Storms possible later today, but the bigger threat lies north of Houston

Houston will see the threat of severe weather this afternoon and early evening as a storm system moves through the region, ahead of a cool front. After this we expect several days of dry, sunny weather to dominate the region. It will be warm, but not too warm for late spring, with some reasonably cool nights this weekend.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are in the mid-70s, with cloudy skies. Unlike Monday and Tuesday, however, we won’t experience much if any clearing skies later today. Instead, the region will see an increasing chance of storms. The bigger threat lies north of the metro area, over areas such as Lufkin and Waco, but almost the entire Houston region faces a “slight” chance of hail and damaging winds. The rain chances with this storm system are pretty meager for Houston, especially areas south of Interstate 10, as the capping inversion may prove unbreakable. That’s unfortunate, because there are a lot of dry areas such as Brazoria County that could use some precipitation and probably won’t get much, if any with this system.

Thursday

A secondary, thin and broken line of showers may pass through the area early Thursday before sunrise along with the cool front itself. In its wake, we should see clearing skies and highs in the mid-80s on Thursday. Lows will drop into the mid-60s.

Friday

As southerly winds return on Friday (some gusts above 20 mph will be possible), the Houston region will see a warmer day with rising humidity. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s, and some areas may briefly hit 90 degrees. Sunshine will predominate, with clear skies over night.

Saturday and Sunday

We would be in for a real cooker of a weekend if not for a second front pushing into the region on Friday night or early Saturday morning. Without much moisture to work with, we don’t expect much in the way of rainfall, but it should bring a pair of drier, sunny days for the weekend. Look for highs in the low 80s, and overnight temperatures in the low 60s for most of the metro area—warmer along the coast, and cooler inland.

Next week

After the weekend, we anticipate a warming trend for next week. The most likely outcome is hot and mostly sunny weather, with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. The models are mixed as to whether an atmospheric disturbance will bring another shot of rain into the weekend around the middle of next week, so we’ll set aside those tea leaves to be read for another day.