How Could Hurricane Melissa Get So Strong So Late in the Season?
11/2/25 – Hurricane Melissa disappeared off the tracking charts yesterday. And when it did, one of the most powerful storms in recorded history went into the history books.
Many things made Melissa unusual and stunned meteorologists. They included the storm’s deep pressure, high winds, rapid intensification, death toll, destruction, and its timing within the hurricane season.
And all of that happened in a season that has, so far, spared the U.S. mainland from any landfalling hurricanes.
A Normal Season
Usually, the Atlantic Hurricane season is largely over by the end of October.
But this season was different.
This Season
Melissa was the 13th named storm of the season.
In May this year, NOAA predicted an above average season with 13-19 named storms, of which 6-10 would become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes.
So far, we’ve had 13 named storms. Five became hurricanes, four of which reached major hurricane strength. See below.
Why So Strong, So Late?
First, we had very warm waters in the Caribbean – 1.9ºC to 2.8ºC above average for the region and season. That’s up to 5º F warmer than average.
More importantly: the warm layer extended to depth — meaning the storm could churn up deeper water without encountering cooler up-welled water that normally weakens storms.
Second, reduced wind sheer and steering currents caused it to meander slowly. This helped it sit over very warm waters while enhancing its strength.
Melissa underwent two rounds of rapid intensification, including a gain of ~70 mph in 24 hours — an “extreme rapid intensification” event. Because water was abnormally warm for that late in the season, and other inhibiting factors were low, the conditions aligned for a major hurricane even though the calendar was later.
Sea surface temperatures ordinarily decline and atmospheric conditions become less favorable this late in the season. But not this year. So, Melissa could reach peak strength even in late October. Some scientists hypothesize that climate change may have played a role. Others believe it was just the random confluence of favorable factors.
Warm water is necessary but not sufficient to create a major hurricane. In this case, the atmosphere cooperated, which is part of why Melissa could intensify so late and so rapidly.
Typically by late October, conditions become less favorable for hurricane formation (cooler oceans, increasing shear, etc.).
One For the Record Books
One study estimated that the extra warming of the ocean helped boost Melissa’s maximum wind speed by about 10 mph and increased its damage potential by ~50%.
ABC News reported that at least two hurricane-hunter aircraft had to turn back from Hurricane Melissa due to extreme turbulence: one from the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and another from NOAA.
Melissa made landfall in Jamaica with sustained winds of 185 mph, tying it for the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall by wind speed. (Wikipedia+4AP News+4CBS News+4).
A scientist from the University of Miami onboard the Hurricane Hunter recorded a spot wind gust of 252 MPH. If verified, it will be the highest speed ever recorded in a tropical cyclone by a dropsonde. That rivals winds in EF5 tornadoes!
Melissa also recorded a central pressure of 892 mb, tying the record for third‐lowest minimum central pressure in the Atlantic basin. (CT Insider+1).
So far, Melissa is the strongest tropical cyclone of any kind worldwide in 2025.
USA Today reported today that the storm left more than 60 people dead in Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/25
2987 Days since Harvey
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