Author: /u/codeskulptor

Pro Football Logic estimated injury risk to players using data from the 2015 season. Using their table, Hopkins would have approximately a 4.5% chance of missing games in a given season. Since he plays in every offensive snap and has such a high volume of targets, (gets hit more than average) we should assume that probability would be much higher.

As Hopkins’ contract negotiations are underway, getting 25 million in 2020 is not out of the question.

For 25 million in 2020 the Texans added David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, and Randall Cobb.

Using Pro Football Logic’s table, the odds of all three players getting hurt is:
(0.052) * (0.045) * (0.045) = 0.0001053 OR .01053%

So there is a 0.01053% that all three players are hurt vs. the 4.5% that D-hop gets hurt.

“But their injury history”

OK let’s double the chance of injury:

(0.104) * (0.09) * (0.09) = 0.0008424 OR 0.08424%

Injury risk table: https://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-injury-rate-analysis/

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They also have a great article about injuries they posted in 2019. Check out the section titled: “How Team Construction Can Affect Injury Impact“

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TLDR it’s better to have a deep team, than a top heavy one.

article: http://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-injury-point-value/

Option 1: Sign him to a 20-22 million dollar / year deal (not ideal)

Option 2: Trade sooner rather than later before the relationship gets more fragmented and his trade value diminishes entirely. This does right by Hopkins and allows us to get some value in return.

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Twitter event:

https://twitter.com/i/events/1252294718983004165?s=13

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For those that don’t know, Yannick went after the co-owner on twitter saying he has wanted out for a long time. There is no chance he plays for the Jaguars next year, but how does Jacksonville move him for any value in return at this point? I am not saying d-hop would necessarily go to these extreme measures, but if we did not restructure he would air his frustrations and we could not afford another Duane Brown situation in 2020-2021 (especially a player of DeAndre Hopkins’ caliber).

TLDR

Many have argued we could have kept DeAndre on his current contract but the situation was really not that simple.