Is this week Houston’s last shot at a freeze for the winter of 2022-2023?

Here’s the short answer up front: Probably. Barring some kind of an unexpected, freakishly cold front coming through in the next few weeks, we’re done.

Now, for a longer answer. Crazier things have happened. Houston’s latest ever recorded freeze came on April 10, 1973. However, the odds are against this. For areas south of Interstate 10, we are already past the “average” date of the region’s last freeze, and we’re fast approaching that date for areas along and north of Interstate 10. For areas further inland, such as Conroe, the typical date of the last freeze comes in late February.

After a front moves through early tomorrow, we are going to see a couple of days of colder weather. Some far inland areas, including Conroe, have a chance of seeing a light freeze on Friday and Saturday mornings. But after that? We look to be near or above normal, in terms of temperatures, for the rest of February. So I would be surprised if it froze again. For areas along and south of Interstate 10, I’d put the chance of another freeze this season at 10 percent or less. For the northern half of the metro area, it is probably about 25 percent, or less.

Wednesday

Patchy to dense fog is present this morning as winds are light, and dewpoints and temperatures nearly match in the upper 60s. As temperatures warm this morning, the fog will dissipate, and leave us with cloudy skies. A very few, scattered showers will be possible later this morning and during the afternoon hours, with highs reaching about 80 degrees. Tonight will be sticky warm until the front comes through.

Thursday

Speaking of said front, a broken line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will herald its arrival. They’ll pass quickly. Generally, we can expect the front to reach western portions of the region, such as Katy, around 3 to 5 am on Thursday, downtown from 5 to 7 am, and the coast from 7 to 9 am. Showers will end quickly with the front’s passage, but clouds will remain. Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s in the morning, and perhaps the 50s during the afternoon, as brisk northerly winds gust to 30 mph or so and bring in colder, drier air. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the upper 30s for much of Houston.

Friday

A sunny, and chilly day, with highs in the mid-50s. Winds will still be around, but backing off into the 10 to 15 mph range, with higher gusts. Lows Friday night will again drop into the upper 30s, with a light freeze possible for far inland areas.

Saturday

One more cool day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s. As winds start to turn more southerly, temperatures will be warmer, in the 40s, overnight.

Sunday

Expect mostly sunny, and fine weather with highs around 70 degrees or a tick above.

Next week

Washington’s Birthday should see warmer conditions, with partly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees. Some sort of front is going to try and make it through by mid-week, but I’m not 100 percent confident that will happen. A smattering of rain chances pop up around the same time, but they’re not particularly impressive looking.