Josh Hader Shouldn’t be the Closer for the Houston Astros

Our story opens on July 31st 2016, The Yankees (where Joe Espada was into his second season as 3rd base coach) were selling in the midst of an underwhelming season and there two most valuable pieces were a pair of dominate lefty relievers. One their closer, Aroldis Chapman was dealt to the cubs. Though despite being the teams designated closer with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP he wasn't even the best yankee lefty reliever dealt at that deadline.

Elsewhere the Cleveland Guardians closer Cody Allen has a 2.58 ERA with a .190 BAA, 11.32 K/9, and a 1.08 WHIP. But that doesn't stop them from making the following move:

New York Yankees traded Andrew Miller to Cleveland Indians in exchange for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen.

Andrew Miller at the time he was dealt had a 1.39ERA, 1.74BAA, 15.3 K/9 and a 0.772 WHIP in 45.1 innings. He "regressed" to a 1.55 ERA, 14.3 K/9, 0.552 WHIP, and .139 BAA.

But one of the things that made miller use so special (the other being that francona loved to use him spread over multiple innings, something that hader too used to do in Milwaukee) was that Francona used Miller against the top of the opposing teams order, no matter the inning. His ability to come into a game and strike out batters made him invaluable to cut down the top of a teams lineup and make life easier on the closer. I think this is best illistrated by Miller's use in game 3 of the 2016 world series. Francona brought him in to face Miguel Montero (PHing for the pitcher) in the bottom of the fifth, then let him face the cubs 1-3 (fowler, bryant, rizzo) all of which he struck out to keep the game tied at 0-0. Come the top of the 7th coco crisp singled home a run and the guardians had cycled through the top of the cubs order, not to come up again til they faced their closer, cody allen, in the 9th. With the yankees Miller appeared only one time before the eight inning in 2016. In 2017, with the guardians Miller appeared in 28 games before the 8th inning (he appeared in 29 games in the 8th and ninth). And this worked well for the Guardians. Allen added 3.24 championship win probability (cWPA) in the ALDS, 7.29 cWPA in the ALCS, while Miller contributed 2.02 cWPA in the ALDS and 8.58 cWPA as well as a ALCS MVP in the ALCS. But where the importance of allen showed was in the world series. Allen sported a whopping 16.73 cWPA, compared to Miller's -1.33 cWPA. Allen's clutch abilities saw his 6 innings collect 12Ks in the guardians eventual loss. The Guardians brought back the same approach in 2017, with allen again posting another great year with a sub 3 ERA and 30 Saves. Miller himself floated more in 2017 but it didn't hurt him one bit to the tune of a 1.44 ERA although only collecting 2 saves on the season.

So lets fast forward to now. Pressly is coming off his worst full season in an astros uniform to date and josh hader has just been signed. People obviously think that Hader is a shoe in for the closer role due to the money we are paying him and his previous experience there. So what to do with the players. Pressly will obviously age out of the closer role, or his contract will expire somewhat soon but pressly has also been with the team for three world series appearances (a closer for 2 of them) and 6 of our 7 ALCS appearances. Hader's K/9 in 2023 were 13.6 but has reached heights of 16.4 in 2019. The Astros also have just lost Hector Neris, one of our best relievers in 2023. Hader doesn't quite have the GB% that Miller had so he may not be the player you want if you are in need of a GIDP, but Hader still is better than league average at handling inherited runners. That said Hader has the elite strike out ability to handle the top of any teams lineup. Like Miller, hader was also a converted starter, and during his time with the brewers he had a history of getting multi inning appearances. Not restricting him to coming into a game in the ninth means that the astros could also work on bringing this aspect back to hader's arsenal. Using him to strong arm teams in the sixth, seventh, and/or eighth innings to take down the top of a teams order may be the best value for hader. Allowing our order to go to work against a teams bullpen. It also can lead to an easier job for pressly if we can hand off an easier portion of the lineup to him to close out games.

So in my opinion hader should be used as francona used Miller, strong arming teams in a game's highest leverage situation (that could even be the ninth!) and sometimes even for multiple inning appearances. Pressly may not stick as closer if he posts another mediocre (by his standards) season, but to start the season if we can ease the opponents pressly is facing, he might just bounce back. Lets let Hader stab them through the heart, Abreu can play with them while they flounder, and we'll let Pressly put them out of their misery.