Severe thunderstorms incoming to the Houston area on Tuesday afternoon

In brief: A line of severe storms is likely to affect much of the greater Houston area this afternoon. Please be weather aware as you venture out between now and about 5 pm CT.

As of noon, a strong line of thunderstorms has developed near College Station and Huntsville, and it should move steadily southward this afternoon. The time of most concern for the Houston metro area will be from 1 pm to 5 pm, as the system pushes into central parts of the city and down to the coast. Not all of Houston will see severe weather, but a good portion of the metro area is likely to be affected.

Please note that, as of this time, we are not expecting the derecho-like weather that Houston experienced about 10 days ago. However, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms, and that includes the usual threats.

In terms of rainfall, I expect that much of the area will receive 1 to 3 inches, but as these storms move into Houston they could slow somewhat due to interaction with the Gulf of Mexico seabreeze. In this case we could see some higher isolated totals of 4 or more inches of rainfall. As for hail, I think a high-end size would be ping pong ball-sized hail. Straight-line winds could reach up to 60 mph. It is also possible that we see some isolated tornadoes.

The worst of this mess should push through by the late afternoon or early evening hours. As a result of this storm system, my expectation is for quieter weather tonight.

Matt and I will be tracking these storms closely, and if there are changes in the forecast we will update the site.