Despite the Gulf disturbance, we’re nearing the rain’s end

Good morning, Houston. The radar is quiet as the sun begins to rise, but it’s not expected to remain so. We still anticipate a pair of rainy, but not menacing days, before we finally move beyond the persistent threat of rain on Sunday. The Atlantic tropics are also starting to heat up, but again, we don’t see any really significant threat from this. More on the tropics below.

Friday

I’ve had so many questions from readers about the weather for this Friday and Saturday that I know many of you have outdoor activities planned for this weekend. So for those of you with birthday celebrations, graduations, and weddings, I am sorry. The news is not great. It’s gonna rain.

Showers should remain rather scattered this morning, before becoming more widespread this afternoon. We may also see a few stronger thunderstorms that produce some briefly heavy rain. However, these showers should scoot through the area, from southeast to northwest, at a pretty good clip, helping to limit accumulations. Totals for most people today should be on the order of 0.5 inch, with some areas seeing more, some less. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees, with plenty of humidity, and skies will of course be mostly cloudy. Rain chances back off during the evening and overnight hours, with lows only dropping to around 70 degrees.

Saturday

We’re not sure when the bulk of the precipitation is going to come on Saturday, whether its largely during the overnight hours into the morning, or whether it’s more of a midday or afternoon thing. What we can generally say is that most areas will probably see about 1 inch of rain, give or take, and the better chances for heavier rainfall will lie west of Interstate 45. The bottom line is that while this rain will put a damper on outdoor activities during the daytime, I think things should begin to clear out during the evening and overnight hours. Highs will again be around 80 degrees.

Sunday

We can’t rule out some light showers again on Sunday, but I think these will primarily occur west of Interstate 45 and should be fleeting. Skies will start out cloudy, but we may see a few flecks of sunshine before the day ends. Highs will again reach about 80 degrees.

Next week

Rain chances won’t be zero next week, but they’ll be in the 20 percent range for most days, with overall very low accumulations. Highs will climb into the mid, and probably upper 80s as skies turn from partly to mostly sunny by mid-week. We might reach the 90s by next weekend.

Tropics

So what’s going on in the tropics? I want to talk about three things. First of all, not much has changed with the Gulf of Mexico disturbance overnight. It’s still there, it’s still disorganized, but it still has a narrow window to develop into a tropical depression as it moves toward the Texas coast. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 40 percent chance of becoming a depression before moving into Texas tonight. Even so, we don’t think it will change our forecast much. If that changes, we will of course update later today.

Another system in the open Atlantic is more likely to become a subtropical storm over the next day or two. This one won’t affect land, but would gain the name “Ana,” and become the Atlantic season’s first named storm even though the season doesn’t begin until June 1. A weak storm forming before the official beginning of hurricane season happens fairly regularly, so it’s nothing to get alarmed about.

Finally, NOAA released its Atlantic hurricane outlook on Thursday, and it calls for an “above normal” hurricane season, with 13 to 20 named storms. This is in line with other season predictions, and I just want to reiterate what we wrote in April about all of this.

Seasonal hurricane forecasts are far from perfect. I think, generally, we can expect a busier Atlantic season, but we’re almost certainly not going to see a brute of a year like 2020. Moreover, the chance of the Houston area being directly affected by serious tropical weather (in terms of floods, winds, or surge) is pretty low. Historically, the region only sees a significant storm about once a decade or so. Therefore, while it certainly is time to begin planning for the 2021 Atlantic season, I very much do not want you to start worrying or obsessing about it. Matt and I will, of course, be here every step of the way.

We’ll be back with another post this evening, or Saturday morning, to wrap up the Gulf disturbance situation, and our expectations for rainfall on Sunday.