Author: /u/dctexan202

Current/Former HC Options for Texans if Lovie gets the Boot

My thoughts/preferences on our coaching options if we decide to part ways with Lovle. All the names on this list would be a significant improvement from what we have today. All three of these names have prior head coaching experience,

  • Mike McDaniel. He could be fired by the Dolphins. I don’t think you can blame him for the team’s franchise QB being unable to stay healthy for a year. I think he would be a great coach as we rebuild the team, and would be great to work with Mills or whatever QB we draft. He would be a significant improvement on offense.
  • Jim Harbaugh. He took the 49ers to three NFC championship games and a Super Bowl with average QB play. He’d be a significant improvement.
  • Sean Payton. Let him pick his staff and pick his QB to coach up.

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I Miss Rick Smith

Yep, that’s right. I said it. I’ll eat crow for wanting him gone after 2017.

The entire team fell apart after Rick left. He drafted JJ Watt, DeAndre Hopkins, and Deshaun Watson. He built us a SB-capable roster in 2011, 2012, and 2016, and 2017 (if Watt and Watson stayed healthy).

Hindsight is 20/20, but his departure opened the power vacuum that Easterby eventually stepped in and filled.

Also, NONE of the BS that we’re seeing today would’ve happened if Rick were still here.

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Call for Head Coaching Suggestions for a Research Project

Largely to procrastinate work and distract myself from the election, I’m undertaking a mini research project to build out a full evaluation & comparison of the potential HC options.

Right now I’m looking at the following names (not in order of preference):

  1. Eric Bienemy
  2. Robert Saleh
  3. Jim Harbaugh
  4. Todd Bowles
  5. Josh McDaniels
  6. Lincoln Reilly
  7. Matt Eberflus
  8. Joe Brady
  9. Matt LaFleur

Anyone else the sub would like to include?

I’ll post results in a separate thread later this week. I will be evaluating factor such as the following:

  • Coaching tree, mentors, scheme philosophy
  • Whether or not they have head coaching experience (NCAA or NFL)
  • Offensive or Defensive background
  • Age
  • Overall record
  • Level of talent (for NFL HCs and Coordinators)
  • QBs they have worked with
  • Playoff success

Anything else to add to the analysis?

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Reasons for Optimism

I know there’s a lot of negativity going around on this sub given how BOB seems to have wrecked this franchise since effectively taking full control after the 2019 season. That being said, and now that BOB is gone, there are still some reasons to be optimistic about the future of the team.

  • Deshaun Watson. There’s a reason why this offense looked electric in 2017 and then stagnant 2018 and beyond. That reason is that BOB was trying to force a square peg into a round hole. In 2017, Watson didn’t have time to learn the full offense, so TIM KELLY looked at his college film and built an offense to work to his strengths. Now with BOB gone, Kelly and Watson have full control over the offense. Expect to see more plays resembling what we ran in 2017.
  • WR + TE + RB corps. Yes, BOB’s roster and cap moves were atrocious this offseason. We’re overpaying for Cobb and DJ, and we traded away a valuable pick for Cooks. That being said, this group still possesses a lot of talent. Cobb has complained about not being used properly. Cooks barely gets any targets. Fuller and Stills are valuable deep threats. Our TEs aren’t world beaters, but Fells has proven valuable in the red zone with his 6’8″ height, and Adkins provides a serviceable target. DJ and DJ can both catch passes coming out of the backfield. A Deshaun-friendly offense will give him the creative opportunities to make plays and find these guys open. Not to mention that we’ve generally done well on PA and plays with 2+ vertical routes. The problem: BOB infrequently dialed up those plays. Expect to see a lot more.
  • The D has nowhere to go but up. Yes, they’ve been awful. But we’re about to find out how much of that was BOB’s fault for micromanaging the game plan. Weaver has shown creativity in his play calling and blitzes. Expect to see some different folks getting more snaps now that BOB is gone and not dictating who plays to the coordinators.
  • Everyone’s auditioning for their jobs. The assistant coaches likely will be gone next year, short of some sort of miraculous deep playoff run. Their incentive is to do well this year so that they can find their job next year. Tim Kelly needs to show that he can run an offense and that he’s more than just a BOB minion. Same with Weaver RE the D. This team has no motivation to tank. There is no draft pick reward, and JJ + DW aren’t going to sit there and let the team give up.
  • The worst part of our schedule is behind us, and the division is winnable. The Titans are likely looking at some forfeits. The Colts are a paper tiger and are beatable. I’m not worried about the Jags. We could win this division with a 9-7 record.
  • 7th Seed in the playoffs. There’s now a 3rd Wild Card seed that can be ours.

I know this roster has a lot of holes thanks to BOB. We’re paying too much for the wrong guys and let needed talent walk. That being said, there’s no reason that this team can’t be competitive this year, as long as DW4 stays healthy at QB.

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Cook Index Rankings (Texans #16 in Week 1)

Cook Index Rankings (Texans #16 in Week 1)

Edit: title should read “Texans #10 in Week 1”. Apparently I can’t read my own graphic.

Read an interesting article on the Cook Index, a metric that the folks over at The Athletic use to measure how much teams are embracing the shift toward the passing game. It is calculated by measuring the % of plays where teams pass the ball on 1st and 2nd down in the first 28 minutes of the game (first half outside of the 2 minute drill)–when play calls are not going to be as heavily influenced by score differential and time remaining.

The expectation is that teams with talented QBs should have a higher % of throws on early downs in the first half to take advantage of their passing talent.

Before diving into the metrics for Week 1, we should expect for the Texans to have a high rank in this metric as the season progresses. We’re built to succeed around Watson, and need to be putting the ball in his hands to win. IMO, if we’re not a top-10 team in this category, then our HC/OC aren’t running the right plays and scheme on offense.

With that, see below for the Week 1 rankings:

https://preview.redd.it/cy5vvcdqxbn51.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=937a06d943242e022cb7f800cf7b9e95661f25b2

As we can see, the Texans were tied with KC for #10 on the week, throwing on 52% of 1st/2nd down snaps in the 28 minutes of the game, indicating a very balanced game plan.

I’d like to see that number get higher as the season progresses, especially in Week 2 vs. Baltimore. We need to go for the jugular, put up points early, and force Lamar Jackson to pass the ball from the pocket.

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