[OC] Impact of every Week 2 game on Texans playoff odds.

I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 2 game are.

The Texans current odds to make the playoffs are 46.7%.

If you beat the Buccaneers, that goes up to 53.2%, but if you lose, it drops down to 38.5%. It's a swing of 14.8%.
DEN @ IND is the second most impactful week 2 game for you guys. If the Broncos win, your playoff odds go up by 1.0%. If the Colts win your playoff odds go down by 1.1%.
JAX @ CIN is the third most impactful game with a total impact of 1.8%. Your playoff odds go up if the Bengals win.

I also made a website and posted the full results there. I'll update it every week with the upcoming games. Here's the data:

Game	Optimal Winner	If Win	If Lose	Impact Δ	Game Time
TB @ HOU	HOU	+6.5%	-8.2%	14.8%	Mon 09/15 7:00 PM ET
DEN @ IND	DEN	+1.0%	-1.1%	2.1%	Sun 09/14 4:05 PM ET
JAX @ CIN	CIN	+0.6%	-1.2%	1.8%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
LAR @ TEN	LAR	+0.5%	-0.7%	1.2%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
SEA @ PIT	SEA	+0.6%	-0.4%	1.0%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
CLE @ BAL	CLE	+0.8%	-0.1%	0.9%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
PHI @ KC	PHI	+0.5%	-0.4%	0.8%	Sun 09/14 4:25 PM ET
BUF @ NYJ	BUF	+0.1%	-0.2%	0.3%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
LAC @ LV	LV	+0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%	Mon 09/15 10:00 PM ET
NE @ MIA	MIA	+0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
ATL @ MIN	ATL	+0.1%	-0.0%	0.1%	Sun 09/14 8:20 PM ET
WSH @ GB	GB	+0.0%	-0.0%	0.1%	Thu 09/11 8:15 PM ET
CAR @ ARI	ARI	+0.0%	-0.0%	0.1%	Sun 09/14 4:05 PM ET
CHI @ DET	DET	+0.0%	-0.0%	0.1%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
SF @ NO	SF	+0.0%	-0.0%	0.0%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET
NYG @ DAL	NYG	+0.0%	-0.0%	0.0%	Sun 09/14 1:00 PM ET

If you want to see the details of my methodology for the Monte Carlo simulations, look here.

You can also see which teams are rooting for and against you this week here.

There's also a What-If Tool where you can pick winners and losers of any games this season and recalculate your odds.