I don’t understand the 4th and goal play.

I really don't understand this play and I'll try to explain why so that someone, hopefully with better knowledge, can help me.

Just before the snap

Presnap we have 2 receivers on the left side with Dare and Schultz on the right. We motioned Higgins and the Bucs appeared to be showing man coverage.

After the snap

We have 7 blockers and immediately roll Stroud to the left. We put every receiving target on the same side of the field, cluttering up the throwing area, and we cut block with our RB, meaning nobody has to respect him as a receiving threat and the LB responsible for him can now stay in coverage.

Nico runs in front of the player that had come with Higgins, presumably to pick him and leave Higgins open for a wide open TD. The problem is that the defense is ready for this, switch defenders, and now they have a numbers advantage.

The throw

With everyone covered, we have to rely on Stroud making a tight throw while running to his left. Not a very high percentage play. I'm not even sure that was the plan because Nico is running parallel to the line and not toward the back pylon where he's most likely to have it thrown.

I just don't understand how this is our best play for a "must score" 4th down. We cut the field in half for the defense, gave them a 6:3 numbers advantage, and hoped they would make a mistake for us to have a reasonable chance at scoring. We can argue that Schultz got held here (you see him calling for a flag) or that the Bucs made a good adjustment but I feel like the cut block from Dare and moving Stroud to the left make this play more difficult than having Dare chip and leak out with Stroud dropping back, reading left to right and potentially still having a running lane when the LB has to choose between following Dare or staying on Stroud.

I'm not experienced with football strategy so there may be things I'm not seeing correctly or otherwise misunderstanding but this play has really stuck with me.