Our weather: Mostly dry and plenty hot, with a wary eye on the tropics

Good morning. A front is having subtle effects on Houston’s weather, but we’re still going to be plenty hot in the coming days. High temperatures should moderate slightly by the weekend, but we’re still looking at mostly sunny weather for several days. Next week our weather will be guided, to some extent at least, by any tropical systems that move into the Gulf of Mexico. We’re not seeing any direct threats, at least not yet, and Matt will have a full rundown later today on the tropical state of play.

Tuesday

Expect hot and sunny conditions to prevail, with highs pushing into the upper 90s to 100 degrees this afternoon as drier air helps with warming. Despite the drier air, models are picking up a slug of moisture in the lower atmosphere that may help to generate some scattered showers primarily on the western half of the metro area later today. This should be pushed away by this evening as additional dry air continues to move in, both at the surface and above. This should set the stage for a slightly cooler night, with lows dropping into the mid-70s across much of the city. The coast, alas, is still going to see pretty normal humidity for this time of year.

Wednesday

This will be a hot and sunny day, with drier air in evidence. Expect highs in the upper 90s, with sunny skies and light winds out of the north. Temperatures should again moderate reasonably quickly as the sun sets, and drier help helps.

Thursday and Friday

By late Wednesday or Thursday morning we expect to see winds to shift to the east, which is a precursor for a returning onshore flow. The drier air mass will linger for a bit, but will eventually be washed away with atmospheric moisture. Both days will likely see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as a series of weak disturbances pass the area. Frankly, these will feel like typical August days.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern should continue through the weekend—which is to say we can expect mostly hot and sunny weather with highs in the mid-90s and nights in the upper 70s except for the coast. Rain chances won’t be non-zero, but for most of us they will remain quite low.

Next week

Our overall pattern next week may be determined to some extent by the evolution of two tropical systems—Invests 97L and 98L, the latter of which may become a tropical storm within a couple of days—and whether they track toward the Gulf. The tropical pattern is pretty complex, and we have way more questions than answers. For me, the bottom line is that mostly likely we’re going to see more August-like weather to end the month. Could we be significantly impacted by tropical weather? Absolutely. But for now I’d bet on more heat, sunshine, and back-burner rain chances.