Our confidence is increasing in severe storms early Wednesday morning

Summary: Much of the area is likely to see a line of intense thunderstorms move through early on Wednesday morning. We’re most concerned about the potential for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

We’ve seen more data today that supports the development of severe storms early on Wednesday morning, including an unstable atmosphere and the kind of shear that promotes strong thunderstorms. There’s more one might say in meteorological terms, but the bottom line is that there is a lot of potential energy in the atmosphere waiting to be released.

That will happen overnight, as a surface front advances across Texas. This will produce a line of storms moving from west to east across the Houston metro area. In terms of timing, I expect the line to move across Houston approximately between 3am and 7am CT. These will be progressive storms, so although the rainfall is likely to be intense, it should pass fairly quickly. Most areas are likely to pick up 1 to 2 inches, but there could be higher isolated totals.

The biggest risk is not from flooding, but rather is likely to come from the threat of damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Not all areas will see these effects, of course. But the majority of the area will see a period of strong winds and intense lighting and thunder. The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms is north of Interstate 10, but the models have been trending toward effects south of that boundary as well, perhaps almost all the way to the coast. In short, be prepared to be awoken tonight.

The majority of our guidance suggests that the storms pass to the east of the metro area by 7am or 8am on Wednesday, hopefully clearing out before the peak of the morning rush hour. But please be aware that some effects, such as low-lying street flooding, may persist. Skies should clear out pretty quickly as the front arrives, with drier air. Thus the rest of Wednesday looks breezy, but with no weather concerns.