Author: /u/degening

With the win today and the browns loss we have now locked up the 2nd overall and the 12th pick. Despite how upset everyone is about this I don’t think it materially changes the draft significantly and here are what I see as the most likely outcomes in order of more likely to less:

1: Nothing changes. The bears biggest need is dline and there are 2 very good dline that are both worth the first overall. Furthermore, to trade up to 1 form 5 (the colts pick) would take probably a minimum of 3 firsts, I dont think the colts pay this. If they don’t trade up they still get CJ at 5. I also don’t think the bears want to lose out on a top defensive talent for anything less. So, the most likely scenario I see is:

1 CHI takes Anderson

2 HOU takes Bryce

3 SEA takes Carter

4 AZ takes not a QB

5 IND takes QB

2: The colts (or anyone else) do trade up. Ok then we lose out on Bryce but can still just take CJ. Bryce is the consensus #1 QB but he isn’t a Lawrence level prospect and CJ isn’t that far behind. I would rather have Bryce, but it isn’t worth trying to jump the colts here. In this scenario the draft becomes:

1 IND take Bryce

2 HOU take CJ

3: A trade happens, and the Texans go defense. I put this as the 3rd most likely option but it’s fairly simple, Colts take Bryce, and the Texans take Anderson or Carter at 2. I could also see us move up to 6 or 7 here for CJ. Draft:

1 IND take Bryce

2 HOU takes Anderson

3 SEA takes Carter

4 AZ takes non QB

5 CHI takes non QB

6-7 Texans trade up with lions or LV (assuming they grab a vet qb) and take CJ. This trade would probably take a 2nd round from this year and maybe a 4th.

All in all I still think we end up with Bryce and the hysteria over the win today in unfounded. The first pick has only been traded once in over 20 years and there is a reason for that, teams would rather just take the best player. The Bears have a hole, and the draft has a prospect they would love. Look back at last years offseason fan posts and see how often fans on reddit say trade back and compare that to how often it actually happens. People wanted us to trade the #3 last year too. The reality isn’t the buyer is always there.

 att/comp comp% yards TD/INT Rat 

Mills 23/37 62.2% 240 2/0 98.9

Lawrence 24/42 57.1% 275 1/1 75

Lance 13/28 46.4% 164 0/1 50.3

Fields 8/17 47.1% 121 2/1 85.7

Jones 21/30 70% 213 1/1 87.2

Wilson 69/69 69% 69 6/9 69%

Compared to 2021 QB’s Mill’s didn’t actually look to bad. Mac had higher completion % and Fields won his game but Mills had highest rating.