Well, that escalated quickly: The worst of the storms is coming sooner than expected to Houston

In brief: Due to the unanticipated escalation in storm activity this morning, it now appears as though the city of Houston will see intense showers and thunderstorms during the next several hours, through Thursday afternoon. We are issuing a Stage 2 flood alert for the entire area due to the high rainfall rates and timing of street flooding.

We were wrong. Just hours ago, in this morning’s post, it looked as though a band of showers north of the region would slowly wane through the morning hours. However, as we’ve been monitoring radar trends, that clearly has not happened. Instead we’ve seen this band thicken and slowly progress southward toward central Houston. Already in locations such as Spring, Humble, and Atascocita have picked up in excess of 5 inches in just a couple of hours this morning. That is a lot of water in a little time.

Although there remains considerable uncertainty, it now appears as though this line of storms will continue to sag southward this morning before reaching the coast by late afternoon. It is likely to have significant impacts in the city of Houston and surrounding areas, including street flooding. Of particular immediate concern is the high rainfall rates associated with these storms, which will back roads up quickly. For this reason we are escalating to a Stage 2 flood alert for the entire region. Conditions should hopefully improve late this afternoon or evening.

All of this activity should have an impact on the atmosphere, and because of this it no longer appears as though the region will see a round of stronger storms overnight, into Friday morning. But given the unpredictability of this system so far, that is not an entirely confident prediction.

Please stay safe today and do not drive into high water.