It's crunch time y'all, and the stakes have been raised.

At about 3:30 in the afternoon this Sunday, the Texans could be completely eliminated from the playoff race. They could also be in sole control of the AFC South.

With two weeks to go in the regular season, there is meaningful football to be played. It's been a while since we've had this, so enjoy it!

Here’s Week 17’s edition of which games we want to go which way.

Game by Game

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• Texans vs Titans: Texans
• Priority: Very High
• Playoff Chances: +13% with a win, -22% with a loss

Reasoning: …

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• Jets @ Browns: Jets
• Priority: Medium

Reasoning: The Browns have all but locked up a playoff spot, and it is extremely unlikely that the Texans surpass them in seeding at this point. That said, it's not impossible currently, so we take any loss we can get for other AFC contenders. Plus, we want every chance possible to improve our 2024 Draft picks.

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• Lions @ Cowboys: Irrelevant
• Priority: N/A

Reasoning: Two NFC teams not on our schedule. Negligible impact on tiebreakers

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• Falcons @ Bears: Falcons
• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: A Falcons win boosts the Texans Strength of Victory rating for a potential tiebreaker

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• Dolphins @ Ravens: Ravens
• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: Texans cannot surpass either of these teams at this point, but a Ravens victory boosts the Texans strength of schedule rating for a potential tiebreaker.

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• Saints @ Buccaneers: Irrelevant
• Priority: N/A

Reasoning: Texans beat both teams, so their Strength of Victory will even out from this game no matter the result.

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• Patriots @ Bills: Patriots
• Priority: Very High
• Playoff Chances: +10% with Patriots win, -1% with Bills win

Reasoning: The Bills are a primary wildcard competitor. Them getting a loss would be huge for the Texans securing a path to the playoffs in the event of a loss in one of their remaining games.

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• Cardinals @ Eagles: Cardinals
• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: A Cardinals win boosts the Texans Strength of Victory rating for a potential tiebreaker

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• Panthers @ Jaguars: Panthers
• Priority: Very High
• Playoff Chances: +11% with a Panthers win, -4% with a Jaguars win

Reasoning: The Jaguars will win the division if they finish with the same or better record compared to the Texans/Colts. A loss makes the AFC South winnable for a home playoff game.

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• Raiders @ Colts: Raiders
• Priority: Very High
• Playoff Chances: +2% with Raiders win, -1% with Colts win, Down to 5% total chance with Colts win + Texans loss

Reasoning: Since the Texans play the Colts in Week 18 and currently have the same record as the Texans, most of the cards will fall on that game. However, if the Texans drop their game in Week 17, we would strongly benefit from the Colts dropping their game too. A Colts Win and a Texans loss this week would bring the Texans playoff chances down to a measly 5%.

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• Rams @ Giants: Irrelevant
• Priority: N/A

Reasoning: Two NFC teams not on our schedule. Negligible impact on tiebreakers

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• 49ers @ Commanders: Irrelevant
• Priority: N/A

Reasoning: 2 NFC Teams not on our schedule. Negligible impact for tiebreakers.

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• Steelers @ Seahawks: Seahawks
• Priority: High

Reasoning: Steelers are an AFC Wildcard contender. A loss to an NFC team is a perfect scenario for us.

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• Bengals @ Chiefs: Win/Win, Lean Chiefs
• Priority: Medium
• Playoff Chances: +1% with a Chiefs win, -3% with a Bengals win

Reasoning: The Texans can still end the season with a better record than the Chiefs, but this only matters if they win the AFC South. The flip side is that the Bengals are still another wildcard competitor, and another loss all but kicks them out of the playoff hunt.

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• Chargers @ Broncos: Chargers
• Priority: Medium

Reasoning: The Broncos remain in the Wildcard hunt, and a loss to any contending team to a team out of contention helps us out.

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• Packers @ Vikings: Irrelevant
• Priority: N/A

Reasoning: 2 NFC Teams not on our schedule. Negligible impact for tiebreakers.

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Playoff Seeding

The Texans still fully control their own destiny to get into the Playoffs, as winning out both games will lock them into a spot.

This week now unfortunately introduces scenarios in which the Texans are eliminated from the playoff race.

The Texans have been eliminated from contention for the 1 and 2 Seed, but can still end the season anywhere from 3rd Seed, to out of the playoffs.

For this week specifically, the Texans could end anywhere from in the 4th Seed in control of the AFC South, to kicked out of the playoff hunt.

Specific Scenarios:

Texans Are ELIMINATED from Playoff Contention With

• Texans Loss + Colts Win + Jags Win + Bills win

Texans are Eliminated from AFC South Contention With

• Texans Loss + Jags Win

Texans control the AFC South (4th Seed) With

• Texans Win + Colts Loss + Jags Loss

Texans Control a Wildcard Spot With

• Texans Win + Jags Win + Colts Loss OR
• Texans Win + Colts Win + Jags loss OR
• Texans Win + Colts Win + Jags Win + Bills Loss

Most Critical Games and Desired Outcomes

• Texans over Titans
• Patriots over Bills
• Panthers over Jags
• Raiders over Colts
• Seahawks over Steelers
• Chiefs over Bengals

Recommended Football Viewing Schedule

A lot of important games happening at Noon on Sunday. Recommend RedZone for anyone who has access to it.

• Thursday Evening: Jets @ Browns (Prime/Twitch)
• Sunday at Noon: Texans vs Titans (FOX)
• Sunday at Noon: Monitor Colts, Bills, and Jaguars games
• Sunday Afternoon: Bengals @ Chiefs (CBS) OR Steelers @ Seahawks (FOX)