First in the the undefinable: I sincerely believe the Braves were going to be undefeatable last night: Their first home World Series game in 20+ years, fans going nuts the entire time, using their last remaining true starter (more of that to come) puts them in a position that if they don’t win that one they knew they were going to be in big doo-doo. Similarly, Garcia had an excellent outing which leads me to believe he could be useful out of the pen moving forward if he is needed.
Last night was obviously a strong performance by Andersen. To get in front of the our fans that are going to emphasize we chased at more balls than need to, this is simply indicative of a strong performance and good stuff. His stuff was moving (as was the strikezone).
Our boys had zero chance to practice or take BP on the field. This obviously favors the Braves. Especially with our OF all playing in different spots than their norm. (Though KFT amirite?) Factor in the weather in an unfamiliar ballpark and I think it’s another advantage for the Braves. Weather tonight looks substantially better- warmer and slightly less chance of rain. Sunday looks perfect for a Framber game vs yet another BP game for the Braves (who will hopefully further depleted after tonight)
Bad calls on both sides, so that seems to be a ‘push’, though my bias does tell me it hurt the Astros a bit more despite ump scorecards since I don’t give much stock to their ‘runs favored’ metric for a few reason.
Their first run was a mere inch or two from Bregman’s glove, if he knocks that down it saves a run. Their second was one single mistake to a hot hitter from Graveman who has otherwise been lights out in the postseason.
Lastly, if you believe in math then we have to believe the regression to the mean of our hitters will lead to better contact against their lessor bullpen. If even just two of Altuve, Bregs, Brantley, and Yordan get it going we can push runs across- Dusty has said he prefers national league managing- this post has given me nothing but more confidence in him. The good news is that we are working walks, giving us opportunity.
An aside: I can’t find it currently, but I would imagine our BABIP was a dip lower than average- especially in key situations (not sure how you quantify that). Though that is just conjecture.
Lastly, I believe we see at least somewhat vintage Zach today. Granted its very unlikely he goes through the lineup more than once but that could mean a solid 3 innings if all goes well. Backed up by Odorizzi for an inning or too then El Reptilo for one or two then I’d have to believe Stanek and Raley are ready as is Pressly- possibly even Graveman though 20+ pitches is a bit much for two days in a row.
Finally, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, our bullpen has inspired a lot of confidence in me recently (furiously knocking on wood). If we can keep that up and actually get bats going we’ll be good.
Game 5 would mean a Framber start and yet another BP day for Atlanta- we knock out at least one or two of their ‘starter’s or relievers early, we are going to set ourselves up for Game 5 very well. We’ll obviously have cross that bridge when we get there but game 6 is shaping up good now with Framchise slated to be on the hill- not sure who they would throw then.
TL;DR- Braves weren’t going to lose that game and despite being no-hit until the 8th we made it a ball game. Our bats return to their normal selves, bullpen keeps its hot streak alive and we take the next two and finish in Houston in 6.
