surface, including places like Katy, Prairie View, and Magnolia. It will be a close call, but some of these locations may wake up to drier and slightly cooler on Thursday morning. For the rest of us—and those areas as well, most likely, it will probably be business as usual for summer, 2020. Look for highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

For now the weekend looks quite hot. We’re expecting highs in the mid-90s—we know, we know—with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances may increase on Sunday and Monday as a surge of moisture moves into the area, but our overall forecast confidence in this remains fairly low. If you’re wondering when the next front that actually pushes into Houston will arrive, I’m afraid there’s little support for one in the models until around September 20th.

Tropics

The tropics remain super active and Matt will have a full rundown for you later this morning. Fortunately, there are no immediate threats to the Gulf of Mexico.