Author: /u/PrancingPeach

Nobody has a crystal ball, but just curious where folks in Houston see the local market headed, whether you’re an investor, potential buyer or seller, or just someone who observes it and opines on it for shits and giggles.

Right now, at least to me, it seems the market cooled significantly after interest rates shot up and effectively doubled. However, surprisingly, mortgage rates are now dropping and the stock market had its best month since last November. Also, Houston real estate never shot up nearly as much as Austin or other hot spots.

A few scenarios I can imagine:

• Sudden drop right now, followed by gradual growth back to (and beyond) early-2022 levels.
• Stabilization at current prices for a few years.
• A slow, gradual decline in prices to 2020 or 2019 levels over the next few years. So maybe a 10%-20% total drop.
• Continued price growth, but at a slower rate, because Houston’s economy is unique, not tech-driven, 4th largest city in the country, and prices never got super inflated in the first place.

Thoughts?

We bought a new house last year (June 2021), and the 2021 tax appraisal was $X. I just got a letter stating that the 2022 appraisal is a whopping 40% higher. I filed for a homestead exemption earlier this year as well, but the appraisal notice is showing that there are no active exemptions on the house. Does that mean I did something wrong with the filing?

Am I doing something wrong or misunderstanding homestead exemptions? I thought I should be able to get a homestead exemption for this year and cap the property tax increase at 10%.

Thank you — we’re new to homeownership, property taxes, exemptions, etc.

I know Houston and Texas in general are growing like crazy. What are your thoughts on whether we’re seeing a 2006-style speculative bubble or we’re just seeing a new threshold of prices set due to a mass migration from CA, etc., to cheaper states like TX?