The 4 Most Likely Scenarios for how QB will play out.

All signs are pointing towards a new QB lining up for the Texans in 2023 and in my opinion here are the 4 most likely scenarios and the implications it has on the rest of the team:

Draft a QB at 2 and he is great:

This is the ideal scenario as franchise QBs rarely become available in the market. In a perfect world, whichever QB we draft at 2 is an immediate game changer and with his relatively low cap hit, allows the team to splurge on weapons elsewhere.

Draft a QB at 2 and he is bad:

We take a guy at 2, and within a few years the team realizes “hey this guy blows” and you pivot away. Were the last 2 years a wasted? Yeah. But with his relatively low cap hit, you are not tied down to their contract and allow you to be in the market for something else. See: Zack Wilson.

Bring in a veteran and he is good:

I use the term “good” and not “great” .. because there is a reason these guys are available. Whether it’s Jimmy G, Derek Carr or one of these other available veterans, if their teams felt like they could win with them on their current contract they would keep them. You know what you have with these guys, and while their floor is likely a bit higher, their ceilings are equally lower.

Bring in a veteran and he is bad:

The Texans roster is not at a point where they can compete with the good teams (much less the elite teams) as far as depth and high end talent. Something that is required to win based on what has been seen by these available veteran QBs (and even then is not a guaranteed). By signing whichever veteran to a ~$25 million dollar contract, you are locking yourself into a lower ceiling at QB, while also using valuable cap space limiting your options to upgrade elsewhere.

This is just my opinion, but I feel like the risk/reward case for drafting a QB just makes a lot more sense. I have no idea if these incoming rookie QBs will succeed, but from what I have seen they have a shot.

Always curious to see other folks opinions so if I missed something please let me know.

Obviously there are other scenarios in play like trading up to #1 or trading for a young QB like Lance or Love. But these scenarios seem much more likely.