Where do we go from here?

Like all of you I was upset, confused, distraught, and a list of other words I can't even think of right now when we traded Nuk for a bag of chips. That said, it's done and in the books and dwelling on it isn't going to do anyone any good. No I'm not trying to be a BoB apologist or defend any of the moves we've made so far. What I am trying to do though, is take a look forward at how we can salvage the 2020 season based on what's happened and what we have now and how the team will shape up. This will be a rather lengthy post so bring your popcorn.

What we lost:

DeAndre Hopkins,DJ Reader, Carlos Hyde, Jonathan Joseph, Lamar Miller, Jahleel Addae

Obviously the first two names on the list are going to be the most easily noticed subtractions from this team. We all know how important Nuk was to this team, to this community and especially to DW4's growth. Reader would've been great to keep but with the deals we have looming, it was never really reasonable for him to stay without sacrificing a lot of money. We lost two running backs in Hyde and Lamar, both of which I think are more or less relatively expendable in this current RB market and I actually am happy we didn't overpay either of them to stay. As for JJO, he did more for this team than I think a lot of us realize and has been a rock on the outside when healthy. Addae was a decent emergency safety option but there was definitely something missing with him in our scheme.

*Where does this leave us? *

Need for: A WR1 for now and the future,a power/downhill RB, a veteran CB or just another solid CB in general, a 3-4 NT with pass rush capability, and another edge player as consequence for trading Clowney.

What we gained/retained in FA?

Obviously we traded for David Johnson, I don't mind the actual acquisition of DJ in a vacuum but his contract is massive (probably overpaid at this point) and the cost to acquire him(Nuk) sits heavy on our hearts. That said, if Hyde could have his first 1,000yd season with us and Duke can excel out of the backfield as a receiver with us, there's no telling what the ceiling for David Johnson is as a Texan with another year of continuity on the offensive line and what I anticipate will be a much more sideline to sideline offensive playbook in 2020.

We also acquired Randall Cobb. At this point in his career he's probably exclusively a slot option with the ability to play some outside sparingly or as a change of pace. Again, another pretty hefty deal for a player his age and considering his production over the last 3 years, this is probably an overpay when you look at some of the other available options in the market. That said, he's crafty and knows how to work zones from the slot and hopefully he can teach Coutee how to be a professional before his time as a Texan gets cut short.

We also signed Jaylen Watkins from the chargers. Probably an inconsequential signing and I doubt he makes the 53 when all is said and done, probably just a depth signing.

Eric Murray is a signing I'm still sort of scratching my head about. He played a wide range of positions in Cleveland so he brings some VeRsAtiLiTy. I suspect he'll be our third safety in the same vein that Addae was and also a viable slot corner option as Gipson/Lonnie will probably still be our TE handcuff(s). Where I'm confused about this signing is that there's players like Eric Reid and Vonn Bell out there who I think fit our style of play and scheme a lot better and I would rather have signed one of them to play safety exclusively and brought in Logan Ryan to compete at slot corner.

Re-Signings

Bradley Roby. Our clear-cut #1 corner who's actually on a pretty decent deal considering how the CB market could've played out this year. He was a stud for us when he was healthy and brought a level of stickiness I haven't seen a Texans DB have in a long while. Hopefully his injury woes are behind him and he can continue to be our guy and teach Lonnie how to maximize his skills.

Roderick Johnson. Actually a pretty damn good 6th OL especially as a swing tackle. If you know me, you know I hate PFF as a metric to measure performance, especially OL play, but he ranked just behind Tunsil in grade for our players having over 100 snaps.

Darren Fells. Our big body red zone cash register. Literally nobody can cover this guy. He's too big for DBs and too fast for LBs and knows how to use his size and strength properly. Good to see us re-sign him on a team friendly deal to continue being DW4's security blanket.

Vernon Hargreaves. Likely our #1 option at slot CB. Was decent in 2019 for us. Not good, not bad. Lot of missed opportunities for him as well as some good PBUs. Will benefit from experience and what is hopefully a more blitz-heavy defensive scheme under Weaver.

Brandon Dunn. Rotational DE, nothing really alarming about him either way. Strength is definitely his run defense and occasionally gets some pressure but it's definitely not enough for our needs as a defense.

What should we do with the remaining Free Agent period?

I think there's a couple of directions we could/should take.

I said earlier, I would like to see us bring in one of Vonn Bell/Eric Reid to play true safety for us on a rotational basis with Reid and Gipson and then couple that with Logan Ryan to compete for the slot spot. On the outside, I wouldn't mind looking at Ronald Darby or Jimmy Smith. Both have pretty good man skills, but have been derailed by injury in the same vein Robby was before coming here from Denver last season. We have a lot of DBs on our roster as it stands right now, but only one REAL stud in Roby after missing out on CHJ and others in the free agent market for whatever reason.

Up front, I NEED us to take a look at Suh. He's the quintessential 3-4 DT we could pair with JJ. He's incredibly strong, good enough against the run and probably the best pass rusher we've had on the line aside from JJ since Antonio Smith. He's not as large of a human as Reader but he's definitely more of a pass rush threat. To that end, Dontari Poe could fill that "DJ Reader" role pretty decently though he's not as strong. There's a lot of notable pass rushers on the market we could kick the tires on as well. Shelby Harris, Everson Griffen, Mike Daniels (my personal preference for our RDE spot opposite JJ) and Ziggy Ansah are the ones I'd be ok with bringing in. They're all obviously older but I think could help enough to make a positive impact.

What to do in the Draft?

As it stands today here are our 8 draft picks:

2-40 2-57 3-97 4-111 5-171 7-240 7-248 7-250

I think our immediate needs are WR, CB, EDGE/Pass Rusher in no particular order. That said, the top of this draft is LOADED with WR talent and I'd like to see us spend some capital here either with our first second round pick, or to trade up into the back end of the first.If we keep our second round picks or move up toward the top of the second I'd love to see us pick up Laviska Shenault or Denzel Mims. Mims I'm particularly interested in because I think he's in the same mold as Andre Johnson was when he came out. Big, strong and FAST for his size. Both these guys are rising up draft boards (especially Mims after that monstrous combine performance) and likely project to be second round picks if not late firsts. I'd say the odds of us trading up for Jeudy or Higgins are pretty slim and Ruggs is too small for my liking as an outside WR in a system like ours.

I think our second 2nd round pick is best used on an edge rusher since we have so many bodies in our defensive backfield rn. I doubt he would be there with either of our second rounders but I would love Yetur Gross-Matos with either pick. I think he's a slight downgrade from AJ Epenesa but both these guys are similar. Either way I don't see either being available without us trading up.To that end, Julian Okawara and Terrell Lewis are more reasonable options with where our picks lie. There's also an outside chance we could take Brad Anae with our second pick. His combine measurements weren't anything to write home about but he's probably a solid pass rush option for someone for the foreseeable future.

Elsewhere in the draft I think we take a long look at refilling our DL with talent (assuming we don't sign anyone in free agency) with at least two selections here, drafting a late round Reader replacement, another LB, an OG as a warm body to be a Fulton/Mancz replacement, and a RB to groom for the future (though I'd really like to see Higdon get a shot on the 53).

What we will look like in 2020:

This is something I really wanted to talk about since the Hopkins trade and Randall Cobb signing because I think I've figured out what the plan with all this might be. Assuming we don't sign/trade for/draft anyone else on the offensive side of the ball, I think we're looking to model our offense after the Chiefs with a mix of what the Steelers did with the Killer B's. What I mean by this is look at our personnel now. Big, big bodies at TE who also have speed to clog up the middle of the field, be go-to options in the RZ and be security blankets on 3rd down. LOTS of speed on the outside in Stills, Fuller and Cobb. I think this will let us run a lot more of the motion style offense we saw a decent bit last year, but this time it actually be effective. As amazing and valuable as DeAndre Hopkins was, nobody respected him as a speed threat.DeAndre's value on the field was not only catching everything in sight, but also drawing coverage toward him with either shifts or straight double teams/bracket coverage. Now defenses will have to account for everyone's speed and the coverage will be balanced on both sides. This allows for working the sidelines and deep balls a lot more effectively. So far we have tight ends working the middle, and WRs working the sidelines and deep balls. What's left? Johnson & Johnson, my friends. A big part of David Johnson's rise to fame was his ability as a pass catcher. Let's not forget he was nearly a 1,000/1,000 player in '16. Sure he may have lost a step but he's one of the best pass catching backs in the league. He's also a bigger body than Duke and he'll be our primary ball carrier. Why does this matter? Well last year with Hyde, nobody really considered Hyde a receiving threat. Now, everyone on the field will be a receiving threat. Johnson & Johnson will be the best receiving backfield in the league (on paper) and this will make pistol/two back sets SO filthy for defenses to try and defend. Both can run, both can catch with the best of them. I think we're going to see a lot more "gimmicks" and "window dressing" this year than even last year but I think we'll see a whole new style and level of offense with how diverse our players skillsets are. Let's also not forget the big guys up front. Tunsil is coming back to anchor what was an improved offensive line and should continue to be a top tier lineman and clean up his false starts with another training camp under his belt. Scharping was more than solid as a rookie guard and I expect more of the same from him. Martin once again was a solid center in 2019, hopefully he got a little stronger this offseason to help against the bull rushers we'll see this year. Fulton wasn't bad in 2019 but I think his time with us is nearing its end. He's not quite fast enough sometimes to make second level blocks or pull on runs. Tytus will be back from injury and hopefully picks up where he left off as a solid RT in this league which is almost just as important as LT. Another year together should lower the sack numbers even more and hopefully yield more dividend in the run game as well.

Yes, Nuk is a one of a kind, irreplaceable, HoF bound player and I'm not in any way defending trading him away, but if I'm trying to rationalize why or what we can do now that he's gone, I think we actually have more options than we think.

As far as the defense goes, I think we might be in for a rough one if we leave our personnel as it looks right now. We know what we're getting from Mercilus, Watt, Cunningham and McKinney in the front 7 and Reid, Roby Gipson on the backend. It's everyone else that leaves a lot to be desired and raises all the questions. Does Jacob Martin's body transformation make him our missing piece? What shape will Duke Ejiofor be in coming off injury? Will Brennan Scarlett finally become a consistent pass rusher? Can Dylan Cole stay healthy and be a consistent contributor to this team? Will Lonnie make the jump in year 2 and take advantage of his measurables? Is Hargreaves our answer at slot corner? Will Conley cement himself as our #2 CB on the outside? Do we have enough safety depth to survive Reid/Gipson injuries if they happen again? What will Weaver's scheme entail? Will we blitz more to generate pressure? There's just a LOT of questions surrounding our defense right now and I'm just not sure if we have enough as it stands right now to get where we want to go.

Special teams was without a doubt our unsung hero in 2019. We brought back a good chunk of our vital special teamers (I didn't include them above because why make an already long post even longer). Hopefully this unit continues to do what they did last year. Good kicking game, good coverage units and even a few blocks courtesy of Angelo Blackson. I would like our punting to be a little better directionally and for DeAndre Carter to use his brain more but overall I was pleased with this unit.

I know it's been doom and gloom around here this week and a lot of you are close to giving up fandom if you haven't already, and I don't blame you. But I think we can be better than what we're anticipating and should at least give our talented players some benefit of the doubt to overcome incompetent management/ownership. I can't say I'll be as devout a fan as I have been in the past but hopefully this team can surprise all of us in a good way. Our division is still very much winnable for us with our roster and some of the moves other teams have made and with the changing CBA we can still make playoffs (I know it goes into effect in 2021 but let me have this) where anything can happen.You don't have to agree with me but I'm just trying to find SOMETHING to explain everything that's been going on and hopefully find some shred of silver lining to cling to for this year.