Why we will take Will Levis at 1 (redditor essay)

I am in the camp that we need to take a QB in this draft. I don't love the idea of waiting even though ewers/williams and co are very enticing. Its been said time and time again but a lot can change in a year and its rare that a guy from one year out is still held that highly come draft time never mind lives up to the hype. I think it would be a massive mistake to roll out another year of QB by committee and I don't think casiero has that kind of time. Assuming that all happens to be true we have as I see it four options at one: will levis, Anthony Richardson, cj stroud, or bryce young. I have watched five full game cuts of each from this season multiple times and think Richardson and stroud are disqualified at 1.

Here is why:

Richardson: The most talented QB in the draft but also the most raw. Walterfootball has said that NFL scouts consider him one of the most inaccurate short/mid range projected in the first round they have even seen (yes worse than josh allen) yet with fantastic deep ball skills. I think his lack of intangibles has been overblown and he has shown competency with more advanced concepts but not the degree of young/levis. He displays a seriously concerning lack of feel in the mid / short range and will probably only start in year 1 and 2 because of his rushing upside. I personally do not think taking a guy at 1 is worth it when we won't see him reach competency until midway through year 2/3. Not to mention historically, guys who rely on legs to that degree usually don't ever fully develop as a passer. To summarize, I think Richardson is worth a first round selection but not at 1 because assuming he pans out we wont see returns till 2 years down the line and those returns are most likely going to be around where a guy like lamar is now vs mahomes who will be in deep playoff contention for over a decade.

Stroud:

I was super high on stroud going into this year and if you asked me before the season started I would have said we should take him at 1. His arm is probably most comparable to dak prescott with good size and athleticism. He shows fantastic ball placement and I like his mechanics. I think he is a far better prospect than fields and more comparable to haskins with mobility. My biggest problem with him and why I dont think we should take him at 1 is his regression this year at making quick, decisive throws and lack of elite upside. On his tape this year you see a lot of waiting for guys to get open rather than throwing them open, staring down wrs and a lack of rythem passes despite super clean pockets. I think he has the ability in him somewhere but the fact that he cant slice and dice a defense despite his great accuracy and lack of pressure at ohio state makes me wonder what is going to happen when he is about to get hit by jeffery simmons on sundays. As far as elite upside goes, once i really compared him to richardson/levis in terms of arm talent I got really disappointed due to how weak he looks by comparison. In general top 5 NFL qbs have top 5 arms in the NFL.

So after those guys I think the decision comes down to bryce young or will levis. With 85% certainty I think levis gets his name called first but I would not be seething if we picked young. Here is why:

Levis:

To me Levis alongside young are the only day 1 starters who will have a chance to be well rounded, good qbs in their rookie years. My comparison for levis is Matthew Stafford with plus size/rushing ability. He has the 2nd best physical tools to Richardson but has run an NFL offense for 2 years with NFL coordinators in his ear. He has a stafford arm and shows excellent anticipation compared to a lot of upside first round qbs. He needs work on his mechanics, footwork and decision making but much like watson his rookie year, I think if we let him loose, his upside will cancel out the 3-5 bad rookie throws per game. This past season at Kentucky we saw him in a situation most similar to what he will face in the NFL on our team. Meh wrs and constant pressure made his life hell in many games where he routinely made NFL window/timing throws with rushers in his face or when he was half a second from getting hit. That is a skill which is required in the NFL and that the other three have not proven they can accomplish. The other big thing for levis and one that a lot of armchair scouts ignore all together is work ethic/leadership/facing adversity. To me levis is the only guy of these four who has displayed elite ability for all of those traits. He impressed bob stoops and his cooridnators to the point where they looked like they were about to cry when asked about him at the end of the year, other people in the building have given unprompted praise, and he kept working through his senior year to finally reach the point where he could enter the draft. He played injured all of last year with a good attitude despite his offensive teammates taking a step back. You see a lot of NFL prospects at QB either be made or broken by their lack of work ethic or ability to handle adversity.

Young:

To me young is a really difficult evaluation due to a variety of factors. The first is that in the majority of passing attempts I watched he looks as if he is playing flag football and rarely gets serious pressure or a pocket collapse. His size is also extremely tough to project due to how few guys have been successful in the NFL at that weight/height and basically none with that combo. I also think he has the worst arm talent of the four options but with probably the most natural feel for the game. Everything he does is smooth and looks under control until a rusher gets close to him. I think he can start day 1 but will likely have a big adjustment period to a team like ours with a rebuilding roster. If he isn't seeing the field well early on, he doesn't have the luxury of zipping passes a bit late like levis/richardson nor can he use his legs and run through guys. To me he is akin to a more natural kyler with worse strength and speed. In terms of character he also seems very mature like levis and a leader. He hasn't really had to deal with a ton of adversity but everything he has done suggests he has the demeanor of an NFL QB. Youngs highlights have him looking like the next drew brees but for me the game cuts were far more disappointing. He pretty routinely misses passes, especially if he has even a bit of pressure. He doesn't display the same level of anticipation/intangibles as levis though he is close. I think he ends up around where tua/kyler are in the NFL landscape. Absolutly not busts and uniquely talented but not significantly above the kirk cousins tier of QB. For me young has the upside of the safe pick without the measurable threshold which scares me at 1.