Guadalupe Flood Tragedy: How Could It NOT Happen?

8/10/25 – A reader asked me, “How could the July 4 Guadalupe flood tragedy happen?”

He sent me an article that quoted an associate professor from Syracuse University who studied FEMA’s flood maps. The professor said that people knew Camp Mystic buildings were in the 100-year floodplain. Then she said, “It’s a mystery to me why they weren’t taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk…”

The good professor obviously doesn’t live in Texas. In the endless news coverage of the tragedy, some little known statistics have gone undiscussed. They put the Guadalupe tragedy in a larger context.

We also have 6,258 hospitals, emergency medical services, fire stations, police stations and schools in 1% annual chance floodplains. Camp Mystic is hardly alone.

One in Five Texans Lives in a Floodplain

The Texas State Flood Plan shows that 5,884,100 people live in Texas floodplains (100- and 500-year). The last full census shows that 29,145,505 people live in Texas. That means 20% of the state’s population lives in a floodplain. One in five people!

To put that number in perspective:

More people live in Texas floodplains than live in 30 states.

According to 2020 US Census

And 5,884,100 is more people than live in any American city except New York City. Not even Los Angeles or Chicago has more residents than Texas floodplains.

Only 2% of the people living in the Guadalupe River Basin live in floodplains. But 42% of all the people living in the San Jacinto watershed live in a floodplain.

And don’t forget, those numbers are all based on pre-Atlas 14 maps. Reportedly, Atlas-14 maps will show floodplains growing 50-100%. And Atlas-15 maps are already in the works. So, the numbers above understate the real dimensions of the problem.

In my opinion, the real question is not “How could the tragedy happen?” It’s “How could it NOT happen?”

Still, the professor raises a valid question.

Problems Don’t Get This Big By Accident

Why do so many Texans live in floodplains? A combination of things has created this perfect storm. Since starting this blog, I’ve written 2,876 articles about flooding. And I see certain recurrent themes:

• Texans like to live near water. In fact, we pay a premium for homes near flood sources.
• We idolize risk takers. It’s part of our DNA, our ethos, and our heritage.
• Texans value independence. No one tells a Texan how to live. Or where not to live.
• We fight all the way to the Supreme Court for the right to build in floodplains.
• Property rights rule in Texas. People do with their land what they damn well please.
• The state’s population has doubled since 1980, but many areas are still using flood maps from the same era.
• Rapid growth has created higher flood peaks that rise faster due to faster runoff upstream that’s insufficiently mitigated.
• Areas eager to grow use lax enforcement to attract developers.
• Some just don’t adopt adequate regulations or they leave loopholes that raise flood risk.
• Collectively, we have a bad case of willful blindness. Regulations don’t keep pace with reality. For instance, Montgomery County still hasn’t adopted updated drainage regulations which have been on the table for years.
• Giving tax breaks to sand-mining companies that reduce the conveyance of rivers.
• People make bad home building and home buying decisions because of antiquated flood maps.
• Flooding happens just infrequently enough that when something goes wrong, people can blame it on climate change or God.

Not all of these may apply to the Guadalupe river basin. But I’ve documented them multiple times in the San Jacinto basin. They form a starting point for investigation into the Guadalupe tragedy.

A Problem Too Big To Solve

At this point, in my opinion, the State’s flooding problem is too big to solve. The state flood plan comes with a $54 billion price tag. But we don’t have a dedicated source of funding to address the problems in it.

Worse, collectively we:

• Keep kicking the can down the road by making endless plans to solve flooding, but rarely implementing them.
• Wait until people forget and move on with their lives, then lose a sense of urgency.
• Are united in disasters, but divided by recovery. When we do tax ourselves to address flooding, people battle each other to have their flooding fixed first.

Don’t assume others will protect you. Protect yourself. Start by demanding accurate estimates of risk that we paid for a long time ago. That would at least make people aware of the flood risk they truly face. Then they can decide whether to take that risk.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/2025

2903 Days since Hurricane Harvey

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