Breaking down Astros potential picks for the MLB Draft on July 9th, as well as Dana Brown’s drafting philosophy

Kiley McDaniel had this to say about the Astros with the 28th overall pick:

Walker Martin, SS, Eaton HS (Colorado)
“The Astros have been tied to Martin, Stafura and North Carolina 3B Mac Horvath (likely available at their next pick). Martin and Stafura are risky upside types who've seen a variety of takes on their ability, so pairing that pick with a 22-year-old proven college performer in Horvath matches well with the Astros' plan.”

The Stafura mentioned would be Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas HS (New York), whom he had going to the Yankees at pick 26, and has been heavily linked to the Yankees.

McDaniel had a similar sentiment in his first mock draft a month ago, also with the Astros selecting Martin. Here is his blurb from that article:

“That said, I've heard that the Astros are the other likely spot for Martin if the Giants pass on him. Martin is one of my favorite upside-types in this deep prep hitter class, and after getting two of my top values in Drew Gilbert and Jacob Melton in last year's draft, this would be a nice fit for the Astros. They're also one of the higher teams on UNC third baseman Mac Horvath, though he likely will go in the second round.”

Here’s what Keith Law of the Athletic has to say about the Astros in his first mock draft:

Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State
“They took a college outfielder last year, Drew Gilbert, who’s off to a great (if park-inflated) start to his pro career this spring. They’re also heavy on Stafura.”

So a reinforcing of the Stafura rumors as well as a new name in Ledbetter. Ledbetter spent the early portion of his college career dominating at Samford with a 1.047 OPS in 2022, and followed it up with a 1.025 OPS with Mississippi State this year.

In his second MLB mock draft, Law has the Astros taking:

Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
“Waldrep’s got one of the best pitches in the draft in his splitter, but he hasn’t had the results to match, so he’s clearly sliding. I’ve heard the Astros are hoping Eldridge gets to them.”

I’m not so sure about this one. My gut feel is that Waldrep goes before 28th in this draft. He was having an excellent tournament (21 IP with only 2 ER across 3 starts), before getting smacked around a little by LSU (2.1 IP with 3 ER). Regardless, I don’t think a prospect of his caliber will slide to the end of the 1st round, but anything can happen.

Among other names I have seen floating around is Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami. The college bat has been destroying baseballs, improving his 1.061 OPS in 2022 to a 1.187 mark in 2023. He has above-average power to all fields and should be able to stick to 3B defensively.

The other important aspect of what the Astros may do lies in management. It’s no longer Click or Luhnow at the helm, but first year GM Dana Brown. Brown cut his teeth as a draft guy for the Braves, and has stated “there’s no excuses. I cannot blow the draft.” I truly believe he will stick to the draft philosophy he had in Atlanta which got him to this point.

But what is that philosophy? Dana Brown was the VP of scouting from 2019 to 2022, so those are the four drafts I want to focus on, but he very may well have been shaping the previous ones as well.

2019 Draft:
(Round.Overall)
1.09 – Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor ( 4YR JR)
1.21 – Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M (4YR JR)
3.98 – Michael Harris II, OF, Stockbridge GA (HS)

2020 MLB Draft:
1.25 – Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest, (4YR JR) 3.97 – Jesse Franklin V, OF, Michigan (4YR JR) As a note, Spencer Strider was selected in the 4th round of this draft out of Clemson

2021 MLB Draft:
1.24 – Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest (4YR JR)
2.59 – Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Nebraska (4YR JR)
3.96 – Dylan Dodd, RHP, Southeast Missouri St (4YR 5S)

2022 MLB Draft:
1.20 – Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside Brookfield IL (HS)
1.35 – JR Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge WA (HS)
2.57 – Cole Phillips, RHP, Boerne TX (HS)
3.76 – Blake Burkhaler, RHP, Auburn (4YR JR) 3.96 – Drake Baldwin, C, Missouri St (4YR JR)

So his four first round picks were a college catcher, two college arms and a high school arm. Overall, in his first three rounds the split has been:
5 college arms
4 college bats
3 prep arms
1 prep bat

So a pretty decent spread. But it does make me a little bit wary to see us projected to take a prep bat in either Martin or Stafura, Brown has taken only one such player in the top 3 rounds in any of his drafts. And that was Michael Harris II in the 3rd round in 2019. The more likely option may be a college bat like those rumored in Ledbetter or Morales.

Then again, Brown has shown the ability to pivot. In drafts 2019-2021, he had never taken a prep arm higher than the 7th round (AJ Smith-Shawver in 2021). And then in 2022 takes high school pitchers with each of his three picks in the first two rounds. So there’s no ruling out a pivot towards high school position players either.

Listening to a pre- 2020 draft interview with Brown, he mentions that he thinks the strength of the draft is college players that year, while then saying that some years it may be high school players. The Braves would go on to select college players with all four of their selections that year.

Going back to what Keith Law mentioned in the opening paragraphs of his article:
“This year’s group has a ton of quality college position players, a group of high school position players that isn’t very far behind, and enough college arms to keep the first round interesting, although it’s very light on southpaws and behind the plate.”

Which brings us back to college bats, and then high school bats.

It will be very interesting to see what path Brown takes in his first Astros draft. Hopefully his history of successful drafting will continue.