Why Not Trading Hopkins Could Have Been A Mistake

I loved Hop as much as the next Texans fan but the more I have looked into it, the more it makes sense. As OB said on the call yesterday, Hop wanted a raise that they were not able to hand out. Rumors were it was in the $18-$20 million per year range. After all the hate, memes, etc I have seen since the trade was announced I decided to look a little more into it. Here is what I have found:]

Why trade him in the first place? How important is it to have a dominant receiver in order to win a Super Bowl? I went back and checked and the top 46 seasons ever for receptions in a single season. There has been ZERO receivers that won the Super Bowl that season out of those top 46 receivers.

(https://i.imgur.com/oU7i23E.png)

Then I thought…well maybe not from a receptions standpoint but overall talent. So I took the Top 25 highest paid receivers in the NFL and added up how many total Super Bowl wins there were between the Top 25. The answer? 2 total.

(https://i.imgur.com/z9L12fp.png)

So now I am thinking what I have seen most fans/haters writing since the trade which was, "Alright it wasn't so bad that we want to trade him but we have to at least get back a first round pick for him." So I went back for the last 20 seasons and added up all of the receivers that were traded for first round picks. In the last 20 years there have been 10. Out of those ten in which teams gave up a first rounder for, how many of those guys went on to win a Super Bowl with that team. The answer….ZERO.

(https://i.imgur.com/O9MyfJM.png)

So in my view, you cannot design an offense around a large target/reception volume of one receiver, pay a receiver $18-$20 per year or convince NFL teams that have dozens of people that probably understand that trading first round picks for these receivers on top of paying them a ridiculous contract will ever amount to Super Bowl titles.

I am not a guy that is going to defend all of O'Briens moves but to me getting a second round pick was decent compensation, even taking on DJ's contract which we can get out of after this season if it doesn't work out. He is an added bonus that could and I think will work out better than Hyde was as an overall 3 down back if (Yes a BIG IF) healthy.

Ok…I'm ready for the crucifying.