[OC] Impact of every Week 5 game on Texans playoff odds.

I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 5 game are.

The Texans current odds to make the playoffs are 30.9%.

• If you beat the Ravens, that goes up to 40.2%, but if you lose, it drops down to 20.2%. It's a swing of 20.0%.
• NE @ BUF is the second most impactful week 5 game for you guys. If the Bills win, your playoff odds go up by 0.4%. If the Patriots win your playoff odds go down by 1.5%.
• DEN @ PHI is the third most impactful game with a total impact of 1.7%. Your playoff odds go up if the Eagles win.

I also made a website and posted the full results there. I'll update it every week with the upcoming games. Here's the data:

Game	Optimal Winner	Impact Δ	If Win	If Lose	Game Time
HOU @ BAL	HOU	20.0%	+9.3%	-10.7%	Sun 10/05 1:00 PM ET
NE @ BUF	BUF	1.9%	+0.4%	-1.5%	Sun 10/05 8:20 PM ET
DEN @ PHI	PHI	1.7%	+0.6%	-1.1%	Sun 10/05 1:00 PM ET
LV @ IND	LV	1.1%	+0.8%	-0.3%	Sun 10/05 1:00 PM ET
WSH @ LAC	WSH	1.1%	+0.6%	-0.4%	Sun 10/05 4:25 PM ET
MIA @ CAR	CAR	0.8%	+0.4%	-0.4%	Sun 10/05 1:00 PM ET
MIN @ CLE	MIN	0.8%	+0.3%	-0.5%	Sun 10/05 9:30 AM ET
DET @ CIN	DET	0.7%	+0.1%	-0.6%	Sun 10/05 4:25 PM ET
KC @ JAX	KC	0.7%	+0.2%	-0.4%	Mon 10/06 8:15 PM ET
DAL @ NYJ	DAL	0.6%	+0.2%	-0.3%	Sun 10/05 1:00 PM ET
SF @ LAR	SF	0.1%	+0.1%	-0.0%	Thu 10/02 8:15 PM ET
TB @ SEA	SEA	0.1%	+0.0%	-0.1%	Sun 10/05 4:05 PM ET
NYG @ NO	NYG	0.1%	+0.0%	-0.0%	Sun 10/05 1:00 PM ET
TEN @ ARI	TEN	0.0%	+0.0%	-0.0%	Sun 10/05 4:05 PM ET

I use this data as a rooting guide for the 1-3 games each week where I don't already know who I want to win.

If you want to see the details of my methodology for the Monte Carlo simulations, look here.

You can also see which teams are rooting for and against you this week here.

There's also a What-If Tool where you can pick winners and losers of any games this season and recalculate your odds.

I'm going to be scaling back these posts since I don't have time to post the data to all 32 team subreddits each week. I'd really prefer for it to be posted by a fan of the team anyway, since I'm not really a part of this community. So if any of you want to take over the weekly post for this sub, DM me (just so there aren't multiple people posting it each week).