Recapping a very wet week, and looking ahead to eventual sunshine

Good morning. The two major talking points heading into a new week are recapping the wet week that was, and looking ahead to when these rains will end. (They will end, I promise, despite our repeatedly wrong forecasts about the timing of all this). First of all, let’s look at the region’s rainfall from Sunday morning, May 16, through Sunday, May 23. Anywhere in red on the map below received 5 inches during the last week, and the areas in Barney purple got 10 inches or more. Those few pixels in white received 20 inches.

Some areas near Matagorda Bay and the general region of Beaumont and Lake Charles flooded significantly during this event. However, the Houston region—which we define as Harris County and immediately adjacent counties—largely fared OK. In fact, these rains obliterated an emerging drought. Last week’s drought report showed only a few pockets of “abnormally dry” soils near Houston, and those will be gone when the new report comes out this Thursday. The upper Texas coast in an excellent posture, rainfall wise, as we approach summer.

Of course the rains didn’t end on Sunday. Some parts of our region picked up another 1 to 2 inches on Sunday, as deep tropical moisture continued to funnel into the Texas coast. If you remember, over the course of the last week, this humble website initially predicted the widespread rains would end on Friday, and then on Saturday, and then on Sunday. And well, he were are on Monday morning, and showers are still streaming into Matagorda.

So when is it really going to end, Eric, you may ask? My answer is probably Wednesday, and for sure on Thursday. More in the daily forecast below.

Monday

The overall setup remains the same, with moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico today. However, areas east of Interstate 45 are increasingly unlikely to see more than light rain today and for the rest of the week.

However, areas along and west of Interstate 45—including the hard hit Matagorda Bay region—may continue to see at least moderate showers today. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible in these regions. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with high temperatures getting up to around 80 degrees. Rain chances should slacken considerably this evening.

Tuesday

Rain chances will return on Tuesday, although we expect less coverage as the potential for moderate to heavy rain continues to slide further west of Houston. Highs will again reach around 80 degrees, or perhaps a degree or two warmer. The sunshine may peek out through the clouds for a little bit, but no promises.

Wednesday

The reason we’re confident that the rains will end this week is that high pressure will build into Houston from the east and limit the ability of moisture at the surface to rise. We expect Wednesday to be somewhat of a transition day, with partly sunny skies but still a lingering chance—maybe 30 percent?—of light showers. Highs will reach the mid-80s.

Thursday and Friday

We’re pretty confident that high pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies for the second half of the week. This will drive temperatures into the mid-80s to about 90 degrees, with warm nights in the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Right now the weekend looks to remain mostly sunny, with continued warm temperatures in the upper 80s. There is a slight chance of showers on Saturday, but for now I’m thinking we’re going to enter a mostly dry pattern that will become difficult to break.