Author: /u/its2ez

At first glance, it doesn’t appear so. Mills has been getting a lot of flack for “checking down”, especially on this sub. However, through 4 games, Mills ranks 20th in air yards / attempt – just outside the top half of the league at 3.63. The more interesting thing is that this down from 2021 at 4.01.

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2022 Air Yards per attempt / 3.71 / 3.7 / 3.63 / 3.6

Why? Well, we can speculate. New offense that seems to consider itself a running a team even though they won all their games with Mills last year through the air. One of the more interesting stats is target separation. Target separation is defined as separation for all running backs, wide receivers, and running backs receiving passes beyond the line of scrimmage. The Texans sit at 1.55 or 25th, this is down from 1.65 last year. For context, Herbert and the chargers sit in first at 2.6. So we’re getting less creative in our offensive schemes (more predictable) and our receivers aren’t getting opened as much – it makes sense that Mills would throw more check downs.

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It’s because he has no pocket presence and he gets flustered and just checks it down. I mean, maybe? This theory might hold considering Mills’ Pressured Completion % is ranked 2nd only behind Stafford and ahead of Mahomes! At 58.3%, he’s making completions under pressure. Are they checkdowns? Maybe. If he’s under pressure, does it matter besides advancing the ball forward? I’m not sure. However, saying the Mills has no pocket presence I’m not sure is true. If he’s feeling pressure, he’s still completing passes at almost the best rate in the league.

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2022 Pressured Completion % / 68.4 / 58.3 / 56.5 / 52.6 (Josh Allen is 27.3)

One of the last things I wanted to look at was this idea that I think Pep is restricting him. They’re trying too hard to be a running team. In fact, when they let Mills air it out, Mills has QB1 deep ball numbers at a 40% completion rate for passes over 20 yards. This is good to rank him right at #12.

“Yea, but those balls never mean anything. They’re always in low pressure situations”. That might be mildly true, but Fantasydata.com keeps track of “Money ball” throws or a pass requiring exceptional skill or athleticism as well as critical throws executed in clutch moments. Mills comes in at #8.

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https://preview.redd.it/21gmgbc6o3s91.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=18f6f36ba286413838f34b274cb22d465041289f

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Cool, so what’s your point?

• Mills isn’t the check down king, don’t let your eyes deceive you.
• Pep is holding Mills back, let the guy air it out and get the passing game going – we’ve all seen Mills when he pushes and gets a rhythm going.
• His receivers aren’t getting separation – in fact, they’re in the bottom 7.
• Mills makes competent throws under pressure.
• This Texans team is a mess. Mills has his weaknesses, but the team around him isn’t helping.
• Oh, Texans are tied for 9th in dropped passes at 9. We had 14 the entire 2021 season.

Is Mills perfect? No. He does have accuracy issues under 20 yards that needs to be resolved, but putting the weight of this 0-3-1 start on him doesn’t seem accurate.

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Mills haters, please don’t hate me. We can still win our division!