Author: /u/Luberino_Brochacho

Not sure if y’all watched the Tennessee Bama game but Bryce Young absolutely showed out. At this point I’d be very happy to have him or Stroud on the Texans next year. Only high profile QB I’d be disappointed if we picked would be Levis at this point

So I’ve got today off work and decided to take a look at our offense vs the Jags. Probably our second worst offensive performance behind the Denver game and see where drives stalled out. I’ll just be looking at the 3 or 4 downs that actually ended the series not the whole possession.

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Note I’m not super well versed in the intricacies of offensive schemes or anything like that this is just a way to compile kinda what seems to be going wrong for us. Most people including myself walk away from a game with a general idea of how the offense looked but can’t always name what went wrong series by series so maybe this’ll be interesting for some.

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1st Possession. This is the opening possession starts on the 25 turns into a 3 and out

• 1st down: Mills pass batted down
• 2nd down: Quick out to Cook for 3 yards
• 3rd and 7: Deep out to Cooks. Mills has him open off the break for a 15 yard gain but sails it

2nd Possession. Final sequence starts at midfield

• 1st down: Pierce no gain
• 2nd down: Pierce to the right 4 yard gain
• 3rd down: Slant to Burkhead who was tripped up as Mills throws incomplete

3rd Possession. Starts at Texans 20

• 1st down: Pierce up the gut 2 yards
• 2nd down: Mills misses a checkdown to Pierce probably would have gone for 4 yards
• 3rd down: Mills gets pressure in his face lobs a deep out to Cooks. This is iffy, Cooks was open but it’s a long throw with pressure right in his face and Cooks nearly gets it. Accuracy could be better but a bigger true #1 WR makes the play I think. Blame to go around

4th Possession starts at the Jacksonville 40

• 1st down: Bubble screen out to Cooks for 5 yards
• Run to the left with Burkhead for 1 yard
• Run up the middle with Pierce for 1 yard. This one is just rough blocking by the oline and questionable play calling with Burkhead. Field goal kicked

5th Possession starts at Jags 34

• 1st starts with presnap penalty pushes it to 1st and 15. Screen to WR for 4 yards.
• 2nd down Mills check down to Pierce for a yard
• 3rd down Jags rush 4 and Green gets beat at LG Mills kinda tosses a hail mary back shoulder to Collins. Collins maybe makes this play if the throw is a little lower but Mills sails it. Kinda hard to blame him with pressure in his face however.

That is the last possession of the first half

6th Possession starts at Texans 42

• 1st down Toss to Burkhead goes for 6
• 2nd down up the gut for 2 with Pierce
• 3rd down play action Mills throws to Pierce in the flat, Pierce has to do a small jump to catch it allows defenders to close on him and only gets 1 yard on 3rd and 2 or 3. I think if Mills lays it on him in stride he can get to the outside for the first down. With it being such a short throw I’d really like to see Mills put it on him in stride just to give him a chance.

7th Possession is a 3 and out starts at Texans 35

• 1st down Center whiffs his block and Mills is sacked immediately
• 2nd down run to the right for a few yards
• 3rd down screen for 10-12 yards but short of the first down

8th Possession is the TD but just to note this drive initially stalled at the Jacksonville 40 because of a holding penalty on our WR but the Jags saved us with a penalty of their own

The last 2 possessions are both kinda run out the clock possessions so I won’t go on those.

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Now the rest will just be my opinion after watching the offense all 22 tape. Also keep in mind the above is just the last 3 plays of each drive there actually was a decent amount of good offense that lead up to these drives stalling.

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We’ll start with what you don’t need the tape to know. We really lack playmakers and we are completely dependent on the run game and Mills’ best plays have mostly come from play action. The fact that we are so dependent on the run also means we are totally unable to overcome any sort of adversity on an offensive drive. You take a sack on first down or get a hold and 9 times out of 10 that drive is over.

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But outside of that focusing on Mills this game weirdly enough slightly improved my opinion of him. I’m a Mills hater, I never thought he was terrible or anything but I was a hater. The good things I saw this game were

1. He didn’t miss many reads. I think over the course of the game I only saw two throws where he missed an open guy.
2. Didn’t make bad decisions. I only thought that he made one risky throw and even that one he put in a good spot away from the defender.

I still think the bad outweighs the good unfortunately. I think the things his game misses the most is

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1. Consistency, he can make these throws but the misses are just painful and often drive killers. I think there’s at least 3 drives in there that if he makes a good throw are extended. Not to mention a big underthrow to Nico Collins down the sideline. Nico came back and made the catch but if Mills hits him in stride it may be 6.
2. Mobility, I just look around at the top QB’s and QB mobility has just become so important. How many drives for the Bengals, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, etc get extended because their QB either scrambles for it or is able to escape the pocket and extend the play? We did not see one single instance of that in the Jags game. I think nowadays having a statue QB is causing you to miss opportunities other offenses are able to create and you’re gonna need to be an exceptional pocket passer to overcome that.

Don’t get me wrong this offense suffers from more than just Mills. Our pass blocking needs to get better. In particular the problems have been Kenyon Greene (just a rookie and he’s been great in run blocking so hopefully this improves) and whoever is playing center that day. But I think the biggest thing he lacks is a playmaker at WR. At this point I think Collins and Cooks are both solid number 2 receivers but a stud true WR1 would be massive for the offense.

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Personally after watching the tape my opinion has improved on Mills I think he could be a solid starter if he gets a talented offense around him if he can cut those inaccurate misses down to 1-2 per game instead of 4-6. There’s just such a fine line between a good starter and a backup that being able to make those throws could make this a competent looking offense. Obviously that’s a big if however and I think with his lack of ability to fit balls into tight windows or make anything happen with his legs solid starter is probably his absolute ceiling. Honestly he reminds me of Brock Osweiler a bit.