It’s going to be very, very hot again this week—but here’s why things will eventually change

Good morning. I hope you had a wonderful weekend. While I would love to say that this is the week that Houston’s heat finally breaks, I cannot. We are actually amidst the climatologically warmest part of the year in Houston. From the period of July 29 through August 12, the average high peaks at 96 degrees, and the average low at 76 degrees.

However, after this week, we really will start to slowly slide toward fall. That is largely driven by shorter days and the Sun rising lower in the sky. Houston’s day length is already nearly 40 minutes shorter than it was at the peak of summer, and the Sun lower in the sky. By the end of this month, the day will be an hour and 17 minutes shorter, and instead of the Sun reaching a zenith of 84 degrees at midday, it will max out at 69 degrees. So fall is coming, if slowly.

But not this week. High pressure will more or less hold sway, and there’s not much else to say. Highs will be around 100 degrees each day, and if we consult the wet bulb globe temperature forecast, which factors in humidity, winds, and other variables, we can see that daily heat will reach extreme levels. Sorry, it’s going to be pretty miserable. Please practice heat safety.

Monday

High temperatures today will reach 100 degrees, or above, for pretty much the entire metro area. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances are less than 10 percent, and winds will blow at just 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

Our forecast is the same—bleak, barren, and hot.

Saturday and Sunday

If you were looking for a major pattern change by this weekend, unfortunately, I don’t see it happening. Forecast highs will be on the order of 100 degrees, or hotter for inland areas, with mostly sunny skies.

Next week

But what about next week? Is there hope? Careful readers will recall Matt writing on Friday that the heat may relax a bit by the second half of August. Global models do start to trend temperatures down a bit in seven to nine days from now, but only slightly. Rain chances also look to be on the upswing. However, these trends are far from definitive. I’m hopeful that this will be the last really, really hot week. But I’m not ready to firmly predict that yet.