Hurricane season started with a bang—so what does that mean?

Tropical Storm Cristobal made landall on Sunday evening in southeastern Louisiana, bringing winds, waves, and heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This seems as good of a time as any to take stock of a frenetic start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and assess what it means for the rest of the year.

Busy start

Cristobal formed on June 2 in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, and this was the earliest ever point in the Atlantic season that the third named storm has formed in a given year. (However imperfect, the Atlantic basin has records dating back to 1851). The previous earliest “C” storm was Colin, on June 5, 2016. Arthur and Bertha, which were both relatively weak and short lived storms, formed this year even before the season officially began on June 1.

This may seem like an ominous beginning to what seasonal forecasters have predicted to be a busy season. But according to hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, there is little correlation between early season storms and the total activity (in terms of number of storms and their overall intensity) for the remainder of the year. In fact, the correlation is slightly negative.

What this means is that we’re not really going to know the full tale of the 2020 season until about August, when activity in the tropical Atlantic Ocean—known as the Main Development Region—gets fired up. This is the period of summer when we start to watch tropical waves spin off the western coast of Africa, and develop into tropical systems as they migrate westward across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean Sea. We’re still about six to eight weeks from the opening of this period.

2020 forecast

Klotzbach, who runs the most well known seasonal forecasting program, released an updated outlook on this year’s Atlantic season last Thursday. In this outlook, he bumped up his estimate for named storms this year from 16 to 19. (The average number of named storms in the Atlantic, from 1981 through 2010, was 12). Klotzbach also upped his predicted number of hurricanes from 8 to 9. This would be quite an active year if the forecast verifies.

Klotzbach sees worrisome trends in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year, and a transition to weak La Niña conditions by later this summer that would be more conducive to hurricanes forming. “We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” he said.

Seasonal forecasts must always be taken with a grain of salt, and early-season storms do not necessarily foretell a busy overall year in the Atlantic. But given how the rest of 2020 has gone so far, it seems prudent to prepare for an active year in the Gulf of Mexico. This National Weather Service site offers a good place to start for your personal planning for the upcoming season.

Sponsor note

As it’s time to prepare for the months ahead, Reliant wants to help Houstonians. Here are a few reminders to consider: 

• Reliable backup power can help you ride out the storm more comfortably and safely, and Reliant has a wide range of solutions for every family, including:  
  1. Permanently installed backup generators, which automatically kick on in a moment’s notice when your home loses power. These provide peace of mind and ensure your home will stay powered. 
  2. Portable power, on the other hand, can go where you go and conveniently keep you charged and connected. Reliant’s sister company Goal Zero provides award-winning and sustainable portable charging products, which can power everything from phones and fridges to even critical medical devices.
• Be prepared in case of an electricity outage. Your utility company (like CenterPoint or Texas New Mexico Power) maintains the power lines, utility poles and electricity infrastructure necessary to deliver the power you purchase from Reliant to your home. Always notify your utility company during an outage so they can resolve the issue. 
• Create (or update) and practice your family communication plan. Identify a familiar contact who lives outside the area that everyone can call if the family gets separated. Don’t forget to designate an emergency meeting location as well. 

For more preparedness tips and recovery resources, visit reliantstormcenter.com. The site provides resources for before, during and after a storm, including preparedness checklists and evacuation routes, weather and power outage updates, flood maps, safety tips and more.

Storms are a part of life in Texas, so preparedness is critical. We, of course, hope this season will be a quiet one but regardless, Reliant and Space City Weather will be there for you.