More like late July than late May in Houston for Memorial Day Weekend

In brief: Summer’s here, and through Memorial Day you will find little to no relief in the area. From there, the weather pattern may get a little more unsettled next week, but nothing stands out that we can hang our hat on just yet.

I know that no one wants to talk about hurricane season after last week, but NOAA’s extremely active seasonal forecast released yesterday should remind us to plan for the season to come. We wrote about their forecast and the current state of the tropics yesterday at our companion site, The Eyewall. We’ll be updating that site every day or two going forward as the weather requires.

For those struggling with continued poor air quality thanks to the haze and smoke from agricultural fires in Central America and Mexico, I don’t think we will see much relief this weekend. I am hopeful we get a shift in wind next week though.

Yesterday’s low temperature at Hobby Airport was 80 degrees, the third time already we’ve failed to drop below that mark this year. We’ve already tied for the earliest first 80 degree morning on record at Hobby this year, on May 21st, matching the previous record set in 2022. We are running about a month and a half ahead of normal, for whatever “normal” is worth anymore. Today will be the seventh morning where the low temperature has failed to drop below 78 degrees, which sets a new record at Hobby for the most before June 1st. We should add at least three or four more days to that before we get a wee bit of relief next week just before the calendar changes.

Anyway, I write all this to say that this is not a normal start to summer. It’s hitting strong and fast. And don’t be shocked to see a heat advisory this weekend. Practice heat safety this weekend. Yeah, it’s Houston and it’s always hot in summer. But we are not yet acclimated to these temperatures for the season, so heat illness can come on quick and unexpectedly. Some of us are still cleaning up from last week or even still without power. Check on those folks, keep your pets cool, and look before you lock.

Today through Sunday

The front portion of the holiday weekend looks partly to mostly sunny and hot. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows near 80, or essentially normal weather for late July, not late May.

I would not be entirely floored to see an isolated thunderstorm roll through areas north of Houston, perhaps as close as The Woodlands or Magnolia. Most people will not see one, but if you do, it could rain hard for a short time, with lightning, gusty winds, or even some hail. Again, this is most likely to be isolated and north of Highway 105, but perhaps as close as Montgomery or northern Harris County.

Memorial Day

This should be the hottest day of the stretch. Expect mid to upper 90s and a mix of sun and clouds with just a slight chance of a late shower or storm north and west.

Sunday and Monday’s heat will border on “extreme” levels, so maximum heat precautions should be taken here.

Rest of next week

Things start to change a bit next week. Temperatures will shift to become a little “less hot,” which means more like low-90s than mid-90s. Nighttime lows may drift back more into the mid-70s. A series of disturbances may try to erode away the northeast portion of the ridge of high pressure over Texas, so that could be just enough to fire back up some thunderstorms after Monday. I don’t even want to begin to speculate on timing or details or any of that. Just know that the stagnant pattern of this weekend may change a bit next week.