It’s Not About Plate Approach

Look, I'm as frustrated as anyone when one of our guys goes up there and first-pitch hacks into a bouncer to shortstop. It just feels annoying. But here's the thing: this team's problem is not about free swinging early in the count, in any way, shape or form. Here's the team's MLB rank in pitches-per-plate appearance, and rank in runs scored, by season:

So our highest P/PA season was also our highest runs scored season. But that's not an explanation for why our offense is anemic this year, when they were dead last in 2022 and still a top-6 offense, or 27th in 2023 and a top-5 offense.

As a Fangraphs writer found:

As you might be able to tell there is no real correlation between pitches seen and runs scored. The correlation coefficient, by the way, is R = -0.0486. If you are unfamiliar with correlation coefficients, all you really need to understand is a correlation coefficient of 0 displays no real correlation between the data. The correlation here is slightly negative but it’s too small or too close to zero to really be interpreted as a negative correlation.

So look: it's frustrating when this team scores zero runs against the worst team in baseball. But there is no correlation between pitches per plate appearance and runs scored.

Fun fact: the team leader in pitches seen per plate appearance is Jose Abreu.