After a phenomenal game against the Titans and the Jaguars dropping one to the Ravens, things remain extremely interesting in the AFC Playoff race.

Here’s Week 16’s edition of which games we want to go which way.

Game by Game

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• Texans vs Browns: Texans
• Priority: Very High
• Playoff Chances: +18% with a win, -24% with a loss

Reasoning: …

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• Saints @ Rams: Saints

• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: Very unimportant but a Saints win gives us a better Strength of Victory rating for a tiebreaker.

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• Bengals @ Steelers: Steelers
• Priority: High
• Playoff Chances: +4% with Steelers win, -1% with Bengals win

Reasoning: While the Steelers are still technically in contention for the Wildcard, the Bengals have an identical record while the Steelers are one back. Texans benefit greatly from the Bengals losing an edge in the Wildcard race. That being said, a Steelers loss would essentially all but eliminate them from the AFC Wildcard race, making the competition a little less crowded.

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• Bills @ Chargers: Chargers
• Priority: High
• Playoff Chances: +5% with Chargers win, -2% with Bills win

Reasoning: The Bills are a primary wildcard contender with the same record as the Texans. Getting them knocked back a game is significant. The sole benefit to a Bills win would be that if in addition to it the Texans win AND the Ravens lose, the possibility of being the top seed in the AFC would remain on the table.

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• Commanders @ Jets: Jets
• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: Very unimportant but a Jets win gives us a better Strength of Schedule rating for a tiebreaker.

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• Seahawks @ Titans: Titans
• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: Very unimportant but a Titans win gives us a better Strength of Victory rating for a tiebreaker.

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• Colts @ Falcons: Falcons
• Priority: Very High
• Playoff Chances: +2% with Falcons win, -3% with Colts win

Reasoning: The Colts and Jaguars are primary competition for both the division playoff spot and the Wildcard. Any losses for either team are substantially significant for the Texans with the Division race as tight as it can possibly be between the three teams.

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• Packers @ Panthers: Panthers
• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: Very unimportant but a Panthers win gives us a better Strength of Schedule rating for a tiebreaker

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• Lions @ Vikings: Irrelevant
• Priority: N/A

Reasoning: 2 NFC Teams not on our schedule. Negligible impact for tiebreakers.

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• Jaguars @ Bucs: Bucs
• Priority: Very High
• Playoff Chances: +2% with Bucs win, -2% with Jags win

Reasoning: The Colts and Jaguars are primary competition for both the division playoff spot and the Wildcard. Any losses for either team are substantially significant for the Texans with the Division race as tight as it can possibly be between the three teams.

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• Cardinals @ Bears: Cardinals
• Priority: Very Low

Reasoning: Very unimportant but a Cardinals win gives us a better Strength of Victory rating for a tiebreaker

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• Cowboys @ Dolphins: Cowboys
• Priority: Medium

Reasoning: If the Texans secure the AFC South playoff spot, then they improve their seeding with a top AFC team dropping some games.

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• Patriots @ Broncos: Patriots
• Priority: Medium
• Playoff Chances: +1% with a Patriots win

Reasoning: The Broncos are in contention for a wildcard spot and are all but eliminated from the race with a loss.

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• Raiders @ Chiefs: Raiders
• Priority: Medium

Reasoning: If the Texans secure the AFC South playoff spot, then they improve their seeding with a top AFC team dropping some games.

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• Giants @ Eagles: Irrelevant
• Priority: N/A

Reasoning: 2 NFC Teams not on our schedule. Negligible impact for tiebreakers.

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• Ravens @ 49ers: 49ers
• Priority: Low

Reasoning: The Ravens are locked into a playoff spot, and are a top contender for the 1 Seed and a Playoff Bye. The only way this game impacts the Texans seeding is if the Ravens lose ALL their remaining games, the Texans and Bills win ALL of theirs, and the Jags, Dolphins, and Chiefs each drop some games. In that case, the Texans would secure the 1 seed.

Playoff Seeding

The Texans control their own destiny to get into the Playoffs, and a win against the Browns substantially increases their chances. They cannot clinch a playoff spot this week.

This week could now see the Texans with the lead in the AFC South, still outside looking in on the playoffs, or in the 5th or 7th seed wildcard spots.

Specific Scenarios:

8th Seed (Outside looking in for Playoffs)

• Texans Win + Colts Win + Jags Win + Bengals Win OR
• Texans Loss

7th Seed (Lowest Wildcard Seed)

• Texans Win + Colts Win + Jags Win + Bengals Loss

5th Seed (Highest Wildcard Seed)

• Texans Win + Jags Win + Colts Loss
• Texans Win + Colts Win + Jags loss

4th Seed (Highest current possible seed)

• Texans Win + Colts Loss + Jags Loss

Texans are Eliminated from 1st Seed Contention with:

• Texans loss OR
• Bills loss OR
• Ravens win

Most Critical Games and Desired Outcomes

• Texans over Browns
• Steelers over Bengals
• Bucs over Jags
• Chargers over Bills
• Falcons over Colts

Recommended Football Viewing Schedule

• Saturday Afternoon: Bengals @ Steelers (NBC)
• Saturday Evening: Bills @ Chargers (Peacock/NBC)
• Sunday at Noon: Texans vs Browns (CBS)
• Sunday Afternoon: Jags @ Bucs (CBS)
• Sunday Evening: Patriots @ Broncos (NFLN)
• Monday at Noon: Raiders @ Chiefs (CBS)
• Monday Evening: Ravens @ 49ers (ABC)