Author: /u/StevenJeon

Today’s statline: 1-3, RBI, 2 K

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At bat 1 (Bottom of first): 6 pitch sac fly to left, RBI

Facing Sale with runners on early, Yordan didn’t start the at bat off ideally, as he fouled off and watched Sale fastballs that were both in the zone to put himself down 0-2 early. Instead of folding over and settling for a lazy passive strikeout looking or grounding into weak contact, Yordan clutched up, taking three straight borderline pitches out of the zone to work from 0-2 to a full count. I was most impressed by the last pitch he took, a really close outside fastball that easily could have been a swinging strikeout or strike looking, kudos to both Yordan and the ump for getting this call right. On a 3-2 Sale threw yet another fastball, and Yordan pounced on it, driving it high and deep to left field, easily scoring Altuve for a sac fly for the first runs of the game. A great job here by him to take what Sale was giving him (fastballs high in the zone) and work the count with hood eue until he found one he could do damage on.

At bat 2 (Bottom of third): 1 pitch single to left

After throwing Yordan exclusively fastballs in the previous at bat, Sale thought he could be sneaky and throw Yordan a first pitch slider outside to begin this at bat. Despite it being a tad bit out of the zone, Yordan pounced on it, and although he was slightly late with his swing, he simply muscled it over the head of the infielders and into very shallow left field for an easy single. While it wasn’t pretty to watch, it still kept the line moving and ultimately was a winning play. He wouldn’t score though unfortunately, as although he advanced to second on a Correa single, Tucker and Gurriel grounded out to end the inning.

At bat 3 (Bottom of fifth): 4 pitch strikeout swinging

Full disclosure, I was too busy spamming “HOES MAD” in the Astros discord and didn’t get to see the entirety of the at bat, but it doesn’t look like I missed much of importance. Facing new reliever Ryan Brasier, who I pinpointed as a really tough matchup for Yordan, he started the at bat with a slider in the dirt for a ball before fouling off a fastball in a similar spot. That was all the positive in the at bat, however, as watched a slider right down the middle for a passive take before whiffing badly at a fastball right down the middle for the second out of the inning. A disappointing at bat in a situation where the Astros badly needed a couple runs. Hopefully he should come up one more time in the later innings.

At bat 4 (Bottom of seventh): 5 pitch strikeout swinging

Now in a tie game with no one on and facing Hansel Robles, I expected Yordan to have a pretty good time against the mediocre reliever, and through 4 pitches it certainly looked that way, with Yordan working into a 2-2 count and having a very good idea of how to hit Robles’ fastball (although he looked a bit off on the changeup). Robles certainly noticed that as well and took advantage of it by throwing a high fastball up in the zone when Yordan was clearly expecting a fastball, leading to an extremely delayed swing and miss. Thankfully Correa would hit a huge home run to lead the Astros to the game 1 win, good to see him put the team on his back and come up huge when it mattered.

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Too lazy to do a pitch data today, but overall it does feel like Yordan struggled vs the offspeed pitches from Boston’s relievers. Against both Brasier and Robles it looked like he clearly saw the fastballs well but struggled against Brasier’s slider and Robles’ changeup, that definitely could use some work and will likely get better as the series progresses. Overall I was impressed by his work early, and while the overall line may look unimpressive it was definitely more of a team effort, which is good to see. All in all a huge game 1 win for Yordan and the Astros despite not playing their best ball (except the bullpen, wow), hopefully they secure the game 2 lead to take commanding control of the series.

As expected, Yordan and the Astros took care of business in the first round, demolishing the White Sox in a 4 game series (that should have been a clean sweep had the umpires done their job). They’ll move on to face the Red Sox in the ALDS after they surprisingly beat the 1 seeded Rays in 4 in the first round. Like the Division Series preview, I’ll start by listing all of Boston’s starting pitchers and Yordan’s matchup against them, before transitioning into a more quick section on the relievers, as well as some final thoughts and key things to look out for in the series.

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Starters:

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Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi, Boston’s ace this season and the likely game 2 starter, is a pretty interesting player to analyze as a Yordan matchup. He throws an extremely good fastball and has pinpoint accuracy (at least this season) and he strikes out enough people so that his underlying metrics look good as well. That being said, Eovaldi isn’t perfect, and as the Rays and Red Sox showed in the postseason, while his command is good his fastball lacks spin, leading to a lot of dingers when he’s hit. Yordan’s strategy here should be to get a hittable fastball in his sweet spots (low and inside or high and middle middle) and put a good hard swing into it. Unlike most righties, Eovaldi likes to throw his offspeed slider and curve low and outside, meaning that if Yordan goes fishing it will likely be a pretty bad game.

Chris Sale

Every team has that one lefty with a great fastball and electric secondaries, and for the Red Sox, Chris Sale is that guy. At this point in time we’re all aware of what Sale is: an elite strikeout pitcher who sometimes deals with command issues and gives up some loud contact but dominates enough to overcome his issues. The Astros have seen Sale plenty of times in both the regular season and playoffs, and in general they’ve done quite well against him, beating him twice in the 2017 ALDS and forcing him out early with command issues in the 2018 ALCS. Yordan’s matchup here will come down to how well he controls the zone early in the count, especially vs Sale’s bread and butter outside fastball to lefties. If Yordan goes fishing and swings at some bad fastballs out of the zone, he’ll have no chance of connecting vs the junk outside trying to protect the zone, but if he works into a good count and forces Sale to throw either a bad fastball or a slider low and away inside to Yordan, that s**t is going to be crushed.

Eduardo Rodriguez

After years of being a good to great pitcher, Rodriguez had a pretty mediocre year in 2021, regressing to what I’d call merely an ok pitcher who gets by. His fastball isn’t really that intimidating and he doesn’t really strike out many guys, so I wouldn’t be too worried in a potential matchup. He manages to get outs by working the zone and finessing strikes with a variety of different pitches, so this will definitely be a mind game that Yordan has to navigate through. I would personally pinpoint E-Rod’s cutter as a point of weakness, he throws it almost 20% of the time but it’s mostly inside and high, which Yordan should easily be able to pull for a double down the line. Yordan needs to be aggressive vs Rodriguez early, as unlike the other Boston pitchers he works the zone well and throws quite a bit of hittable pitches, especially fastballs, in the zone early in the count.

Nick Pivetta

We got a very good look at what a locked in Pivetta can do in ALDS game 3, as he came out of the bullpen and pitched extremely effectively vs the Rays, securing a much needed win. However, while this one game may look really intimidating in a vacuum, in the season as a whole I’m not particularly scared of Pivetta. A quick glance at his Baseball Savant page reveals that he walks quite a bit of guys, allows a bunch of hard contact, doesn’t strike out many guys, and has multiple offspeed pitches he likes to throw right in Yordan’s sweet spots. Considering how good his prior start was I think he’s due for some major regression, and I think Yordan will definitely either do damage against his extremely hittable fastball or work a good walk to keep the line moving against him.

Martin Perez

Perez, one of 4 lefties the Red Sox might use in the ALCS roster, is also probably a very good matchup against Yordan, as he doesn’t do anything particularly well except for limit walks. He gives up a lot of good contact, doesn’t throw an intimidating curve or fastball, and has terrible underlying metrics, so I wouldn’t be concerned at all if Yordan faced him. This year was his worst by far in terms of hard hit %, and considering his two most used pitches are a cutter and a sinker, both primarily used to pound the zone, I would be extremely thankful if Yordan got to face him. Like Eduardo Rodriguez, Yordan should be extremely aggressive early verses the hittable fastballs, and he could definitely do a lot of damage on them, especially with runners on.

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Relievers

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Tanner Houck

After a super impressive 2020 season where he had an ERA well under 1 in the shortened season, Houck was good, but not as good as before, in 2021. His underlying metrics were fantastic and he should be an issue vs the Astros, particularly against the righties, but it does look like he throws pretty straight fastballs (19th percentile spin) that get hard often (48th percentile barrel rate). It is important to not that Houck throws his slider actually about as much as his fastball, so while I don’t like the matchup Yordan should definitely at least have a chance if he works the count well early.

Matt Barnes

Barnes is one of the funnier pitchers to analyze against Yordan because of his very conflicting skills. On one hand his fastball is great and his chase rate is amazing, but his secondaries are pretty mediocre sometimes and he gives up an unimaginably high amount of contact for someone who is supposed to be the closer. His expected metrics are indeed really good so he is able to limit the damage, but that fastball is straight and will be hit far. It’s extremely important that Yordan sit on a fastball here and not swing at Barnes’ curve, which he uses often and usually is way out of the zone.

Ryan Brasier

Not sure how he would fare vs Yordan due to his limited sample size in 2021, but similar to Barnes, it looks like he’s a two pitch pitcher who struggles with walks but has a really good fastball. Yordan should probably approach him like he does Barnes.

Adam Ottavino

A Yankee reject who turned into a valuable bullpen arm for Boston, Ottavino functions as the yin to Eduardo Rodriguez’s yang. Possessing both an electric fastball and curve, Ottavino is great at striking guys out and preventing hard contact, but he has terrible command, as his chase rate (6th percentile) and walk rate (7th percentile) are both well below a pitcher with his other metrics. The Astros got a good look at Ottavino in the 2019 ALCS and did quite well (especially in game 2) by being aggressive on fastballs in the zone but otherwise allowing him to walk into trouble, and that’s how Yordan should approach this matchup.

Hansel Robles

He throws hard and has a good fastball but like Ottavino walks too many guys and often creates his own messes. Like Ottavino, Yordan should be really aggressive on hittable fastballs but lay off on everything else and not settle for swinging at a bad pitch low and away.

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I would like to apologize if the quality of this preview isn’t as good as the ALDS one, I’ve been really busy the last few days and just found the time to work on this. Looking at the Red Sox staff though, it definitely feels like they have a lot more balance than the White Sox do. Despite not all having electric high velo fastballs, the Red Sox staff has a lot more junkballers and offspeed dependent pitchers on the staff. Yordan will definitely need to control the zone early and often to avoid swinging at bad pitches, but he also needs to be selectively aggressive against the zone pounders like Eduardo Rodriguez or Martin Perez. Overall I’m not too worried with the matchups other than a few of the guys with good fastballs and offspeed pitches with the command to reliably use them, and considering how well Houston’s lefties (and righties) were against these guys in the 2017 ALDS and 2018 ALCS (moreso the first one) I think this will be a pretty fun series that should be handily won.

Today’s statline: 1-2, 2 BB, RBI, R

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At bat 1 (Bottom of second): 8 pitch walk

As expected, the White Sox rolled out Lucas Giolito to pitch game 2, someone who I thought Yordan did not have a particularly good matchup against. It looked like that at first in this at bat as well, as the at bat started with Yordan watching an offspeed pitch low and in the zone for a strike and then swinging and missing at a slider in his sweet spot, slightly out of the zone down and away. Down 0-2, the odds didn’t look good for Yordan, but instead of folding he buckled down, taking that same slider to make it a 1-2 count and then taking consecutive pitches high and outside to make the count full. Having worked back into the count, Yordan capped off the at bat by fouling off the two definitive pitches of the at bat so far, a slider low and inside and a high fastball, to stay alive. Having stayed alive and in a situation where Giolito had to throw a fastball to him, Yordan didn’t push things, and instead took Giolito’s 8th pitch, a low fastball, to take his base, working from down 0-2 to work the walk. Although he was erased on the bases immediately after by a Gurriel fielder’s choice, this was a magnificent at bat by Yordan, and in particular I was extremely impressed by how he layed off difficult Giolito offspeed pitches and high fastballs to make a winning play.

At bat 2 (Bottom of third): 1 pitch foul out to catcher

Coming off such a good at bat, it was reasonable for Yordan to be a bit more aggressive on the first pitch this time, having taken a bunch of high hittable pitches the previous at bat. This was indeed the case, as Giolito threw Yordan a nice changeup high in the zone but definitely hittable. Unfortunately, Yordan was way under on it, hitting a lazy foul pop fly that was caught by the catcher. It’s not often that someone like him misses like that on a hittable pitch, hopefully he gets a better swing off next time up.

At bat 3 (Bottom of fifth): 6 pitch walk

The Astros lineup strung together consecutive good at bats before Yordan, meaning that Giolito got a pretty short hook in favor of Garrett Crochet (for a second straight game???). Unlike game 1 though, where Yordan looked completely outmatched vs Crochet, Yordan took a much more measured approach verses Crochet’s heat. In fact, it was almost like he knew exactly what Crochet was going to throw and where, as he started the at bat up 2-0 after taking two inside fastballs, hard fouled off two in the zone in between another inside one off the plate (although this one was near his hands rather than low and inside) and finally took a fastball down and outside (somewhere that I originally considered a problem area for him) for a ball to work the walk and load the bases. Very impressed by him here, after yesterday’s at bat I expected Crochet to pound him low and outside, but Yordan did a great job today to take all of the junk fastballs off the plate, time up his swing on the ones in the zone, and ultimately make the winning play instead of swinging at a bad pitch to pad his stats. He would make it to second on a huge 2-run single by Gurriel, but wouldn’t score as he was erased on a Correa double play to end the inning.

At bat 4 (Bottom of seventh): 3 pitch single to center, RBI, R

Yordan faced the 3rd different pitcher in the game today, as in a tie game La Russa chose to bring in Aaron Bummer to face Yordan with two runners on. In the ALDS preview, I heavily emphasized how Yordan needed to seek out a hittable fastball in the zone to have success here, and he took this to heart. Bummer threw two noncompetitive fastballs low and outside, and Yordan took both of them to work ahead 2-0. This forced Bummer to throw a fastball in the zone, and just like I predicted Yordan did damage on it, lining it into right center field for the tiebreaking single that scored Altuve. This hit, while merely ok in a vacuum, would become extremely important later in the inning, as he scored later on a Correa double that was part of a huge inning. None of this happens without Yordan putting together a quality at bat and keeping the line moving.

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Pitch data:

Fastball – 12

8 taken for ball, 3 foul, 1 put in play (single)

Slider – 3

1 strike swinging, 1 foul, 1 taken for ball

Changeup – 3

1 taken for strike, 1 taken for ball, 1 put in play (foul out)

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Another great game today for Yordan. While it may not have been as flashy as his HR and 2B game from yesterday, the underlying fundamentals he showed today were just as good as game 1. Specifically, his mastery of the fastball continued today, as he didn’t swing and miss at a single one and took 2/3 of them for balls. This great discipline against the White Sox’s bread and butter pitch (high fastballs) allowed him to get into good counts and allow his teammates to get more opportunities, which was key today. Again, I would have liked him to do more with the few offspeed pitches that were sprinkled in throughout the game, but that’s just nitpicking at this point, as Yordan clearly knows at this point how to attack the White Sox pitchers. With the season on the line, it’s a good bet that Liam Hendriks will be pitching in game 3 though, so him possibly facing Yordan should be interesting to watch. Either way a great game for Yordan and the Astros today, hopefully they complete the sweep on Sunday to advance to their 5th consecutive ALCS.

Today’s statline: 2-3, HR, 2B, 2 RBIs, 2 R, K

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At bat 1 (Bottom of second): 6 pitch walk, R

On yesterday’s ALDS preview DDoY I wrote that the key for Yordan against Lynn would be to not swing at bad fastballs out of the zone, and he backed up that point entirely in this at bat. Lynn’s first two pitches in the at bat were inside fastballs near his hands that Yordan could have easily swung at and grounded out weakly, but he took them both to get ahead commandingly 2-0. He then chopped one foul to make it a 2-1 count, and then watched another fastball outside for a ball. Ahead in the count, Yordan could afford to swing away, so he launched a fastball in the zone foul to make the count full, and then watched a low fastball outside to take the walk. Great job by him to do exactly what I said would be important for him to do, taking all the junk outside for balls and forcing Lynn to either pitch to him or make him pay. He would advance to third on good baserunning (including going to third on a Tucker lineout) and scored the game’s first run on a Meyers RBI single. Great start to the game for both him and the Astros.

At bat 2 (Bottom of third) 3 pitch double to center, RBI

Facing Lynn again in the top of the third, Yordan again did a great job capitalizing on Lynn’s lack of command on his fastball, taking one low and one high out of the zone to put him ahead 2-0. Such luxury gave him the opportunity to swing away, and Lynn threw him a meatball high in the zone that he crushed deep into center field for a hard RBI double. If Yordan had waited back on it he probably could have hit it out, but nonetheless it still scored Bregman and he easily cruised to second on the stand up double. Although he wouldn’t score in the inning (Gurriel struck out and Correa grounded out) this was another great effort by him here to work into a good count, giving him the luxury of swinging at a good pitch and keep the line moving.

At bat 3 (Bottom of fifth): 5 pitch home run to right, RBI, R

Having knocked Lynn out of the game the inning prior, Yordan got the luxury of facing Reynaldo Lopez in the fifth instead, someone who (like most of the White Sox pitching staff) has an electric fastball but questionable command and secondary pitches. Yordan started the at bat off by swinging and missing at a fastball high in the zone, before taking another one borderline outside to even the count. After taking a slider inside (very borderline call) for a strike to put him down 1-2, Yordan watched that same pitch but more inside to make it a 2-2 count. Then, on the 5th pitch Lopez went back to the slider well one too many times, as he hung one right over the lower half of the plate. Yordan shoveled (looked like he scooped it out of the ground at first) it into right field for a 411 feet, no doubt bomb that served as an exclamation point on his amazing night. After being fed fastball after fastball all day it was great to see him do damage on the lone offspeed pitches he got so far.

At bat 4 (Bottom of sixth): 4 pitch strikeout looking

With Lopez having excited the game prior to Yordan’s second at bat, this meant Yordan had to face Garrett Crochet out of the bullpen, and it went about as well as you would expect. Crochet targeted high and outside but in the zone against Yordan, and he seemed a bit overwhelmed by the 98 MPH heat at first, watching one for a strike and then swinging and missing at another. He somewhat recovered by watching one for a ball low and inside, but then he watched a nasty slider fall right into the upper half of the strike zone for called strike 3. A disappointing way to end an otherwise amazing game, but Crochet was probably Yordan’s toughest lefty matchup in the series and the fact that he had to face 2 innings today means he will probably be out for games 2 and 3, which is a relief.

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Pitch data:

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Fastball: 12

8 taken for ball, 2 foul, 1 strike swinging, 1 put in play (double)

Slider: 4

2 taken for strike, 1 taken for ball, 1 put in play (home run)

Not surprising at all to see Yordan being fed a steady diet of fastballs from Chicago’s righties, as that was outlined as one of the most important factors in how the ALDS would be decided. I was surprised and very impressed by his discipline on them, however, as he took an amazing 8/12 for balls and had a very nice swing on all the other ones. For some areas of growth though, he did look a little passive against the offspeed pitch when it was used early, and he looked completely lost against Crochet for most of the 4th at bat. Those are minor flaws to pick apart though, and Yordan was just amazing today for 90% of the game. A triumphant first postseason game back, hopefully the start of a legendary postseason run.

A bit of a different take on DDoY here, as with no games to play until the ALDS and a couple of off days, I thought I’d analyze all the pitchers on the White Sox’ roster, and see how they stack up to Yordan in preparation of the coming ALDS. Going to do a detailed analysis of every starter and then a quick write up of him vs every reliever, before writing about some key matchups and an overall outlook.

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Starters:

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Lance Lynn

While on paper, Lynn may be extremely imposing to the Astros lineup (and in particular Yordan), a closer look reveals that it may be a lot more favorable to Yordan than previously thought. Lynn throws around 90% fastballs, most of which are high spin 4 seamers and cutters low in the zone. He doesn’t throw particularly hard and his offspeed pitches aren’t particularly intimidating, as both his curve and changeup are primarily used low and inside, in Yordan’s sweet spot. The stats back that up, as 11 at bats Yordan is hitting a godly .455 against Lynn with a .727 SLG. Lynn will definitely be trying to get Yordan to ground into soft contact to the shifted infield, so as long as he doesn’t get jammed by fastballs near his hands or the low and outside junk he should be relatively fine. Lynn is a zone pounder so ideally you would want Yordan to be aggressive on the fastballs, but don’t be surprised if he’s unnaturally passive early, seeking out an offspeed pitch in his favorite quadrant.

Lucas Giolito

Unlike Lynn, who has superior counting stats but has a questionable matchup advanced metrics wise, Giolito fucking scares the s**t out of me. He’s a lot more dependent on his offspeed pitches, throwing them around half of the time, and induces a lot of soft contact as a result. Giolito has owned Yordan and the Astros as a whole this season, and it feels like Yordan will struggly against Giolito’s blend of power fastballs and finesse offspeed pitches. The best case scenario for Yordan here is probably to work ahead in the count after taking some offspeed pitches out of the zone, and then capitalize on a hittable fastball that Giolito will have to throw in the zone. Overall I don’t like this matchup at all, good thing Yordan only needs to face him for 1 game.

Dylan Cease

Cease had a breakout year in 2021, and with Carlos Rodon’s status up in the air, it’s likely that he will be starting game 3. He has an elite two pitch combo, with a fastball that possesses elite movement and velocity to go with his ridiculously spinning breaking ball. While it may be intimidating to first hear that, the good news is that such velocity comes at a tradeoff, which is that when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. His baseball savant page shows that despite his electric arsenal, his barrel % is in the 15th percentile, and his average exit velocity is in the 38th percentile. This, combined with his bad walk rate (3.7 BB/9) leads me to have a pretty positive outlook on this matchup. As long as Yordan lays off on the offspeed out of the zone he’ll get some juicy fastballs he can barrel for hard contact. Cease is also 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA against the Astros as a whole, so I don’t really fear the possibility of Yordan doing good but the other hitters going cold in game 3. Oh god now that I say that Cease will pitch a CGSO with 15 K’s like Clemens in the world series.

Carlos Rodon

As mentioned above, Rodon’s status for the ALDS is up in the air, as numerous articles have stated that although he is “hopeful” he can pitch in the playoffs, La Russa will not use him if he is not 100%. That is good news to hear on the other side, as Rodon, as a lefty with great stuff and peripherals, is probably the weakest matchup for Yordan in the White Sox starting pitching bunch. Rodon absolutely carved up the Astros lineup in the regular season, and although Yordan did go 2-6 off him, both hits were weak singles and he also had 2 strikeouts on bad pitches. As a result while I wish the best for him and hope he makes a speedy recovery from his injury, I want no part of him and I hope he doesn’t pitch an inning in the ALDS.

Dallas Keuchel

I was originally hesitant to include Keuchel in this list, as he was borderline unplayable in the regular season this year and might not even be on the postseason roster. However, as one of four lefties on the White Sox major league roster at the moment, there’s a strong chance he will come out of relief to face Houston’s most dangerous lefties, in particular Brantley and Yordan. That aside I am not scared of Keuchel in the slightest. His Baseball Savant page is honestly pretty embarrassing, the only thing he’s good at is inducing weak contact. He’s definitely going to come out in a double play situation with a lefty up, and in that case, Yordan simply needs to get a good swing off on Keuchel’s unintimidating fastballs and not hit it into the ground to have success. Having pitched in Houston for quite a while, it’s also likely that the Astros know Keuchel better than anyone, and that may come in handy in a potential matchup. Because of this, despite him having the platoon advantage I am licking my chops if I’m Yordan and I get to face Keuchel, especially with runners on.

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Relievers:

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Aaron Bummer

Bummer is a classic high strikeout, high walk reliever with a great fastball but also gets hit really hard. He has dominated against lefties in his career (.472 OPS allowed), but across 7.1 innings facing the Astros he’s allowed an abysmal 8.59 ERA with 3(!) wild pitches. His best pitches (fastball and slider) also happen to be thrown most where Yordan feasts, low and inside. If he avoids the junk low and outside and connects well on a fastball, I could see some fireworks happening, but if Yordan is off I could see some ugly strikeouts too.

Ryan Burr

Despite the good stats this year, I’m not scared of Burr at all in a potential matchup. He’s allowed a career .397 OBP to lefties and his stats paint the picture of a guy without intimidating stuff and a flat fastball that merely gets by instead of striking out guys. Like Lynn, he heavily relies on his fastball as his go to pitch, throwing it above 90% of the time, but unlike Lynn, he lacks the secondaries needed to take that next step. If Yordan faces him he should sit dead red every pitch, Burr doesn’t really have a fallback plan.

Garrett Crochet

Among the lefties in Chicago’s pen, there’s no one I fear more than Crochet, and it’s not particularly close. His fastball blazes like the sun and his secondaries are damn good and when executed well should be lethal for a power heavy lefty like Yordan. However, like most of the pitchers the White Sox have, he struggles with walks and gives up a lot of hard contact. If Yordan chases or is slow on fastballs he’s screwed, but like the other pitchers if he can command the zone and force Crochet into throwing a mistake fastball that sucker is getting smashed.

Matt Foster

Not sure if he will even make the postseason roster, as he had an ERA of 6 this year and underlying metrics were just as flattering. He doesn’t strike out many guys and his stuff is unimposing, so like Keuchel Yordan should be begging for an opportunity to face him.

Michael Kopech

Kopech is a pretty interesting pitcher to analyze in a head to head, as his savant stats are elite and he’s actually better against lefties than righties. Like nearly all the White Sox pitchers, his fastball is elite and his slider and curve are nasty as well. Like the other White Sox pitchers though, he does have some command issues (see a common theme here?) and he gets his outs by pounding the zone, as shown by his 34th percentile chase rate. The most important thing to note here is that Yordan cannot be passive against him, if he takes pitches off or lofts into an at bat he could easily be down 0-2 before he blinks an eye. This aggressiveness also can’t come at the cost of his discipline, as if he goes down the count Kopech will make him expand his zone. My analysis probably makes it sound like Kopech is some kind of insurmountable monster that Yordan can’t beat, but make no mistake, Yordan can do damage if he plays it right. Something to note: Kopech’s changeup is rarely thrown, but it isn’t that effective and he throws it mostly in Yordan’s sweet spot. If he throws one expect Yordan to all in swing on it.

Reynaldo Lopez

Unlike the majority of the White Sox staff, who have great stuff but bad command issues, Lopez stands out as someone who doesn’t walk many guys, but also has a very flat (but fast) fastball and lukewarm secondary pitches. He’s very good against lefties, and excels at getting soft contact off his fastball into the ground (13% launch angle this year on average). Like Keuchel, Yordan needs to be able to make good contact on the pitches, and not settle for a groundout or lazy fly ball. He should also be pretty aggressive against Lopez too, as he will primarily get pitches in the zone and needs to capitalize on them.

Jose Ruiz

Ruiz represents the extreme outliers of the White Sox’ pitching staff perfectly, as he has a super fast fastball with great spin. That fastball masks his underlying issues, which include 1(!) percentile average exit velocity and 1(!) hard hit percentage. His terrible peripherals combined with his extremely mediocre offspeed offerings make this a pretty heavy advantage in Yordan’s favor, as he’s one of the best offspeed hitters in the league and hits the ball hard pretty much every time.

Ryan Tepera

Tepera had a breakout year this season after years spent being a merely “good” reliever. His whiff % and strikeout rate exploded this year, all while maintaining his great soft contact and hard hit rates. I know I’m supposed to be this Yordan expert that knows everyone’s strengths and weaknesses, but Tepera is a total wild card to me. Interestingly, his barrel % of 50th percentile is well below what someone like him should have, maybe that’s something the Astros will exploit by swinging for power heavily. Other than that Yordan should focus on hitting his fastball, which isn’t very fast and is predominantly on the low outside half of the plate. Maybe also ask Ryan Pressley on how he pitches, because Tepera’s low velocity high spin fastball and amazing peripherals reminds me of him a lot.

Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel’s 2021 season is the story of two halves, the 0.49 ERA he put up as a cub with a 1.10 FIP and the 5.09 ERA he had as a member of the White Sox. I have no clue which version of Kimbrel will show up in the playoffs, but even throughout the year, he’s been getting hit hard when he’s gotten hit at all (like Liam Hendriks, who is below him) and his walk rate is pretty substandard. Yordan should take a wait-and-see approach with Kimbrel, and first see if he can get in the zone before becoming aggressive on his fastball. As the Astros saw firsthand in the 2018 ALCS, an off Kimbrel with subpar command can still get outs if the offense isn’t wise about which pitches to swing at.

Liam Hendriks

Remember when I said Kopech looks like this insurmountable monster but actually is beatable? Well, Hendricks actually is that monster, and uh, he’s even more imposing. His savant page is one worth drooling over, as his velocity, spin, K rate, and slugging percentage are all immaculate. He also has amazing command for a reliever, with a historic 113 strikeout to 7 walks in 2021. However, Hendriks isn’t perfect, as (somehow) he has a tendency to give up quite a bit of hard contact, in the rare instances where he does give up a hit. 11 of his 20 runs given up this year were on the long ball, and he allowed a career high launch angle and hard hit % on hits allowed. Yordan’s best play here is probably to be super passive in the beginning and work into a hitters count, all while sitting dead read in his favorite zone.

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Final thoughts:

Looking through the list of sox relievers I’m surprised by the sheer depth they have. There’s a lot of guys that are really solid contributors and all have their own endearing qualities. However, I’m also struck by how replaceable the guys are as well. A lot of the guys seem like they came from Multiplicity, with most of them being the same generic build of super high velo guys with good stuff that all have their different warts. That being said, the series will hinge on two key things:

A) How well Chicago can utilize their lefties against Yordan

Chicago’s pitching staff is predominantly righties with high strikeout stuff that like to work down and away to righties, and while that may work against guys like Bregman, Altuve, or Correa to an extent, those pitches go right into the sweet spot of Houston’s righties like Brantley and Yordan. They should feast against those pitches, and so it’s going to be important how La Russa uses his limited lefty arms in relief, particularly in high leverage situations. As we’ve discussed, Yordan is a very good matchup against Bummer and Keuchel, and Crochet can only pitch one inning at most and is pretty inexperienced. Rodon’s potential return will be huge here, but it’s up to Yordan first and foremost to do well against the lefties that La Russa has at his disposal right now.

B) How Yordan does against high-velocity fastballs high in the zone against Chicago’s righties

As I’ve mentioned before, Chicago’s righties all have good stuff but tend to struggle to command it, especially the relievers. Yordan is one of the best in the game at hitting fastballs, but only when he’s prepared for it and they’re mistakes. If he goes down 0-2, there’s a good chance he’s going to have to protect the plate and chase out of the zone with the many nasty offspeed pitches the White Sox staff has. Thus it’s going to be crucial for him to be selectively aggressive early and work into good counts so that he can get good pitches he can capitalize on.

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If you made it this far, thanks a lot for reading! Wanted to do something special to commemorate the start of the postseason, and this felt like a good way to waste ~3 hours of my day. Hopefully Yordan and the Astros are able to take advantage of the White Sox in the ways I’ve detailed above. Game 1 is right around the corner, I’ll see you then.

Today’s statline: 1-3, 2B, K

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Yordan originally started the game on the bench with Baker probably wanting to rest him in preparation for the postseason, but he ended up coming in as a defensive switch of all things in the 6th innings. Apparently Baker said he would be swapping Brantley’s old man legs sometime in the game for Yordan in a tweet I didnt see, either way an interesting way to begin the last regular season daily dose of Yordan.

At bat 1 (bottom of sixth): 2 pitch groundout to second

The at bat started with Yordan watching a fastball inside and low that caught the bottom of the zone, he then got another low fastball, this one a bit higher than the first, and pulled it to the right side. Like countless well hit Yordan ground balls however, this one was also right to the shifted infield, and the second baseman made the routine throw to first for the out. Altuve would move up to third on the play, although it wouldn’t matter, as Tucker hit a two-run bomb to score him later in the inning.

At bat 2 (Bottom of seventh): 6 pitch strikeout swinging.

Facing Sergio Romo with two runners on, Yordan took a changeup that looked to be off the plate, but was called a strike anyways for strike one. He then watched consecutive offspeed pitches low and away to put him ahead 2-1, and then fouled off a fastball in a similar spot as the first pitch to even the count at 2-2. After taking another outside changeup, this time way off the plate, to make the count full, Yordan was given the green light on 3-2 but swung and missed pretty badly on a slider down and away. While it may have been a bit concerning to see him miss like that on what is normally his money zone, he was put in a pretty bad situation with the first pitch, and this probably should have been a walk. This may come back to haunt them, as the A’s ended up tying the game in the ninth down 3. Thankfully Yordan will get a chance for a walk off, we’ll see if he can conjure up any magic then.

At bat 3 (Bottom of ninth): 3 pitch double to left

Facing Lou Trivino in the bottom of the ninth with a runner on, Yordan took two offspeed pitches, one that caught the outside part of the zone for a strike and one low for a ball. Then Trivino threw him a fastball middle-middle in the zone that Yordan absolutely crushed, launching it deep opposite field for a near home run. Castro made a great read on it and went all the way to third on the stand up double. While it may have been nice to end the DDoY on a high note with a walk off double in the final game, alas, it wasn’t meant to be, as Castro stayed at third thanks to a decent recovery by the outfielder. He would score immediately later on a Yuli walk-off single, ending both Yordan (and the Astros) season in style. Great job by Yordan before him though, to seek out a hittable mistake from the pitcher and do damage on it to keep the line moving in a scenario where you only need to score one run.

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This marks the last regular season daily dose of Yordan, but fear not, as there are (at least) 3 more ALDS DDoYs on the way, with detailed postseason coverage and pitch analysis. Also will be doing a preview of Yordan vs the division series opponent White Sox, that should be out in a couple of days. Thanks to everyone for a great year, it was an amazing experience to interact with the members of this community and bond over our shared love of Yordan Alvarez. Job’s not finished however, let’s hope Yordan (and the Astros) finish the 2021 season strong.

Today’s statline: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, R, K

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At bat 1 (Bottom of first): 3 pitch home run to right, 3 RBIs, R

Down in an early 2-0 hole but with two runners on, the at bat didnt start the way Yordan or the Astros wanted it to, with him swinging and missing badly on an offspeed pitch down in the dirt. He then chopped another outside offspeed pitch foul to put himself down 0-2. Considering Yordan seemed to have problems hitting Blackburn’s changeup correctly, the logical pitching strategy would be to throw him a fastball to mess up his timing, but instead Blackburn threw Yordan a curve even slower than the fastball but low and just a bit out of the zone, his sweet spot. He dug it out of the inside corner and crushed it into right field, almost like a line drive for a lead-taking 3 run home run, scoring Altuve and Bregman. Great job by him here to break that HR slump he was on and take advantage of a pitcher throwing right into his favorite part of the zone.

At bat 2 (Bottom of second): 4 pitch lineout to center

Facing Blackburn again, this time in the second now with a big lead, Yordan this time got two consecutive fastballs from him, one way outside the zone for a ball, and then a strike right down the middle that evened the count. After a changeup in a similar place as the 1st pitch made it a 2-1 count, he got a fastball high in the zone that he normally feasts on, but instead he hit a solid line drive that was unfortunately right at the center fielder instead. He made pretty good contact in my opinion, just couldnt get the thing to fall.

At bat 3 (Bottom of fourth): 3 pitch strikeout swinging

Unlike the previous at bat, which was a bad result despite a good try, this at bat was not promising at all. After a trademark look on a changeup high in the zone, Yordan swung and whiffed twice in row on very hittable, high fastballs that were in the exact same location. While they were well executed pitches, sure, there’s not really an excuse for a hitter of Yordan’s caliber to miss on two nice pitches in the zone with such uncomfortable swings.

At bat 4 (Bottom of sixth): 1 pitch lineout to center

After a terrible previous at bat, Yordan started the at bat off by getting a fastball in the zone and hit it pretty well to center field. Unfortunately, just like the second at bat, it was right at the center fielder, who made the routine grab to end Yordan’s night at 1-4. Some very well hit fly balls, hopefully he can turn those into tangible results by the postseason. Just one more regular season DDoY left until extensive postseason coverage!

Today’s statline: 3-4, HR, 2B, 2 R, 3 RBI

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At bat 1 (Top of first): 3 pitch home run to center, 2 RBIs, R

Yordan took the first two pitches of the at bat, both pitches well off the plate, a fastball way outside and a curve way down in the zone. Altuve stole second after the first pitch, a heads-up move by him there to easily take the base after reading the delivery of the pitcher well. Then the starting pitcher (Named Janson Junk, that last name will be relevant soon) threw Yordan a pitch you just cannot throw to him, a middle-middle fastball right down the middle. He just yanked it right off his bat, driving it extremely deep into center field for a no-doubt 2 run home run to start off the game with a bang. Words can’t really describe the hit, everything about it, from the sound it made to the reactions everyone on the field had was perfect. This stillframe is a great image of what happened, everyone just watching and admiring the majestic dong. I swear I could hear that hit from around ~350 miles away, it was just that nice of a swing and result.

At bat 2 (Top of third): 1 pitch groundout to first

Again facing Junk, this time in the third, Yordan swung away at a curveball down but still well within the confines of the zone and made good contact on it, driving it to the right side of the infield with a bit of force. Unfortunately, it was right to the shifted first baseman, who threw the routine out to the pitcher covering first to end the inning.

At bat 3 (Top of sixth): 3 pitch single to center

Facing the new reliever with no one on, Yordan took the first two pitches of the at bat for balls, both low in the zone, just like in the first at bat. The first pitch was a slider low and away that was nowhere close, and the second one another slider that was a bit closer but also way inside for ball two. Then again, Yordan forced the Angels pitcher to throw a fastball right down the middle, and once again, he made solid contact on it, as he dumped it into center field for a single despite being slightly jammed by the pitch. A good job by him to simply muscle out a hit on a pitch he was targeting, even though he would be erased on the bases soon after on a Tucker fielder’s choice.

At bat 4 (Top of eighth): 5 pitch double to center, RBI, R

Facing Steve Cishek in the top of the inning now down by two runs, Yordan started the at bat by watching two offspeed pitches, one inside and one outside, but both off the plate to work into a 2-0 count. He then took a no-doubt take on an offspeed pitch right down the middle, before ripping yet another breaking pitch foul down the line to even the count at 2-2. Cishek then went back to the breaking ball well one too many times, as he hung a terrible slider right down the middle that Yordan launched into center field, missing a home run by mere inches. Still a great job to keep the line moving and put the Astros back within one, he would later score the huge tying run on a Gurriel single to bloop center.

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Yordan started the game in LF but was suddenly pulled in the eighth after seemingly walking out to start the inning in LF. Pretty confusing move, I guess it was defense oriented but it’s always confusing when your (arguably) best bat is benched in the later innings. We’ll see how that pans out.

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EDIT: Yordan’s replacement in the double switch, Jose Siri, didn’t bat at all, but Aledmys Diaz pinch hit for him and went 0-2 with 2 strikeouts. He did look a lot better in the field though, so I guess it worked out in the end. Overall just a great game from Yordan, capitalizing early and often on the terrible pitches the Angels pitchers were throwing him.

Today’s statline: 1-2, R, 2 BB, DP

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At bat 1 (Top of first): 5 pitch double play to shortstop

Yordan started the at bat with his customary strike taken right down the middle, this time on a slider low near his knee area. He then took a fastball nowhere near the zone to even the count. The pitcher then threw Yordan another lazy slider right down the middle, and pulled it deep to right field but hooking foul. An inside fastball near his hands evened the count back up to 2-2, before getting a fastball right in the zone that he chopped up the middle. Unfortunately with the shifted defense the shortstop (Rengifo I think?) made a nice play to throw out both Yordan and the lead runner Gurriel to end the inning. Although it wasn’t an ideal outcome, it definitely looked like he was consistently recognizing and hitting the starter’s changeup really well, hopefully that translates in future at bats.

At bat 2 (Top of third): 6 pitch walk

The at bat started off with two low changeups from the starter to Yordan, the first of which was low and in the dirt and the second of which he chopped foul. He then had an extremely good take, cold watching a very easy to chase fastball that appeared to be slightly off the plate. He then took an offspeed pitch again way down and away to put himself ahead 3-1. He then took another one of his trademark cold takes on a fastball right down the middle to put himself in a full count, but then took another fastball way outside the zone (like a couple feet outside) to take his base. He would advance to second on a Correa single, but would not score, as Tucker grounded out to end the inning. Great job here by him to take some pretty difficult pitches and force the pitcher to walk him, seeing how his command was off.

At bat 3 (Top of fifth): 1 pitch single to center, R

Facing the new reliever in the top of the inning, Yordan displayed his elite brand of selective aggressiveness, as he swung at the first pitch he liked, a 97 MPH fastball that was flat and right down the middle, and pounded it up the middle past a diving Rengifo into center field for a clean single. He absolutely scorched the ball, a nice Yandy Diaz-style hit for him here. He would later advance to second on a Tucker walk and then score on a Aledmys Diaz 2-run single that effectively ended the game.

At bat 4 (Top of sixth): 6 pitch walk

Yordan came up in a situation that usually should have been high leverage (1 out and 2 runners on) but because of the 6 run lead really wasn’t. The new reliever started off by throwing Yordan two back to back offspeed pitches, first a slider right down the middle that he fouled off and a changeup low in the zone that he watched for a ball. The reliever then decided to throw Yordan 4 consecutive fastballs the rest of the way, all of which were high, but most of which were outside the zone and/or near his hands. Barring one which Yordan fouled off, he took his base with the easy walk as the pitcher simply could not reliably hit his spots with his fastball and Yordan made him pay for that. Although he would later be erased on a Tucker fielder’s choice later in the inning, it was still a great and extremely underrated at bat of this game for him to keep the line moving and take what the pitcher gave him.

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Having started in LF for today’s game and with a 9 run lead, Dusty (understandably) took Yordan out in the bottom of the inning, choosing to end his night early in favor of Chas McCormick. He didn’t look particularly bad in left today, he made a few routine plays, although he still looked extremely herky-jerky at times in the field, such as when Gosselin hit a double to him very early in the game. As always, good to see him getting reps in the field, although with the postseason approaching he should probably play a lot more DH to get him into that mindset of contributing solely with his bat. Overall a big night for Yordan and the Astros, great to see and hopefully they carry over the momentum into the playoffs. Also would like to apologize for the lack of DDoY posts over the last ~week or so, would love to have covered his games then (his two homer game against Texas was extremely impressive) but just didn’t have the time.

Today’s statline: 1-2, RBI, 2 R, 3 BB

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At bat 1 (Bottom of first): 2 pitch flyout to right

Facing Ohtani in the first inning, Yordan started the at bat off by taking an easy 97 MPH fastball right in his wheelhouse down and away but in the zone for strike one. Then he got an offspeed pitch, also inside but slightly higher in the zone, that he hit pretty hard. He hit a pretty nice fly ball that carried to right field, but unfortunately it stayed too high to have any meaningful impact, as the right fielder made the easy play for the routine flyout.

At bat 2 (Bottom of third): 2 pitch double to center, RBI, R

Yordan again started the at bat by taking an Ohtani pitch in the zone and low for a strike, this time a slider. He then got the pitch he wanted, a slider in the zone inside but in the zone, identical to the pitch that got him out in the first inning. He absolutely crushed it, sending it way back to center field and off the wall for a stand up double. Bregman would score easily, and Yordan tacked on the first (of many) runs of the game for the Astros. A fantastic job by him to adjust and hunt out a pitch that got him out in the first, and capitalize on it to do damage. He then tied the game soon after by scoring on a Correa RBI single.

At bat 3 (Bottom of fourth): 4 pitch walk, R

Having forced Ohtani out of the game earlier in the inning, Yordan came up facing the new reliever with a runner on second. He took 4 consecutive fastballs, 3 of them low and out of the zone and one near his hands, all balls, to take the easy 4 pitch walk. He would again score later in the inning, this time on an Aledmys Diaz single after going to third on an error.

At bat 4 (Bottom of sixth): 6 pitch walk

The Angels sent out another pitcher to try and get Yordan out to lead off the inning, and once again, the plan backfired. The at bat started with Yordan taking consecutive high fastballs, one way outside for a ball, but the other a stone cold strike that evened the count. He then took another fastball outside by a lot for a ball, but then fouled off another fastball right down the middle to make the count 2-2. Instead of buckling down however, Yordan took a curve way inside for a ball to make the count full, and then took a slider way outside for the well earned walk. A very good job by him to work the zone and take his base when the pitcher couldn’t contend with his discipline. He would advance to second on a Correa single, but would not score in the inning.

At bat 5 (Bottom of seventh): 5 pitch walk

For the third time today, the Angels trotted out another no name reliever to face Yordan, trying to stop him from reaching base. For the third time they failed. After the previous reliever threw him mostly fastballs, Yordan got to face a junkballer this time, who nibbled the zone with offspeed, something you should never do with him. Yordan took ball one on a very questionable call by the ump (thanks blue!), and then again fouled off a pitch in his wheelhouse, offspeed low and inside. He then took three straight low pitches out of the zone to take the walk, finishing his day with 3 walks and a deep double to his name. Overall a very productive offensive game from him, proving that even without a long ball he can still impact a game positively in so many ways.

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Honestly today was a perfect microcosm of what Yordan can give you as a player. The deep contact, elite discipline, and good offensive fundamentals were all on display today, leading to an easy Astros win. What also was worth noting was his sus outfield defense in left field, including a noodle throw to third in the fifth on an Adell triple, leading to an unearned run. Probably should have held that one instead of risking it, but even with that one blemish he had a very good game , almost 100% sure he had his career high in walks in one game today. Probably should DH when the Astros reach the playoffs though, in a close game mistakes like that could compound.