Rule 5 Write Up for tomorrow:

The Astros financial situation has been well covered, but as the winter meetings come up so do one of the most uniquely baseball things. The rule 5 draft was created in order to prevent teams from hoarding major league ready prospects, not on the 40 man roster. The most notable success story was Roberto Clemente and closer to home Johan Santana, but Ryan Pressly himself is a success story from the rule 5 draft. While sometimes you see bad teams trying to steal talent from other orgs (noda with the A’s) other orgs use it to fill out the peripherals of their roster (Sabol with the giants). Houston very well could look to do the later since Dana has made it clear that we are not likely to spend a lot of money and that the third outfield spot does not seem to be a priority. Thus seeing us pick up a low leverage reliever, or a flier on an outfielder could be a good way to keep the budget down. For starters the Astros are at 38/40 men on the 40 man meaning we would have the ability to add two players in the draft but that doesn’t include the possibility of adding Free agents as well. If we were to select a player they would have to stick on the Major league roster (or at least 90 days if they are injured after that). Otherwise if a player is out all of 2024 (I’m looking at you Coleman crow) they will be required to be on the major league roster for 90 days in 2025. The cost of a rule 5 draft pick is 100,000 dollars. If the player gets outright then the player is offered back to his original club in exchange for 50,000 making the cost of a failed rule 5 pick 50,000. This could be a great way for the Astros to grab one more player who would ultimately be on a rookie deal. Onto the players:

Deyvison De Los Santos (3B) – DBacks (20YO)

De los Santos is a truly interesting player. He was a below average player for the first half of the season before Arizona pulled him from competition in order to completely rehaul his swing. He slashed .206/.269/.308 in 63 games until July 1st. After he came back things changed for him slashing .313/.333/.573 in 51 games good for a 131 ops+ in AA. A .373 BABIP suggests a bit of luck was involved in this turn around or his fixed swing became too good for the AA level. Part of the problem De Los Santos is that while most people agree he has plus-plus power, he drives the ball into the ground much too often. This year got much better as he hit the ball in the air much more often. The season as a whole showed improvement in this category. Especially after he reworked his swing. If you believe in how he reworked his swing, he could be a player we use as off the bench power, though his positional versatility is light. At only 20 years old there is still a lot of time left for De Los Santos to become a great major league player but that might require him to find that in the minors and not with us.

Kristian Robinson (OF) -DBacks (22YO)

Robinson is a similar player to De Los Santos. He is an aggressive high k, great raw power player. That said Robinson had visa issues and some legal issues (due to a mental issues in 2020) that lead to him getting a late start to the season. He only ended up getting 5 games in AA this season which makes him super unproven at the upper levels of the minors. He could be an interesting player to take a chance on but again he seems even more unlikely given the major question over his hit tool.

Hudson Haskin (OF) – Orioles (24YO) – whoever wrote Haskin profile on mlb pipeline is clearing tugging on my Houston heartstrings –

Coming out of high school and then the 2020 Draft, Haskin was compared to All-Star outfielder George Springer, another toolsy right-handed center fielder who starred at Avon (Conn.) Old Farms School. Unlike Springer, though, Haskin was drafted twice — first by the A’s in the 39th round in 2018 and then by the Orioles with the 39th pick in the 2020 Draft. The O’s signed Haskin for full pick value ($1,906,800) after he shot up draft boards as a draft-eligible sophomore at Tulane. Haskin then displayed both power (five homers) and speed (22 steals) during a solid debut season in 2021, despite being limited to 83 games by a thumb fracture. He built on those results in 2022 at Double-A Bowie, where, propelled by a three-homer game in April, Haskin socked 15 homers with a .821 OPS in 109 games. The uptick in power didn’t come at the expense of plate discipline (.367 OBP), but Haskin did run much less (five steals in eight attempts) at Bowie than he did at lower levels. While Haskin did reach Triple-A in 2023, he missed time early with a hamstring injury, then was shut down again in late June and ended up requiring surgery to repair a left hip impingement.

Haskin excelled in college with an unorthodox swing, utilizing a dynamic, divey load and sometimes awkward finish that drew comparisons to Hunter Pence. He’s quieted it up significantly since college, ditching the leg kick he used at Tulane and starting from a taller, less crouched position that allows him to leverage his contact against better pitching. Haskin has always managed the strike zone well and barreled balls consistently; with that better leverage, the power he used to flash showed up more regularly in 2022.

That said Haskin has had plenty of injury problems and struck out at a career high rate in AAA. At worst he could probably fill the Jake Meyers roll pretty well, getting good marks on his defense with Dubon also there to alleviate the pressure if it is needed, but the injury history is concerning. His .936 OPS vs RHP could make him a possible platoon option with Yordan in field (Haskin plays in the field vs rhp and yordan dhs, yordan plays in the field vs lhp and someone else DHs).

Johnathan Rodriguez (OF) – Guardians (24YO)

Rodriguez went into 2023 with questions about his hit tool and while he finally maintained a good average throughout the year the over 30% k rate is certainly concerning. Rodriguez has plenty of power highlighted by his .580 slugging and could profile as a player we give a shot to steal our LF spot when yordan isn’t in the lineup. He isn’t the greatest defender but has a good arm. It’s his speed that holds him back only allowing him to cover below average amounts of ground. His 131 wRC+ in 47 AAA certainly doesn’t hurt. He was a right handed bat but he absolutely killed LHP to the tune of a 1.022 OPS

Troy Johnston (1B/LF) – Marlins (26YO)

A lefty bat Johnston is possibly the most proven bat in this draft. His arm strength is well below average and his speed while stealing 24 bases is not the greatest making “LF” a bit of a stretch. That said Johnston improved his game in a big way in 2023. He squashed questions about his power and speed posting a 20/20 season between AA/AAA. He does a good job to hit the ball in the air sporting only a 32.2% GB% in AAA. He posted above a .900 OPS in both stops with above a 130 wRC+ in both AA/AAA. He makes lots of contact in the zone and looks to be a solid option if we were to pick him up.

Matt Sauer (P) – Yankees (24YO)

Sauer sat at around 97 in high school before having TJ with the yankees. Since he has sat in the low to mid 90s. In 68 innings in AA he recorded 83 Ks and held batters to a .196 BAA. He could maybe stick in the rotation but I would suggest putting him back into the bullpen to see if his Velocity could reach 97 again. This would also really help with another major problem which is the lack of speed difference between his changeup and his fastball.

Carlos De La Cruz (OF) – Phillies(24YO)

Carlos is 6’8 and has the ability to play a competent center field at the major league level. That alone makes him a fun player. As for his hitting it is a mixed bag. He has slowly cut his K% each time he has been promoted through the Phillies system showing that he may slowly be turning into the next baseball freak. He posted a 118 wRC+. More problematic is his swing. Fangraphs has him as a potential 80 grade raw power player. That said his lanky frame creates a swing that is currently chopping down on the ball and results in his 46.1% GB%. Certainly an intriguing player to say the least though. His .874 OPS against RHP in AA provides reason for optimism.

Kameron Misner (OF) – Rays (25YO)

A Left handed bat who can a good CF. Misner went unprotected last year and wasn’t picked. He has plus power highlighted by his .453 SLG in AAA. He is a “patient” hitter which has been criticized by the rays as while be draws plenty of walks he often finds himself behind in the count which also attributes to his high strike out rates. It’s tough to be often behind in the count when Misner already has a questionable hit tool. Misner had a .907 OPS against RHP which could make him a valuable platoon player but his 35.8K% (“only” 32.8% against RHP) is killer. Misner posted 21 Stolen bases in AAA.

DaShawn Keirsey (OF) – Twins (26YO)

A left handed batter. He swiped 42 bases in 2023 and he doubled his single season home run output. His promotion to AAA while going well wasnt quite as eye-popping as his time in AA. He immediately fits on a team as a defensive CF whose .860 OPS against Rhp in 2023 provides hope for a developing bat.

Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (P) – Rangers (23YO)

He dominated in the Arizona fall league this offseason but it would be an incredibly aggressive pick. He has dealt with shoulder issues which have limited the amount of time he has played but in 24 innings (small and not above A+) he had an opponent BA of .204 and got 25Ks in 24 innings. If the Astros believe in the stuff they could be aggressive in the rule 5 draft and let him dominate in the pen. Of note Bryan abreu jumped from A+ ball to the majors. So it isn’t insane if they believe the stuff plays.

Coleman Crow (P) – Mets (22YO)

Crow is out for all of the 2023 season meaning 2 things. 1 – if we were to select him he would only have to be on the roster for 90 days in 2025 to stick with the Astros. 2- as soon as he were to be selected he would go on the 60 day IL keeping his spot open to add another reliever. Crow is a fascinating player. He is a high K(about 9 per nine) while also being a low walk (about 2 per nine). It’s hard to know what he would be like when he comes back but we could take a chance on a high strike out guy (something the Astros love).

Yonathan Perlaza(LF) – Chicago Cubs (25YO)

Perlaza is a switch hitting LF for the cubs. His speed and his arm are about average meaning he will never be an outstanding defender there which is part of why he is an awkward fit in LF. Perlaza hit .284/.389/.534 in AAA for the cubs to the tune of a 130 wRC+. That said it was Perlaza’s eye popping 27.6% Line Drive percentage that draws you in. His 40 doubles and 23 Home runs stand out showing off his power. His 13 stolen bases show a player that has some speed. He walks at a good clip (14%) but strikes out a little too much (21%) something you likely can stomach if he puts up numbers like that.

Cole Wilcox (P) – Rays (24YO)

Wilcox gets an elite GB%. He gets good K/9 and limits his BB/9. Before his injury it was thought he could have top of the rotation type stuff. Now after his injury this could be our chance to steal a great player. Wilcox pitched more innings than he ever had in his career in 2023 with 106.2 IP. He could be someone we let start in our rotation until we get Garcia and McCullers back and sit in the back of the bullpen.

Anthony Prato (OF) – Twins(25)

What do you say about Prato. Prato seemed like he couldn’t touch a baseball in AA. Got promoted to AAA and then went off. .302/.452/.539 Slash line in AAA led to a 153 wRC+. His 19.7% BB is great but a bit of an outlier. His 23.1 K% is a bit of a concern. His 30.2 LD% is another eye popping number that might be worth biting on if you’re the astros. His 1.107 OPS against LHP caps it all off.

Unlikely:

Rafael Lantigua (LF/2B) – Blue Jays (25YO)

Lantigua hit .305/.425/.469 with a very balanced BB/K ratio in AAA for the blue jays and then elected free agency after the season. After that he resigned with the Jays making him an unlikely but possible rule 5 pick. The 5’7 contact hitting 2B mold has worked for the Astros before though (Tony kemp (: ).

Andrew Mango (P) – Tigers (25)

Mango is a high strike out (11.25k/9) but also a bit of a high walk guy. Could be someone we take a shot on in the bullpen as hitters in AA hit .184 against him and .213 against him in AAA. He induces a good Ground ball rate as well.

Tyler McKay (P) – Phillies (26)

McKay gets great a great ground ball rate at over 60% which could be worth a look in the pen.

Luis De Avila, Tristin English, Allan Castro, Devin Mann, Ricardo Olivar, Max Schuemann, Shane Drohan, Stephen Jones, Nelson L. Alvarez, Steward Berroa, Jake Holton, Alex Isola, Edgar Barclay, Isiah Gilliam, Tirso Ornelas, Freddy Zamora, R.J. Dabovich, CJ Van Eyk, Aaron Schunk, Wilfred Veras, Isaac Collins, Chandler Redmond, Justin Slaten, Ryan Anderson, Jose Ramos (good showing in the WBC), Steven Jennings, Nick Dunn

I’d take Wilcox for sure. Certainly would consider Coleman crow to stash on the IL for a year. As for position players I would take 1.Johnston (if he is still there), 2. Misner/Haskin (if the medical team thinks he can stay healthy) 3.Carlos De La Cruz (if we believe in the hype) 4.Prato/perlaza