Corey Julks metrics since the start of June has been a 145 wRC+.

I have been keeping a close eye on our guys advanced metrics throughout the season. As others have noted before this turnaround, I have often ragged on Julks playing so much.

Or at least I hated how much Julks played so much over Chas in LF (Again should never have been a contest between the 2 since Chas should be in CF) or how much Julks has played at DH over Yainer.

Time to give the kid credit where it's due to how much he's stepped up.

Before June 1st:

  • 84 wRC+ with a slashline of .268/.286/.387/.673 while also being one of the luckiest players in the league according to xwOBA. He was bottom 3 or something in xwOBA.

He had a K rate of 27.9% and BB 2.7% which is atrocious

Since June 1st:

  • 145 wRC+ with a slashline of .319/.396/.468/.864.

I can't do splits to find out his xwOBA since then (not sure if you can), but looking at his rolling xwOBA numbers since June 18th, he's been making actually good contact.

It's been around the .350 xwOBA range and steadily rising over the last several games.

The most encouraging thing is his approach at the plate. 19.8 K% and 11.3 BB%.

Now I do want people to note that he has also been having a lot of BABIP luck in June with .360 BABIP. But I think that was mainly in the first half of June where his stats did bump up but only while making weak contact. That weak contact and lucky BABIP was why I was low on him early on, but he's now making legitimately good contact.

Things to keep track of

What I wish I could see would be his rolling metrics vs certain pitch types since June.

On the season Julks has been pretty good vs FBs with an xwOBA of .364.

Vs Breaking stuff he's been atrocious with an xwOBA of .218. Vs Offspeed he's had an xwOBA of .249.

Not sure exactly how much better he has been vs those pitches though so feel free to chime in

Summary

I am still not sure what the future holds for him, but his overall profile looks pretty encouraging. I just need to see if he's made true improvements vs breaking stuff and offspeed pitches before being high on him as a prospect.

I do also need to see how he settles once his BABIP regresses which it will. For the season it's been .360 BABIP but remember like I mentioned before. Before June 16th or whatever, he was very lucky with weak contacts ending up as hits. But since then he's been making legitimately good contact consistently

If he turns out to be good overall, he fits our mold of prospects who succeed. A boring prospect at the time of call up.

submitted by /u/The_New_New
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