How I would Manage Our Team this Offseason

We have an estimated 76m in cap space heading into the offseason. There are 5-6 high profile potential ($10m+ annually) contract extensions, but of those only DJ Reader and Bradley Roby are free agents this offseason.

Deshaun Watson, Laremy Tunsil and Zach Cunningham are under team control next offseason on their original rookie deals and this gives us great flexibility this offseason. It'll be interesting to see who of this group we reward this offseason- they all equally deserve big pay days.

For this first time maybe in our franchises history, it feels like we're fairly deep at every position when healthy with the exception of maybe OLB.

There are some areas we can definitely improve across the roster and here's a projection of how I think our front office should manage our roster and approach free agency/draft this offseason:

​

2020 Free Agent Situation

Bradley Roby– Current Contract: 1yr 10m

– Although he's missed 5 or so games this year, when he's been in he's looked the part of a true #1 corner. Been great in coverage and a good tackler. At 27 he's in his prime and there will be a big market for him across the NFL. I expect us to prioritize resigning him and to make him an offer similar to what Marcus Peters got (3yr 42m), but there is a good chance he will have offers bigger than that. I think we're committed to bringing him back, but the depth we have at corner does not necessarily make him an absolute 'cant lose'. If we get into a bidding war situation, id expect us to pull out if the price gets too high. 55% Texans resign.

Prediction: Resign with Texans on 4yr 55m~ deal with 25m~ guaranteed. Ideally front loaded. Lets say 2020 cap hit 14m.

​

D.J Reader- Current Contact: last year of rookie deal- $2m salary

This is the most important free agent on our team. The four year starter has emerged as one of the best interior D-lineman in the NFL and the cornerstone of our run defense. There will be a lot of interested teams and I expect him to be paid as a top 5 DT. It seems that he's at home in Houston and our front office should prioritize extending him and I'm surprised a deal hasn't been done yet. We should match any offer and even be prepared to overpay if we need to. 90% Texans resign.

Prediction: Resign with Texans on 5yr 80m~ extension with 40m guaranteed. Probably will also be front loaded so lets say appx 17m cap hit.

​

Carlos Hyde- Current Contract- 1yr 1.4m salary

For the first time in his career Hyde played in all 16 games and rushed for over 1000 yards. He fits the Texans system well and was a good reliable player for us all season long. Him and Duke Johnson compliment each other well and I expect the Texans to commit to this duo going forward. RB needy teams may be interested in him, but With Hyde's injury history I don't expect him to get any offers more than 7-8m a year. He seems super happy here and with Lamar Miller's 9m coming off the books I think this will straightforward. 95% Texans resign

Prediction- 3yr 20m contract- with there being no cap hit for us in year 3. 7m cap hit in 2020

​

Johnathan Joseph– curent contract- 1yr 5m

A Texans legend who despite his 14 years in the league is still playing a pretty high level. If he doesn't retire (which I actually don't think he will), I think we bring him back on another team friendly 1 yr deal. He's earned it and is a great mentor for some of our young corners.

Prediction- resigns with texans on 1yr 3.5m deal

​

Darren Fells– Current contract- 1.5m salary

He's had a solid year for us and has caught a lot of touchdown passes. Quality blocker as well. We're pretty deep at tight end between Akins, Thomas and Kahale Warring, but no one in this group of 4 (including Fells) is necessarily an exceptional player. I think we should try and bring Fells back, but I also expect there to be a relatively big market for him as he will be one of the top TE free agents this season. This ones a total coin flip but I'll say 51% texans resign

Prediction- Resigns with Texans on 2yr 12m deal

​

Kaim'i Fairbairn– Last year or rookie deal- 3m salary

Although he struggles earlier this year, I believe Kai'mi has earned an extension and proven he's a good kicker. He's been better the second half of the season, returning to his 2018 form. For whatever reason the NFL is going through a kicking crisis and plenty of teams would love to have a guy like Kai'mi. We should lock him down at a market rate deal above apps 4m a year. 80% chance we resign

Prediction- 3 yr 13m extension with no cap hit in year 3. 4m cap hit in 2020

​

AJ Mccarron– current contract- 1yr 3m

I think he looked good enough on week 17 for us to feel comfortable bringing him back. Sounds like BoB likes him. Maybe another team wants to make a run at him, but expect him to be our backup again next year. Will probably make him one of the higher paid backups in the league. 75% resign

Prediction-2 yr 9m deal with Texans

​

Deandre Carter– 570k salary

– I love him and he's done some really good things for us in the 20ish games he's been on the team, but with Hopkins, Fuller, Stills, Duke Johnson and KeKe Coutee under contract next year it'll be hard for him to see regular playing time at WR. Personally, I would consider shopping KeKe Coutee around the league and playing Carter instead. Could maybe get a 4th or 5th from a WR needy team or could package KeKe in some other trade. He's been a very reliable punt returner for us, but overall I think there's better situations for Carter across the league with more playing time.

Prediction- 2yr 8m deal with another team

​

Jaleel Addae– 900k

The veteran has been a good 3rd safety for us and I feel comfortable with him starting in the playoffs. I would love for him to be back and think that could definitely happen, but I could see him signing to be a starter on another team at solid money. If he plays well in the playoffs I could see us matching offers. I'll say 49% resigning.

Prediction- 2yr 12m deal with another team

​

William Hargreaves is due 10m in the last year of his deal next year, but we can cut him with zero dead money. If we lose Roby I think we might pay it, but I expect us to either cut him or offer him a restructured deal at less money. I like him but don't want to pay 10m a year if we bring back Roby and also Have Conley, Lonnie and JJo.

​

Priority 2021 players:

Deshaun Watson– In good faith to Deshaun, we should pay him this offseason if he doesn't completely suck in the playoffs. He's not a FA until after next season, but he's underpaid drastically right now and he's earned every dollar of what he'll get. His 2 ACL tears add some risk, but I expect him to get more money than Goff. The Texans can wait to extend him, but its inevitable. I say we bite the bullet now and pay him 35-37m a year.

Laremy Tunsil– He's one of the best LT's in football and we gave up a boatload to get him. He's been great and will eventually be the highest paid Olineman in football. The question is whether its this offseason or next year. He's getting 10m on the last year of his 1st round rookie deal next season. I say we wait until next year and retain some cap flexibility for this offseason.

Zach Cunningham- He's the fucking man and has proven himself as one of the best linebackers in football and leaders of the defense. His partner in crime B-Mac is locked up on a solid deal, but Zach is playing on a really low rookie contract making less than 2m each season he's been in the league. We don't have to pay him til next year, but I feel like we really should. It would be pretty slimy at this point not to and for him to risk injury. Depends on how aggressively we want to pursue external FA's this offseason, but I say we extend him this offseason at something like 4yr 50m

Will Fuller– He's on a team option 10m deal next year and his future purely depends on his health and caliber of play. If he balls out next offseason we'll most likely try and resign him but his asking price could be too high. He's very important to our offense and is certainly a monster when healthy, but its a total coin flip if he's on our team after next year. Wont be seeing an extension until 2021 if ever.

​

External Free Agent approach:

Unless we extend everyone above besides Fuller, we'll have some cap space to play around with on free agents. If we don't sign Watson, Tunsil and Cunningham we'll have a lot to play with. Overall I think we should prioritize our current guys, but try and improve our roster in a few strategic areas through free agency. Maybe make one big signing at 8-12m a year or a few mid-sized ones on top of regular depth signings. Areas I would target would be: OLB, DE, Tackle, Safety.

We locked down Whitney (imo we overpaid by a lot) Omenihu and Jacob Martin have had some promise, but overall our lack of pass rush talent outside of Watt is the biggest glaring weakness for our current roster imo. Our DE depth is also low and we could certainly look to get a better player opposite Watt as well. These would be the areas I would consider making bigger FA offers too (8-12m a year type).

We could improve on our guard depth and if we don't extend Fells could also target another veteran TE. Wouldn't expect us to make more than 1 signing over 5m a year though this offseason to an external FA if any.

​

Draft Approach:

With expected 3rd and 4th round compensatory picks, we actually have a good amount of draft capital this offseason. Overall we're expected to have 2, 3,3,4,4,5,7,7. Of course what we do in the draft will depend a lot on what happens in FA, but We can add a ton of value to our team with these picks and I'd want us to target these areas:

– Safety– Justin Reid is great, but I'm not convinced Gipson will be able to stay healthy and idk if Addae will be on team. Would be smart of us to get another talented young safety in the pipeline with 2nd or 3rd round pick.

– Pass Rush OLB/DE Depth- regardless if we sign an OLB/DE or not in FA, we need to get better here. I'd want to draft 2 or 3 guys in the 2-5th rounds here.

–Guard/Tackle– Our line is in good shape, but would be smart to get more depth and look to draft Fultons 2021 RG replacement. Tunsil and Howard should be great tackle duo next season, but I'm done with Chris Clark. Rod Johnson is also a FA and no idea if we'll bring him back or not. Regardless of what happens with Rod we should draft another tackle

Offensive Playmaker: Whether it be a sneaky white slot WR, track speedster or all purpose former QB, I'd like to see us try and draft a guy who will fit in well with Watson that will add another wrinkle to our offense. We have some speedy guys on our offense, but as KC shows you can never have too much explosiveness on the field.

Corner– The one lesson the NFL has learned in recent years is that you can NEVER have too many quality CBs. Every year regardless of depth, we should be drafting a CB we like in the mid rounds.