First Preseason Games tell you nothing about a QB
I spent a lot of time on this, so I'm cross posting from r/NFL.
I see a lot of post by Armchair QB Coaches about how they can tell that a QB will be a bust by their first preseason start. Let's go ahead and look back on the last 11 Super Bowl Winning QBs and how their first looks. (Would do more, but Payton and Tom were hard enough from the late 90's, Trent Dillfer and Brad Johnson from the early 90's is rough).
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs 2022 & 2019
First Game Aug 12th 2017 SF @ KC, 1st Preseason Game of Rookie Year
7 of 9 for 49 yards, 13 Plays, 3 Drives, 3 First Downs, a FG, a TD and a Punt. Didn't come in until 2nd half, his first 2 First Downs came from penalties. His first TD Drive started on his opponents 8 after a blocked punt. Only one completed pass over 10 yards, a 16 yarder. Taken out after his 3rd drive.
- Matthew Stafford, Rams 2021
First Game August 15th 2009 ATL @ DET, 1st Preseason Game Rookie Year
7 of 14 for 114 yards, 5 yards rushing, 21 Plays, 4 Drives, 6 First Downs, 2 Punts, 1 Pick Six, 1 TD. Came in just before the 2-minute warning in the first half. Ran 2 drives that both ended in punts. Threw a pick six his first throw of the second half. The next drive he takes the Lions 80 yards for a TD with 3 20+ yards throws. Longest completed pass, the 25 yard TD. Taken out after his 4th drive.
- Tom Brady, Tampa 2020, Patriots 2018, 2016, 2014, 2004, 2003, 2001
First Game July 31st 2000 NE vs SF HOF Game, 1st Preseason Game Rookie Year
3 of 4 for 28 yards, he came in the 4th quarter, it was one drive and 2 First Downs. Honestly can't find out much else. (It's a preseason game)
- Nick Foles, Eagles 2017
First Game August 10th 2012 PIT @ PHI, 1st Preseason Game
5 of 9 for 144 yards, 14 Plays, 5 Drives, 1 First Down, 3 Punts, 2 TDs. 3 completions over 10+ yards, including both a 70 yard and 44 yard TD. He came in at the start of the 2nd Half. I maybe biased, since I dated his sister right around this time, but based on this preseason performance he will be the greatest QB ever.
- Payton Manning, Broncos 2015, Colts 2006
First Game August 8th 1998 IND @ SEA, 1st Preseason Game
8 of 15 for 115 yards and at least 1 48 yard TD, he played the whole 1st half. Can't find much more info for the game. Once again, it's only preseason.
- Russel Wilson, Seahawks 2013
First Game August 11th 2012 TEN @ SEA, 1st Preseason Game
9 of 13 for 99 yards, 23 Rushing on 1 attempt, 19 Plays, 3 Drives, 4 First Downs, 1 TD, 2 Punt. He entered at the start of the 2nd half, and left after 3 Drives.
- Joe Flacco, Ravens 2012
First Game August 7th 2008 BAL @ NE, 1st Preseason Game
0 of 3, 2 Sacks, 1 Fumble, -6 Yards Rushing. Sometimes a Super Bowl Winning QB doesn't even complete a pass on their first preseason game.
- Eli Manning, Giants 2011 & 2007
First Game August 13th 2004 NYG vs KC, 1st Preseason Game
7 of 13 for 91 Yards, 2 Sacks, -16 Yards Rushing. Longest Throw 24 Yards. He came in at the start of the second half. Fitting that Eli gets his first taste of Pro Football on Friday the 13th.
- Aaron Rodgers, Packers 2010
First Game August 11th 2005 SD @ GB, 1st Preseason Game
2 of 6 for 7 yards, 2 Sacks, -5 Yards Rushing. Longest Throw 6 Yards. Not much else.
- Drew Brees, Saints 2009
First Game August 11th 2001 SD vs SF, 1st Preseason Game
1 Drive, 1 TD and Sat Backdown. All I can find.
- Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers 2008 & 2005
First Game August 14th 2004 PIT @ DET, 1st Preseason Game
8 of 13 for 84 yards, 1 TD, 4 Drives, Longest Throw 15 yards. He was in the game during the 2nd Quarter, but did not start.
TLDR; A QB's 1st Preseason Game predicts absolutely nothing about how they will perform and develop. If it did, Nick Foles would be the greatest SB QB and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco would have been run out of the league before the season even began.
If you want, I'll make a post tomorrow about preseason game 2 and game 3, but I doubt they will be that illuminating, it's preseason.
Side note: Nick Foles and Drew Brees are both from Austin, Texas and played for Westlake High. If you get a QB who played at Westlake High and they score a TD in their first preseason game, they might win a Superbowl. And this is totally not coming from an Austin native.
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