Verlander may be washed

Before y'all start coming at me about how JV isn't washed and how hes coming back from injury, I want y'all to read what the metric say and also to remember that this isn't just out of his prime 34 year old JV anymore, this is a 41.5 year old. Maybe this is the production teams will get out of him now (if he plans to still pitch till he's 45).

JV 1 time through the order 2024
3.73 FIP, 8.89 K/9, 15.4 K-BB% .299 BABIP
JV 2-3 times through the order 2024
5.52 FIP, 7.51 K/9, 12.35 K-BB%, .283 BABIP

2023 JV (astros) vs 2024 JV
2023:3.92 FIP, 8.34 K/9, 17.3 K-BB%, .275 BABIP, 4.60 xFIP
2024: 4.73 FIP, 7.91 K/9, 13 K-BB%, .288 BABIP, 4.99 x FIP

Now his 2023 with the Astros was pretty solid all things considering, especially for a 40 yo, the measureables pointed to a decline especially since the xFIP just didn't go down as the season went on. Hell you could argue and find out that he wasn't missing bats nearly as much when he won the CY young in 2022 compared to 2019 (35.4 K% vs 27.8)

I do not like the look of his predictive measures and while BABIP takes 800 AB's to get itself right, K-BB% does not and JV's has not looked good this season at 13%. None of the predictive measures are pointing in the right direction and it could cost us games during the regular season. Verlander is projected to make 4 starts this month, our defict for 2nd in the AL is 4 games with JV making the last start in the Cleveland series.

Whilst JV is JV has had good stuff this season (he has had positive movement on his pitches all season according to V-movement and 118 stuff+ on fangraphs). That however has not correlated runs saved as his pitches have been middling all season and during these past 3 starts, the fastball has been going down in run value per 100 pitches (-.173 wFA/C average). I suspect that it's due to the fact that his fastball velo during this 3 start stretch has been on average 93.36, which is relatively human.

I worry that Espada will lean on Verlander for a start or two in the playoffs and we will be burned. IF and its a big IF, JV were to start in the playoffs it should be with Spencer coming in after he faces the 9th batter in the opposing teams lineup.