RE: Tuck, Pena, and Bregman

On Tuck:

1. He still put up a much better offensive year with the shift ban with a 142 OPS+.
2. He put several years of defensive excellence so i would right off his struggles this year to the WBC similar to how lidge had a bad year in 06.
3. It all depends on his contract negotiations. If he can come back we should absolutely re-sign him. If not we should certainly be exploring the trade market considering the weak free agent class

the alternative to tuck:

1. Trading tuck immediately opens a gaping in RF but gives us plenty of money to pay for replacements elsewhere while taking a chance on magic beans.
2. magic beans might fail.

My Opinion: Tuck is way younger than bregs so it makes much more sense if we gave him a long term deal to play in houston. An extension should be priority.

On Bregs:

1. Probably the least likely of the group to move but if contract talks fall through should we attempt to be proactive and sign chapman now since the next three years of 3B free agents is fairly weak

the Alternative to bregs

1. Chapman is a free agent, arenado or donovan figures to be in trade talks again. If Bregs isn't back this would probably be the best time to get one of the two before our class of SS from this draft can make it to the majors.

My opinion: If bregs isn't coming back we should get his replacement now and either trade him or play him at SS for a season because of how weak the next few years will be at 3B. An extension for Bregs should be priority. Just hopefully not for too long.

On Pena:

I know this take will get me crucified on this sub by some of y'all but I ask that you at least consider what I am putting forward here.

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1. Pena put up 3.8 WAR in 2023. With a 95 OPS+. This is the player he is proving to be. He is 26 years old and he plays great to elite defense. His offense oscillates between slightly above league average and slightly below league average as his offense seems to be streaky as hell.
2. Pena's love for sliders is an enviable love story for all of us.
3. It is a week free agency year for hitters especially if a team needed a SS
4. Pena has oodles of team control left. This means that either we believe he is who he is and he is replaceable or he is nearing a break out in which case we should lock him up while he's cheap. I'm inclined to believe it is the former.
5. Pena couldn't hit at MMP compared to his stats on the road.
6. Dubon plays similar (if slightly worse) defense with similar (if slightly better) offense
7. Bregman plays a worse SS (-1/-2 OAA when he got consistent time there due to a correa injury) defensively but his bat is much better
8. Kess plays good defense (+2 OAA) and potential for a better bat with more consistent ABs
9. Leon has almost the exact same profile as pena and has the capability of playing SS.

So is Pena better than 6-9 when you consider

1. Pena could be used as the headliner in a deal for burnes (especially if adames is traded), or a deal for Cease, just to name a few.
2. Pena could be used to attach montero (or but more unlikely, abreu, because i believe the club still sees value in him) and get out from the rest of his high end reliever money to truly open up the books to spend 30m this summer if go up to the tax instead of about 15m.
3. The freed up spot/money could be used on a third baseman like chapman who offers elite defense at a premium position with a better bat or HSK who offers elite defense at a premium position with better offense (wearily he way over shot his projections)
4. Pena could be used to land a left fielder with Soto notably being on the market (even if his arb is likely to expensive). Or the Freed up money could be used to land jung hoo lee and move chas to LF.
5. Pena could be used to help rebuild the farm.

My Opinion: Pena should be traded because we can moneyball his replacement and use him to get us an Ace for our staff or to get out of either montero or abreu's contract.