Storms possible Tuesday night, otherwise a mostly sunny week

Good morning. If you were surprised by the widespread nature of showers and storms on Saturday and Saturday evening, you’re not alone. The forecast for Saturday—we expected sunshine and dry air to prevail—was a total bust. Matt did an analysis of the event on Twitter, and summarized the situation as follows, “Yesterday in Houston was one of the most impressive forecasting busts I’ve witnessed & been part of in a long while.” Needless to say, we’ll learn from this.

Monday

Houston is enjoying a pleasant morning, with lows down near 60 degrees in the city. Today should be another sunny affair, with highs pushing into the mid-80s. Humidity will be much more noticeable, as winds really pick up from the south, possibly gusting to 20mph. As a result of this more southerly flow, clouds should build tonight, and this should help prevent low temperatures from falling much below 70 for the area.

Tuesday

Clouds will remain on Tuesday, but highs will still get into the mid- to upper-80s as a warmer pattern prevails. Winds will still be active, blowing out of the south at about 15mph. A few scattered showers are possible Tuesday, but the better rain chances will probably hold off until the overnight hours.

Tuesday night and Wednesday

On Tuesday night, likely some time after midnight, a strong system will approach and move through the region. Right now, it appears as though this system will take the form of a fairly strong squall line, advancing through Houston from north to south after midnight and before sunrise on Wednesday. The main threats are damaging winds, and briefly intense thunderstorms. After these storms, we anticipate clearing skies as drier air moves into the region. Wednesday should end up being a nice day, with highs in the mid-80s. Wednesday night will be quite cool in the wake of this system, with drier air allowing temperatures to possibly drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of sunny, pleasant, warm days with highs in the mid-80s. The drier air will begin to wash out by Friday as the southerly flow returns.

Saturday and Sunday

Do you like summer? Because the first weekend of May, 2020, may have the feel of almost summer-like weather. Both days should see highs of around 90 degrees, with partly sunny skies, and plenty of humidity. More details as we get closer.