Author: /u/curiousprospect

First of all, I want to say that the following is not cope, and is a truly held opinion.

If this team got the number one pick, there wouldn’t have been a real question as to who we would/should pick. Bryce Young would have been the pick, and the media narrative machine would have slated him at number one whether we liked it or not. When you have the number one, you want to be in a position like the Bears are in. They have total flexibility, and that allows them to create a smokescreen. Will they draft a QB and move on from Fields? Will they trade down for additional draft capital? Will they stand pat and draft a defensive player at one? Because these are valid questions, the value of their pick goes up, and the media scrutiny their final decision faces is minimal. It’s essentially a low stakes/high reward position–an optimal position.

The Texans, on the other hand, would have had a high stakes/high reward position. They’d be picking Bryce Young, and every team would know it. No value maximization for trading down. No flexibility with what to do with the pick. No mercy from the media if that pick eventually flops–which matters to GMs, and I believe factors into their decision-making whether we like it or not.

Picking at two has given the Texans a low stakes/high reward position, akin to the Bears. So why is picking at two significant?

• Caserio cannot fall back on Bryce Young as a “consensus” pick and ride the safety of that for the next three years as Young either pans out or busts.

• Caserio must conduct a full and sincere evaluation of every top prospect because who they pick is not predetermined.

• Caserio now has the flexibility to diverge from picking Bryce Young if he genuinely doesn’t like him as a prospect.

• Media scrutiny of the Texans’ pick at two will be mitigated in contrast to picking at one, which will allow for shrewder, rather than self-preserving, decision-making from the front office.

• The player we pick at two has as good a chance to succeed as the player picked at one. This is a murky draft, not an Andrew Luck draft.

My takeaway is that picking at two is not the end-of-franchise scenario that so many seem to think it is, but is in fact an opportunity for the Texans to make a shrewder decision than they might have made if they were given the first overall. I know this isn’t going to go over well with the people who believe this franchise is fundamentally idiotic and incapable of making a correct decision, but I think that Caserio may prove himself yet. At the very least he has to, if this franchise is going to have any hope for the near future.