Introduction:

Now that the Super Bowl is over, the offseason begins. The Texans start with the 4th most (57.34M) total cap and 5th most (53.97M) ineffective cap (51 players + current draft picks). The goal of this is to have fun, see what's possible, be somewhat realistic, and not cripple the team after 2024. I got contract values and projections from PFF. We'd all love to resign everyone on our team, add Chris Jones, Saquon Barkley, etc. but we don't have enough money.

Quarterback:

We have a starting quarterback. We have two capable QBs. This isn’t a top priority but I could see us taking a later-round QB and developing for the next year to be the backup when we let Mills walk.

Running Back:

Running back is a need for this team. We either need to resign Singletary or find a replacement. Singletary came on at the end of the year and played well. I expect Pierce to improve in year 2 but we still need to address the position.

• Saquon Barkley (27.0) – 2 years, 11 APY, 15 guaranteed, 22M Total
• Josh Jacobs (25.9) – 3 years, 11.5 APY, 21.25 guaranteed, 34.5M Total
• Derek Henry (29.5) – 2 years, 10.0 APY, 13 guaranteed, 20M Total
• D’Andre Swift (25.0) – 3 years, 6.25 APY, 12 guaranteed, 18.75M Total
• Devin Singletary (26.4) – 3 years, 4.25 APY, 8.5 guaranteed, 12.75M Total

Tight end is a position where we can go in multiple directions. I think most people want Dalton Schultz back. I don’t think we’ll find a better tight end in free agency or in the draft. PFF is projected Schults to get a 3 year, 33M (11 APY) contract. Brevin Jordan flashed but would have to step up to fill Schultz’s role. If we sign Barkley, we won’t be able to sign Schultz. If we don’t sign a top-tiered RB, we still might not be able to afford Schultz. back on a minimum deal or look for a street free agent for cheap. I like swinging for the fence and going for Barkley. When healthy, and that is always a question for older RBs despite him being healthy for the last few years, Barkley will help take our offense to the next level. He's a great pass-catcher and a game-changer in the running game. The Texans offense with Barkley will be much improved in 2024.

Sign Saquon Barkley – 4 years, 10M at signing, 28 guaranteed, 47.5M Total

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Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	8.000	2.500	8.000	10.500
2025	8.500	2.500	8.000	11.000
2026	9.000	2.500	2.000	11.500
2027	12.000	2.500	—–	14.500

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A comparable contract is for Jonathon Taylor who signed a 3 year, 42 million dollar contract with 10 million at signing and 26.5 guaranteed (14 APY and 3rd of all RB). For Saquon, effectively this is a 3-year contract where he is cut after the 2026 season, and we eat 2.5 million in dead cap. I think the risk of someone like Saquon is worth it and one we can take because of the position we are in with our salary cap and QB on a rookie contract. Adding a dynamic player to the run/pass game will drastically improve. It’s not a crippling contract if it doesn’t work out.

Wide Receiver:

Nico Collins and Tank Dell having breakout years makes this less of a position of need. However, in the NFL having extra weapons never hurts. Players miss time and have bad games so having depth is extremely important. That being said I think we cut Robert Woods to save 5.000M and we let Noah Brown walk. I’m comfortable going into the draft with where we’re at. I think Hutchinson and Metchie should improve however I’m not opposed to adding talent in the draft and I think we need to add some depth before the draft.

Cut Robert Woods, Save 5.000M

Let Noah Brown Walk

Sign Brandon Powell, 2 year, 1M at signing/guaranteed, 3.65 M Total

Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	1.250	0.500	—-	1.750
2025	1.400	0.500	—-	1.900

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This isn’t a splash, but I think he's a solid depth option. He had some flashes on special teams and when Jefferson, Addison, and Hockinson were hurt this year. He’s a smaller guy who can account for some manufactured touches in lieu of Tank Dell. There’s another risk-reward decision to make at wide receiver. I think this would be a great time to extend Nico Collins. He had a breakout season with CJ and has improved every year of his career. At 25 years old, he’s just entering his prime. Sporttrac estimates ~22M APY as his value. Extending him now allows us to spread his signing bonus out over an extra year without adding void years and borrowing from the future. Giving him a contract also helps set the culture and shows players if they perform, they will be rewarded.

Resign Nico Collins, 4 years, 40M at signing, 62.5M guaranteed, 84M Total (21 APY)

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Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	2.992	8.225	2.500	11.217
2025	9.500	8.000	8.000	17.500
2026	10.500	8.000	7.000	18.500
2027	11.500	8.000	5.000	19.500
2028	12.500	8.000	—–	20.500

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Comparable Contract Terry McLaurin (23.2 APY, #8 WR) 3 years, 28M at signing, 53.154 guaranteed, 68M Total. Hopefully, Nico takes the guaranteed money in exchange for a slightly (1M APY) lower salary and we lock him up for the remainder of CJ's rookie contract.

Tight End:

Tight end is a position where we can go in multiple directions. I think most people want Dalton Schultz back. I don’t think we’ll find a better tight end in free agency or in the draft. PFF is projected Schults to get a 3 year, 33M (11 APY) contract. Brevin Jordan flashed but would really have to step up to fill Schultz’s role. If we sign Barkley, we won’t be able to sign Schultz. If we don’t sign a top-tiered RB, we still might not be able to afford Schultz.

Let Dalton Schultz Walk

Tackle:

We’re set with our starting tackles. We will need depth. I think it comes from free agency/resigning players.

Resign George Fant, 1 year, 0.5M at signing, 1.0M guaranteed, 2.0M Total

Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	1.500	0.500	—-	2.000

Interior OL:

Interior OL is another spot I think we’re solid at. Green has been disappointing but maybe in year 3, he’ll win the starting job. If not, he’ll serve as the backup guard. Patterson, Mason, Scruggs, and Green are good enough that I don’t think we invest anything in free agency other than a depth player. I would like to sign Kevin Zeitler (2 years, 7M APY, 15M total) but I don’t think we have the cap space to add a player like him.

Interior DL:

Sheldon Rankins is a free agent. Malik Collins has two years left on his deal. IDL is a position we need to address in free agency and the draft. We won’t be able to afford one of the top talents.

• Chris Jones (29.6) – 4 years, 30M APY, 80M guaranteed, 120M Total
• Justin Madubuike (26.2) – 4 years, 23M APY, 60.25M guaranteed, 92M Total
• Christian Wilkins (28.1) – Franchise Tag
• Leonard Williams (29.6) – 3 years, 17.25M APY, 37.25M guaranteed, 51.75M Total
• DJ Reader (29.6) – 3 years, 15.25M APY, 29.75M guaranteed, 45.75M Total
• Sheldon Rankins (29.8) – 2 years, 10M APY, 12M guaranteed, 20M Total

Resign Sheldon Rankins, 2 years, 6M at signing, 12M guaranteed, 20M Total

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Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	6.500	4.750	4.000	11.250
2025	7.500	6.500	2.000	14.000

includes 5.25M in money from a previous contract

Edge:

Jon Greenard, Jerry Hughes, and Derek Barnett are all free agents. Hughes might retire, I think the other two are high priority free agents. When healthy, Greenard has been great for his entire career. I feel comfortable giving him a 4 year deal. Barnett wasn’t great in Phili this last year or really any previous years. After coming to Houston, he went from average to a stud. If we get the same production out of him this year, he’ll be looking at a large contract. He seems like the type of player that both sides can benefit from a prove it type deal.

Resign Jon Greenard, 4 years, 20M at signing, 44M guaranteed, 62M Total

Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	9.750	5.000	9.000	14.750
2025	10.250	5.000	8.000	15.250
2026	10.750	5.000	6.000	15.750
2027	11.250	5.000	1.000	16.250

A comparable contract is for Uchenna Nwosu 3 year, 45M (15 APY #18 Edge), 15M at signing, 32M guaranteed.

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Resign Derek Barnett, 1 year, 1M at signing, 1.5M guaranteed, 4M Total

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Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	3.000	1.000	0.500	4.000

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Linebacker:

Our linebackers all had career years. I credit that to De’Meco. Perryman and Cashman are pending free agents. We need to bring one back. Christian Harris was much improved this year and got better as the year went on. Henry To’oto’o had an average season for a rookie LB. I expect both to improve next year. I think the best option is to resign Cashman, let To’oto’o compete with either a depth free agent or a rookie LB for playing time.

Let Denzel Perryman Walk

Resign Blake Cashman, 3 years, 6M at signing, 9M guaranteed, 13.5m Total

Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	3.200	2.000	2.000	5.200
2025	3.600	2.000	1.000	5.600
2026	4.000	2..000	—–	6.000

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Cornerback:

Stingley has been great when healthy. Steven Nelson had also been very solid. We have a lot of pending free agents with Steve Nelson, Travierre Thomas, Desmond King, and Eric Murray. We should bring back Nelson and Thomas or King, sign a depth free agent and target corner in the draft this year and next. Nelson is already 31 and I don’t think he gets a long term deal from anyone.

Let Desmond King Walk

Resign Steven Nelson 2 years, 6.0M at signing, 9M guaranteed, 14.25M Total

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Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	7.000	3.000	2.000	7.283
2025	7.250	3.000	1.000	8.100

– Includes 1.134M in money from a previous contract

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Resign Travierre Thomas 2 years, 2M at signing, 3M guaranteed, 6.25M Total

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Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000
2025	2.225	1.000	—–	3.250

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Safety:

Safety is a need for us. We signed Jimmie Ward last year and I think he could be cut this year. If we cut him, we have 4.000M in dead money and 4.000M in savings. I don’t think we’ll be able to find a better player than Ward. He can play in the slot if we need (would negate the Thomas signing but then require addressing free safety) and as a free safety. Pitre can play free or strong safety and still has 2 years left on his rookie deal. We will need some depth and I think safety will be a target for us in the draft. Ward won’t be back till after next year so we should find his replacement in this year’s draft as safeties typically take time to develop.

Special Teams:

Both Ka’imi Fairbairn and Cameron Johnston are pending free agents. Fairbairn sits at #7 (87.065%) for career FG%. 2023 was his best season at 96.4% with his only miss from 50+. A comparable contract for him is Jason Myers who signed a 4 year 21.2 million dollar contract with 7.5 million at signing and 8.665 million guaranteed. This ranks 4th among kickers at 5.275 APY.

Resign Ka’imi Fairbairn: 4 years, 8M at signing, 10.5M guaranteed, 21.6M Total

Year	Salary	Pro-Rated Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	CAP #
2024	2.800	2.339	1.500	5.199
2025	3.200	2.339	1.000	5.559
2026	3.600	2.339	—-	5.999
2027	4.000	2.339	—–	6.399

• Includes 1.599M in money from a previous contract

  Johnston was middle of the league in punting average (not the best stat), fringe top 10 at touchbacks and #8 in punts inside the 20. A comparable contract is Mitch Wishnowsky who signed a 4 year 11.2 million dollar contract with 3.715 million at signing and 3.715 million guaranteed. This ranks 9th among punters at 2.800 APY. I think this is a little low. Jack Fox’s contract is valued at ~3.5 APY.

Let him walk.

We have money we can spend but 3 million plus on a punter seems like a luxury. I don’t think he’s worth top 5 punter money and a 7th-round rookie or street free agent will save 2+ million at this position.

Draft

Going into the draft, we don't have any glaring holes. There are places we can improve on but we should be able to go BPA. I think there are two directions we can go in the first round of draft, WR or DT/CB. Both are solid but could be improved. I think there's a good chance that one of the top corners and WR are on the board. Murphy or Newton would be a consideration if they are there as well.

Trade 23 & 127 to Arizona for 27, 66, 188 & 225

Trade 123, 188 & 2025 R4 to Detroit for 92

R1.27 – Brian Thomas Jr., Wide Receiver, LSU

Going into the draft without any glaring holes, allows us to go BPA. In this mock, Thomas Jr, Franklin, and Mitchell were available, Koolaid was available at CB, and DTs were all off the board. With the departure of Schultz and the addition of Barkley, we have playmakers. I’d be comfortable with Metchie and Hutchinson competing for WR3 but it’s also something we can upgrade. Arizona proposed a trade to come up and get Koolaid and we net an early 3rd, 5th, and 7th while sending one of our 4ths to move down a few spots. I went with Thomas over Franklin. He’s taller and bigger than Franklin but slower. He’ll need to improve his route running to be elite in the NFL but that’s coachable. We have elite talent and solid depth for 2024 and 2025 with Collins, Tank, Thomas, Metchie, and Hutchinson.

R2.59 – Tyler Nubin, Safety, Minnesota

I was surprised Nubin was still there at 59. I was targeting a different player but Nubin’s value here is too much to pass on. Nubin lacks elite speed but is fast enough to play all over the field. He’s smart, instinctive, and is an excellent tackler. We can play him in the slot, box, or single high. He was a playmaker in Minnesota’s secondary and will be in the conversation for safety 1.

R3.66 – T’Vondre Sweat, Nose Tackle, Texas

I wanted Sweat at 59 but he ended up being available at 66. Sweat is a massive person (6’4” 360-380) who moves very well. He’s a 2 down player with some surprising upside rushing the passer. He has elite size and strength, can take on double teams, and clog running lanes. Sweat needs to control his weight and improve his block-shedding if he wants to be a 3-down player. He’s got great value as a 2 down player and will provide a bolster to our run and red zone defense.

R3.85 – Johnny Wilson, Wide Receiver, Florida State

I’m usually not a fan of trading future picks for players but I think this one is worth it. We trade 123, 188, and a 4th next year to Detroit for 92. Why draft a 6’6” 235 lb receiver after we took one in the first? The answer is to convert him to a tight end. The top TEs in this year's class all sit at around 250 lbs. I’d ask Wilson to add 15-20 lbs and become a pass-catching TE. At 235 he’ll ruin in the 4.4s and has plus athleticism. His blocking at Florida State was good but could be improved. This pick is more for 2025 as I think he needs time to develop (especially at a new position) and insurance if Brevin Jordan leaves.

R3.92 – Kris Abrams-Draine, Cornerback, Missouri

This is another pick that’s looking towards 2025 instead of 2024. KAD has played outside and in the slot. At the next level, he’ll primarly be a slot corner. He’s a smaller but athletic corner. He’ll need to add weight and play at 185 versus the 170 he played at in college. For 2024 he’ll back up Thomas, learn the system, and adjust to NFL live. He’s got great coverage skills, breaks on routes, has great instincts but will need to improve his strength and tackling at the next level.

R5.164 – Joe Milton, Quarterback, Tennessee

This pick is looking ahead to 2025. Davis Mills and Case Keenum both will be free agents. I don’t think either would require us to break the bank but I could also see someone giving Mills a chance to be a starter that he won’t get in Houston. Milton is big with a huge arm and can move around. He needs time to develop, and he’ll get that in 2024.

R7.225 – Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Edge, Washington

ZTF didn’t take the next step many were hoping he would in 2023. He’s on the smaller side (6’3”, 248) for edges, he has a good first step and converts speed to power. He played a decent amount of coverage snaps and needs to improve his hand usage. In the 7th, he’s a solid player who will provide depth in the near turn and could develop into a solid rotational piece.

R7.239 – Brevin Spann-Ford, Tight End, Minnesota

Brevin Spann-Ford is a massive tight end. He’s listed as 6’7”, 270 pounds. He had a much better 2022 season than the 2023 season. In 2023 he wasn’t a great threat in the passing game and was plagued by drops. He had 5 drops in his career going into 2023 and dropped 9 passes at a staggering 26.5% in 2023. He excels as a run blocker and does well as a pass blocker. He’s an interesting player that opens up special packages and his size as an offensive lineman with pass-catching ability will create mismatches in the NFL, especially in the red zone.

R7.248 – Troy Taylor, Punter, Iowa

With letting Johnston walk, we need a punter. We most likely bring in a street free agent and let him compete with Taylor. Taylor led Iowa’s great punting game and is the top punter in the draft. Going away from Johnston saves us ~2.000M while giving us potential upside from a league-average punter.

Summary

We started with 57.394M in cap space for 2024. After all the signings we’re left with 5.873M in cap space going into the draft. That is roughly what we’ll need to sign all our draft picks and it probably will require some cuts. We’re left with 12.146M in dead/accelerated dead cap with no dead cap for 2025. We have 37.342M in cap for 2025 with the following notable free agents: Brevin Jordon, Andrew Beck, Jon Weeks, Case Keenum, and a few depth players. If we don’t extend Nico, then add him to that list.

With the outcome of the draft, Jimmie Ward is expendable. Cutting him would save 4.000M in 2025. We can create more cap room this year by restructuring (Mallik) Collins, Mason, Howard, or Tunsil. We probably will need to create some cap space for in-season signings. Restructuring 6.000M of Collins’ salary into a bonus buys us ~3.000M in cap room this year and reduces 2025 by that amount. Alternatively, if we need cap room, we don’t extend Nico. I’m in favor of restructuring which gets us to 10.790M in cap room before draft picks.

Our depth chart looks really good across the board for starters. There don't appear to be any glaring weaknesses (maybe TE). We lack depth at RB, CB, and LB. I expect to bring in some one year backups to fill out the roster.

Highlighted is a new addition, italic is a 2025 Free Agent

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Pos	Starter	Backup	3rd
QB	CJ Stroud	Davis Mills	Case Keenum	Joe Milton
RB	Saquon Barkley	Dameon Pierce
FB	Andrew Beck
WR	Nico Collins	Xavier Hutchinson
WR	Brian Thomas Jr	John Methcie III
S-WR	Tank Dell	Brandon Powell
TE	Brevin Jordan	Johnny Wilson	Tegan Quitoriano	Brevin Spann-Ford
LT	Larmey Tunsil	George Fant
LG	Juice Scruggs	Kenyon Green
C	Jarrett Patterson	Kendrick Green	Dieter Eislen
RG	Shaq Mason	Nick Broker
RT	Tytus Howard	Charlie Heck	Kilian Zierer
LDE	Will Anderson Jr.	Myjai Sanders	Zion Tupuola-Fetui
LDT	Sheldon Rankins	T'Vondre Sweat	Kahlil Davis
RDT	Maliek Collins	Kurt Hinish
RDE	Jon Greenard	Derek Barnett	Dylan Horton
WLB	Christian Harris	Jake Hansen
MLB	Blake Cashman
SLB	Henry To'oTo'o
LCB	Derek Stingley	Kris Abrams-Draine
SS	Jalen Pitre	MJ Steward
FS	Tyler Nubin	DeAndre Houston-Carson
RCB	Steven Nelson	Ka'dar Hollman
SCB	Jimmie Ward	Travierre Thomas
K	Troy Taylor
P	Ka'imi Fairbairn
LS	Jon Weeks

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