Interesting Prospects

A fan here recently posted a nice "profile" (I don't remember what it was called) going over Cam Fisher, a prospect in our system drafted last year. He's actually even better than that guy thinks he is. I've been following him since draft day and one look at his swing should tell you everything you need to know. His swing is not just major league ready. It is better than 90% of major leaguer's swings, maybe even more than that. He has a good eye at the plate. His hurdle is adjusting to velocity and good breaking pitches: all things the Astros, even in their dearth of real knowledge on swing mechanics (much like the rest of the league), can still help by refining his approach at the plate. Part of that, I think, will either be discovering he needs glasses or toning down the vertical movement of his head by finding a place where he can be comfortable swinging while completely still. Either way, these two parts of his game are things I think traditional scouts overlooked, who focus way too much on strikeouts and "advanced" approaches at the college level. Sometimes these players have just reached their peak fast than others. Some players are still trying to refine the other parts of their game, and are just one hair tick away from unlocking their hit tool.

Fisher's swing mechanics are advanced far beyond the level of most major leaguers, as stated previously. At worst, I see this guy drifting around the minor leagues for a while if he doesn't break out for us at 24. At best, this guy is the next Pete Alonso. He is the most intriguing Astros prospect to me on the hitter's side.

As for Dombroski, one need only look at his debut in the minor leagues. The numbers don't even do justice to the year he had. James Click took him in the 4th round after posting a 3.13 ERA in 95 IP at Monmouth, but in the Cape Cod league (a pretty good opportunity for players where they use wooden bats and show off against better talent) he has a 0.85 ERA in 31.2 IP, doing all of this while walking 1.4 and 0.6 batters per nine respectively. That's not all. He also struck out an impressive 11.4 and 12.8 batters per nine. A combination of command and strikeout stuff is what jumps out on the page, but his durability is even more promising.

In his minor league debut, he pitched 119 innings to a 3.71 ERA, which is a lot of innings for someone coming right out of college into their first year. His delivery is simple and repeatable. His admittedly low velocity fastball works well up and on the outside part of the plate to go along with breaking pitches that tunnel remarkably well off of it. If you've ever seen him pitch, it is very strange from the home plate view. You can really watch the fastball float in, yet because of his command and deception, hitters are somehow always late because they know he can command his breaking pitches and must be aware that the pitch that looks exactly like the last fastball he threw (which they know is probably not an accident because they know he can locate back to back pitches) will dive out or fade away. His slider is his best secondary. Developing his changeup or designing a splitter will be essential if he wishes to pitch at higher levels, provided he doesn't also increase his velocity.

Which brings me to my next point. The Astros have drafted pitchers with great command and slightly promising stuff, I think, in hopes of finding the next George Kirby. With Dombroski, you have a guy with a nice little fastball from a low arm angle (and thus, though this data is not available, probably a low VAA) and a nice little slider with plus. maybe plus plus command who will be in the hands of the Astros pitching lab. That should give anyone a little intrigue. I expect his velo to increase just from our training program alone, but I doubt they will want to mess with his actual delivery much given how successful and durable he's been with it.

As mentioned before, his actual results in A were very good, but his 3.06 xFIP is what makes me think this guy has a real shot to be a starter for us. When a guy passes the eye test and the advanced numbers actually say he was better than his empirical results, it excites me. I don't know what his ceiling is, but I expect him to be a pretty consistent mover in our system, and expect him to be in our top 10 within the year. It may go better or worse. Who knows?

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edited for correction