Author: /u/Shenji458

Really hard to want Jerod Mayo or McDaniels or Flores after that beatdown of the Patriots and by extension the Patriots Way minus Tom Brady…

Brian Daboll though… Looking pretty tasty at the moment… Has to have moved up a lot of people’s coaching radars.

Get him or don’t, there’s a lot to like about the Bills organization this year. Timing is key in the NFL and the Bills have really capitalized on their Super Bowl window as much as possible. As you guys could have assumed, it starts with Josh Allen.

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Josh Allen’s Rookie Contract

The Bills are on year 4 of 5 of Josh Allen’s rookie contract. And that s**t, ladies and gentlemen, just isn’t fair. He’s a top five quarterback in this league and the team is completely built around him.

Even next year in 2022, Josh Allen’s contract allows the Bill to spend lavishly on the positions of their choice, just as they have this year. So what they have they done with those savings?

If you’ve watched football for a while you may’ve already guessed. Trench warfare.

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Bills cap breakdown in 2021

All those talking points from smart football analysts you hear all the time:

build the trenches, don’t overpay on a couple players, do as much as you can while your QB is cheap

The Bills did all that. The Bills spent more than most teams on their offensive and defensive lines. To get into detail about their linemen strategy would require its own post but the pattern is this: They took care to secure their key offensive linemen early so they didn’t have to hand out record breaking contracts. Left tackle Dion Dawkins is their highest paid player this year at $11 million. With all this cap space, the Bills didn’t go around signing superstars. Instead, they brought in a ton of high motor linemen.

Compare their d-line roster construction (Bills pay the second most in 2021) with the Chiefs (pays the most in 2021).

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Bills 2021 D-Line (Second most paid)

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Chiefs 2021 D-Line (Most paid)

As you can see, the Chiefs spend all their money between Chris Jones and Frank Clark yet don’t have the most notable defense. The Bills on the other hand employ more defensive players. The Bills defense are liable to wreck every offensive play not because of superstar talent but a wonderful rotation of young players and vets who jump in and out at full throttle.

Add in superb coaching + culture and a truly talented young QB… the Bills are built to take it all this year. They can do it all over again next year too, perhaps not to the same extent.

The Bills were aggressive in acquiring Stefon Diggs, but why? They gave up a first in 2020 for him (who became Justin Jefferson) AND a fifth, sixth, and ’21 fourth. Simply put, the Bills saw an elite level talent on a really cheap contract renewal. They could have extraordinary talent for not too much $$$ which fits perfectly into their roster building philosophy– so they gave up a ton of picks. Very different than what the Texans did with Tunsil — trading the farm AND having to sign him to a top 3 contract.

In 2023, they’ll pay Josh Allen franchise QB money so they’ll face more of an uphill battle as far as roster construction. Since drafting him, though, they’ve done a phenomenal job with their decision making and have wasted no time.

So!!… What will we do while Mills is cheap?

tl;dr : Bills GM is no stranger to auction draft, built a roster out of cheap, high potential linemen, avoided superstar contracts, and set the Bills up for a Super Bowl in Josh Allen’s rookie contract window.

Hello again, comrades. I come to give you another dose of my lunch break offseason thoughts, this time with a lot less kool-aid.

So, I had the unfortunate realization that we may not light the league on fire in ’22 as much as I previously thought…. because we have no money to! Some of you brought this up in other posts and y’all are right.

The Texans are broke in ’22. Have a look at our positional spending per spotrac for ’22.

Texans Positional Spending in 2022 as of Jan 13

Things to note and implications:

1. Our money is seriously tied up in QB. Deshaun Watson, for a lack of better words, could not be fucking us harder. Another note : “2023 salary & roster bonus fully guarantee on 3/20/2022″ You may’ve seen that the Texans want Watson out by March. That’s because if we don’t move Watson by March of this year, we pay him for 2023. Watson has already fucked over our cap in 2022. Idk what exactly a trade will do regarding his 2022 salary but it doesn’t seem like we can get it back.
2. Right now, we’re near the bottom of the league for spending on defense. If we had any money, I imagine we’d spend it on defense– but we don’t. So what will we do? I expect a heavy defensive draft to strengthen this side of the ball without breaking the bank.
3. Unless Tunsil is traded, we’re probably not doing anything with the O-line. At 9th in the league for spending, you could argue we’ve already done too much with the O-line. Even if it’s just Tunsil we’re paying, we’re expecting him to carry this line.
4. Another O-line bit– we don’t have a true center in 2022. We will draft or sign a center.
5. Wide receiver is stable. With Cooks and Collins playing very well and not hurting us too badly financially, don’t get your hopes too high up on us drafting or acquiring a star WR.
6. We aren’t paying runningbacks. As of now, only Rex Burkhead, Darius Anderson, and Scottie Phillips are guaranteed to be on the roster in 2022. We may see a top college runningback drafted to Houston or another cheap FA signing.
7. We may also see a top TE drafted to Houston or cheap FA signed. We have only Brevin Jordan and Paul Quessenberry locked in for 2022.
8. Finally, not pictured above, the Texans have a ton of dead money to pay out in ’22 because of some necessary cuts. It’s a disgusting amount but there’s nothing we can do about it. Financially speaking, Texans are bled out in ’22 and rich in ’23.

tl;dr: Money is tied up in Watson and cut players in 2022, so don’t expect big FA signings just yet. Do expect a heavily defensive centered draft for every position. Runningback, tight end, and center could see some intriguing moves. It’s going to be quite hard to win next year.

In 2023, it’s kind of funny.

Signed players for 2023

Only thing to note for 2023 is that we have basically no one signed for 2023 except for Caserio’s draft class and the few decent young players from BoB’s regime. I don’t know if there’s a roster in the NFL as empty as ours in 2023, hahaha.

By the time we arrive to 2023, the team is going to look very different.

Thanks for reading!