Examining injury risk to offensive weapons in 2020 vs Hopkins

Pro Football Logic estimated injury risk to players using data from the 2015 season. Using their table, Hopkins would have approximately a 4.5% chance of missing games in a given season. Since he plays in every offensive snap and has such a high volume of targets, (gets hit more than average) we should assume that probability would be much higher.

As Hopkins’ contract negotiations are underway, getting 25 million in 2020 is not out of the question.

For 25 million in 2020 the Texans added David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, and Randall Cobb.

Using Pro Football Logic’s table, the odds of all three players getting hurt is:
(0.052) * (0.045) * (0.045) = 0.0001053 OR .01053%

So there is a 0.01053% that all three players are hurt vs. the 4.5% that D-hop gets hurt.

“But their injury history”

OK let's double the chance of injury:

(0.104) * (0.09) * (0.09) = 0.0008424 OR 0.08424%

Injury risk table: https://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-injury-rate-analysis/

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They also have a great article about injuries they posted in 2019. Check out the section titled: "How Team Construction Can Affect Injury Impact"

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TLDR it's better to have a deep team, than a top heavy one.

article: http://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-injury-point-value/