Current AFC Playoff Picture

Division Leaders

1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-3)

Wildcards

• 1. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
• 1. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
• 1. Denver Broncos (5-4)

Best possible position by end of week:

2nd Seed

Worst possible position by end of week:

4th Seed

According to the NYT Playoff Calculator, if everything goes the Texans way this week, they would end the week with a 98-99% chance to make playoffs.

If everything goes against the Texans this week, they would end the week with a 90% chance to make playoffs.

Key Games

• Texans vs Lions

Desired Winner: Texans

This will be one of the toughest matchups the 2024 Texans have faced. Luckily, there should be a few major pieces returning to the lineup this week, including our star WR Nico Collins, but the team will need to fire on all cylinders to keep up with a truly explosive Lions team. How the team deals with the left guard position with Kenyon Green officially out with injury will likely be the most critical thing to watch.

Going against such a powerhouse after a truly deflating loss to the Jets in Week 9, there’s certainly going to be some pessimism with this game. Even so, I personally expect some major fireworks with this one for Sunday Night Football. Texans are hungry for a win, playing prime time at home, and will be feeding off the energy of multiple high level players returning to action.

• Bills @ Colts

Desired Winner: Bills

The good news with this game is that it’s a win/win in terms of potential playoff seeding help. If the Colts best the Bills, the Texans have the ability to get back to the 2nd or 3rd Seed position. However, in terms of making the playoffs all together, a Colts loss would be significant for the Texans lead in the AFC South, bringing Indy to 4-6, with the Texans then having a 4-5 game lead on the Colts (having secured the tiebreaker with their sweep of the Colts).

• Vikings @ Jaguars

Desired Winner: Vikings

There is no downside to getting the Jags further out of the playoff picture. A loss would put them at 2-8 on the season, making a run at the AFC South even more improbable. A Vikings win also increases the Texans strength of schedule, a potential downstream seeding tiebreaker.

• Titans @ Chargers

Desired Winner: Chargers

Another game that is a bit of a win/win. Pushing the Titans further away from the AFC South race would be a clear win, but the Chargers remain in the AFC playoff picture for now as well, and any losses there can become significant later on for seedling.

• Steelers @ Commanders

Desired Winner: Commanders

We’ve got a clear desired outcome on this one. The Steelers are currently ahead in playoff seeding and a loss to an NFC team would only benefit the Texans.

• Broncos @ Chiefs

Desired Winner: Either

Yet another win/win scenario. A Broncos win would make the playoff bye more attainable, but a Chiefs win would knock down another AFC playoff candidate.

Other Relevant Games

• Bengals @ Ravens

Desired Winner: Bengals

Ravens are right alongside the Texans for playoff seeding, while the Bengals are multiple games out. Prioritize getting the higher level competition moved down in seeding.

• Jets @ Cardinals

Desired winner: Cardinals

Jets are AFC competition. Root to get another game ahead of them in the overall standings.

• Patriots @ Bears

Desired Winner: Bears

A Bears win improves Strength of Victory for a potential downstream tiebreaker, and pushes another AFC team further down.