Author: /u/dctexan202

https://theathletic.com/1945894/2020/07/27/2020-quarterback-tiers-50-coaches-and-evaluators-rank-the-nfl-starters/

Behind a pay wall… summary below:

Methodology: “Fifty NFL coaches and evaluators rated 35 veteran quarterbacks this year while providing candid evaluations that appear in the analysis below. The process was simple. Coaches and evaluators placed each quarterback in one of five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Once ballots were collected, results were averaged to create a ranking. Our unanimous Tier 1 choices averaged 1.00, while the lowest-rated player averaged 4.30. Quarterbacks fell into the tiers in which they received the most votes.

The survey excludes rookies. We included two quarterbacks for New England, Chicago, Washington and Las Vegas because those teams’ situations are interesting and/or it’s plausible to think more than one veteran could start for various reasons. Enough preamble. Let’s talk quarterbacks!”

Rankings (TBD this is the most objective list I’ve seen):

1. Tie: Wilson & Mahomes
2. Tie (see above)
3. Rodgers
4. Brees
5. Watson
6. Brady (Tier 2)
7. Jackson
8. Roethlisberger
9. Stafford
10. Ryan
11. Wentz
12. Prescott
13. Rivers
14. Murray (Tier 3)
15. Cousins
16. Goff
17. Garoppolo
18. Tan-Marino
19. Newton
20. Carr
21. Mayfield
22. Josh Allen
23. Bridgewater
24. Darnold
25. Daniel Jones
26. Foles
27. Mariota (Tier 4)
28. Fitzmagic
29. Tyrod Taylor
30. Drew Lock
31. Gardner Minshew
32. Trubisky

The list goes on but I cut off here.

Watson Summary:

Tier 1 votes: 28 | Tier 2 votes: 22 | 2019 Tier: 2

The average tier vote for Watson improved from 2.27 last year to 1.44 this year, the second-largest improvement in the survey. Only the Ravens’ Jackson made a larger jump. Voters thought Watson lagged behind the other Tier 1 quarterbacks in the finer points of the dropback passing game, but their respect for his ability to drive success with relatively little perceived support proved compelling, amid fears Watson could suffer from DeAndre Hopkins’ departure.

“The Buffalo game won me over,” an exec said of the Texans’ comeback from a 16-0 deficit to beat the Bills in the playoffs. “Watson gets everyone to believe in the face of certain peril. He makes the plays he needs to. This year will be a good test for him with a new cast.”

Led by Watson, the 2019 Texans were the only team to finish .500 or better while ranking 20th or lower in defensive EPA. Houston was 10-6.

“I look at the way the team wins,” a personnel director said. “Is it true complementary ball? Is it heavy run game? Does the quarterback rely on play-action? Is it stingy defense that allows them to have additional possessions? And then look at their supporting cast. When I think of the ones, I can put you into any roster and I know you are going to have a high level of success. I think with Deshaun Watson, there is a lot of, he wins in spite of his cast.”

Not a BOB apologist, thought we should’ve fired him after 2018 and I cursed winning the Buffalo game because I knew he’d stick around.

That being said, the weapons that DW4 has to work with this year represent a significant improvement over what we had last year and the year before.

Now we have Fuller and Cooks outside–who both can blow the top off a defense–and Cobb and Stills who can play in the slot. Additionally, Fells has emerged as a legit receiving threat at TE, and both Johnson’s are capable pass catchers out of the backfield.

None of our WRs individually can match what Hopkins brought to the offense. However (and this happened especially when Fuller was out), defenses would double team or bracket Hopkins to take him out of the game, forcing DW4 to look for production elsewhere. When Fuller was gone and Hop double teamed, there wasn’t much left.

Further, our offense is now better hedged against injury risk. The offense flat out sucked when Fuller was out. Hopkins never missed a game, but the offense would’ve been dead in the water without him. He’s also approaching 30 and has ended the last 2 seasons playing through injuries.

Fuller goes out? We’ve still got Cooks to blow the top off (and the other way around). Lose Cobb? We still have Stills.

Last, DW4 loves the deep ball. We’ve now given him more speedy weapons to stretch the field.

Long story short, I’m cautiously optimistic about our offense this year now that Deshaun has Cobb, Fuller, Cooks, Stills, Fells, Johnson & Johnson to throw to.