Thunderstorm chances for Monday afternoon and evening look a little bit higher

In brief: As a boundary pushes in from East Texas, the potential for storms is a little bit higher today than expected. However, while the line of storms currently on the radar is impressive, it’s not clear whether this system will hold together all the way into Houston.

In this morning’s post I mentioned there was “a bit of intrigue” regarding storm chances on Monday afternoon as a boundary pressed into the area from the east. As of 4 pm CT this boundary is clearly visible on radar, having moved from Louisiana into East Texas, and now slowly creeping toward the Houston metro area.

To be frank, our high-resolution modeling guidance has completely missed the boat on this storm development today, and I don’t have a great answer as to what happens later this afternoon and evening. My best guess is that this boundary will continue to slide west, but as the storms approach and move into the Houston area they will weaken. But given the ample daytime heating over the next couple of hours, it is also possible the storms hold together and some sort of line pushes through between now and 9 pm CT.

With this post I simply wanted to call attention to the possibility that showers and thunderstorms may be a little bit more widespread this evening than previously expected. (We have no flooding concerns, regardless). Or, maybe the storms will fizzle out as they move into a slightly less favorable environment. In any case, expect the unexpected this evening.